孟加拉国被推翻的领导人谢赫·哈西娜希望获得一本新护照，以便下个月返回该国，这距离她在大规模起义迫使其下台后逃往印度已过去两年多。
– Bangladesh’s ousted leader Sheikh Hasina wants a new passport to return to the country next month, more than two years after fleeing to India following a mass uprising that forced her from power.
这位79岁的前总理去年因2024年对学生领导的抗议活动进行致命镇压，被缺席判处死刑，罪名是危害人类罪，她否认该指控。
The 79-year-old former prime minister was sentenced to death in absentia last year for crimes against humanity over a deadly crackdown on the student-led protests in 2024, a charge she denies.
如果她返回，将面临被绞死的前景，因为继任她的政府依然是她坚定的政治对手。
She faces the prospect of being hanged upon her return, as the government that succeeded her remains a staunch political opponent.
达卡已拒绝了护照申请，并向哈西娜发出挑战：如果她认真考虑回国，就向印度寻求引渡。孟加拉国外交国务部长胡马云·科比尔对半岛电视台表示：“孟加拉国不给杀害数千人并逃跑的恐怖分子发护照。将在现有的与印度的引渡安排下，追捕并让恐怖分子哈西娜被移交。”
Dhaka has already rejected the passport request and has challenged Hasina to seek extradition from India if she is serious about returning home“Bangladesh does not give passports to terrorists who kill thousands of people and flee. It will work under the current extradition arrangements with India to pursue and get the terrorist Hasina handed over,” State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir told Al Jazeera.
周二，达卡国际罪行法庭的孟加拉国检察官穆罕默德·阿米努尔·伊斯兰——他为哈西娜争取到了死刑判决——表示，如果她回国将被执行死刑。
On Tuesday, the Bangladeshi prosecutor Md Aminul Islam, who secured the death sentence for Hasina at the Dhaka-based International Crimes Tribunal, said she will be executed if she returns home.
伊斯兰对记者说：“谢赫·哈西娜别无选择，只能面对判决的执行。”
“Sheikh Hasina has no option but to face the execution of the verdict,” Islam told reporters.
那么，是什么促使哈西娜向新德里的孟加拉国高级专员公署申请新护照和国家身份证（因为她现有的证件已被吊销），她的打算是什么？“她知道自己的命运”哈西娜以铁腕统治孟加拉国近20年，在部分民众中仍享有支持，而许多人希望看到她被绞死。
So, what led Hasina to approach the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi, seeking a new passport and a national identity card since her existing documents have been revoked, and what is her game plan? ‘She knows what her fate is’Hasina ruled Bangladesh with an iron fist for nearly 20 years and still enjoys support among a section of its population, while many others want to see her hanged.
据联合国统计，2024年起义导致1400多人丧生，两年后，总理塔里克·拉赫曼的政府试图恢复稳定，哈西娜的回归可能加剧政治紧张局势。
Her return could worsen political tensions as Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s government tries to restore stability two years on from the 2024 uprising that led to the killing of more than 1,400 people, according to the United Nations.
但分析人士质疑，哈西娜是否真的打算回国面对法律制裁，还是在利用这一承诺，通过在印度的自我流亡来重振其政治命运。
But analysts question whether Hasina genuinely intends to return to face the law, or is using the promise to revive her political fortunes from self-imposed exile in India.
对于设在达卡的智库“治理研究中心”负责人齐卢尔·拉赫曼而言，哈西娜对护照的申请与其说是有迫在眉睫的回国计划，不如说是为了在试图保留对人民联盟党控制权的同时，让自己保持政治影响力。
For Zillur Rahman, president of the Centre for Governance Studies, a Dhaka-based think tank, Hasina’s passport request is less about an imminent plan to return and more about keeping herself politically relevant as she tries to retain control of her Awami League party.
“我认为她很清楚自己的命运是什么。但她想要的是让人民联盟的领导人和活动人士保持政治参与，”他在谈到哈西娜的政党时表示。该党由她的父亲、孟加拉国独立运动领袖谢赫·穆吉布·拉赫曼创立。
“I think she knows what her fate is. But what she wants is to keep Awami League leaders and activists politically engaged,” he said, referring to Hasina’s party, which was founded by her father and Bangladesh independence movement leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
“据我理解，在任何情况下她都不想把党内领导权交予他人。我认为这是她和该党面临的一个大问题。否则，该党或许会试图寻找生存之道。”曾在美国驻达卡大使馆担任副馆长的前美国外交官乔恩·F·达尼洛维奇则更为绝对。
“As far as I understand, she does not want to hand over the party’s leadership to anyone else under any circumstances. I think that is a major problem for her and for the party. Otherwise, the party might have tried to find a way to survive.”Jon F Danilowicz, a retired United States diplomat who once served as deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in Dhaka, was more categorical.
“哈西娜在12月回到孟加拉国的可能性为零。在我看来，这一切都只是一种虚张声势，旨在凝聚她的支持者，并扭转关于她在国内日益被边缘化的舆论叙事，”他告诉半岛电视台。
“There is zero chance that Hasina will return to Bangladesh in December. In my view, this has all been a bluff intended to rally her supporters and shift the narrative regarding her increasing irrelevance at home,” he told Al Jazeera.
孟加拉国企业研究所研究中心高级研究员法伊兹·索布汉也认为，哈西娜的承诺是为了提振她所在政党的士气。该党目前已被禁，许多领导人身陷囹圄或流亡在外。
Faiz Sobhan, senior research director at the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute research centre, also sees Hasina’s promise as an effort to lift the morale of her party, which is now banned, with many of its leaders in jail or in exile.
“这一宣布让谢赫·哈西娜保持了政治影响力，并让她得以试探国内的情绪，”他表示。“实际回国似乎是不可想象的，因为这意味着将面临绞刑，或者在铁窗后度过余生。”尽管分析人士对哈西娜回国的前景表示怀疑，但她的宣布似乎已经让一些人民联盟的领导人和支持者振作起来。
“The announcement keeps Sheikh Hasina politically relevant and lets her gauge the mood at home,” he said. “An actual return seems inconceivable, since it would mean facing the gallows or spending the rest of her life behind bars.”Despite analysts casting doubt on the prospect of Hasina’s return, her announcement appears to have energised some Awami League leaders and supporters.
“我们的领导人将会回来。他们以前曾试图阻止她，但他们没能阻止。他们再次阴谋对付她，但她会克服这些阴谋并回来，”该党中央执行委员会的一名组织书记对半岛电视台说。由于身在印度的流亡之中，他要求匿名。
“Our leader will return. They have tried to stop her before, but they could not stop her. They are conspiring against her again, but she will overcome these conspiracies and return,” an organising secretary of the party’s central executive committee told Al Jazeera, speaking on condition of anonymity from exile in India.
当被问及哈西娜将如何返回以及该党正在采取什么步骤来促成此事时，许多人民联盟领导人和支持者表示，他们对她的整体计划并不清楚。
When asked how Hasina would return and what steps the party was taking to facilitate it, many Awami League leaders and supporters said they had no clear idea about her game plan.
“但她已经宣布她会回来，我相信她无论如何都会在12月回来，”达卡的人民联盟积极分子、其学生翼前领导人阿尔曼·拉赫曼对半岛电视台说。印度问题 哈西娜的未来也与印度的算盘息息相关。
“But she has announced that she will return, and I believe she will come back in December, no matter what,” Arman Rahman, a Dhaka-based Awami League activist and former leader of its student wing, told Al Jazeera. The India question Hasina’s future is also tied to India’s calculations.
新德里曾是她数十年的亲密盟友，自她2024年8月逃离达卡以来一直为她提供庇护。但她持续留在印度已成为两国之间的一个争端点。
New Delhi, her close ally for decades, has sheltered her since she fled Dhaka in August 2024. But her continued presence has become a point of contention between the two countries.
达卡曾多次根据双边条约要求引渡哈西娜。新德里表示一直在审查这些请求，印度外交部曾在4月表示，希望“与新政府进行建设性接触，并进一步加强双边关系”。
Dhaka has repeatedly sought Hasina’s extradition under a bilateral treaty. New Delhi says it has been examining the requests, with India’s foreign ministry in April saying it wants to “engage constructively with the new government and further strengthen bilateral ties”.
谢赫·哈西娜于2026年1月23日在新德里通过视频向媒体发表讲话 [路透社/法新社] 与此同时，两国都已发出希望修复紧张关系的信号。
Sheikh Hasina addresses the media virtually in New Delhi on January 23, 2026 [Arun Sankar/AFP] Meanwhile, both countries have signalled an interest in repairing strained ties.
新德里附近的O·P·金达尔全球大学国际事务教授斯里拉达·达塔对半岛电视台表示，尽管印度正试图将哈西娜在其境内的滞留与对达卡的外交接触区分开来，但印度仍视哈西娜为长期朋友。
Sreeradha Datta, professor of international affairs at O P Jindal Global University near New Delhi, told Al Jazeera that India regards Hasina as a longstanding friend, even as it tries to separate her presence in the country from its diplomatic engagement with Dhaka.
“谢赫·哈西娜是印度的非常好的朋友。[新]德里视她为将永远支持的朋友。这是我们的官方立场，”她说。
“Sheikh Hasina is a very good friend of India. [New] Delhi looks at her as a friend whom it will always support. That is our official position,” she said.
前美国外交官达尼洛维奇认为，新德里越来越意识到继续收留哈西娜的外交代价，但“不太可能促成”她返回孟加拉国。
Former US diplomat Danilowicz believes New Delhi is increasingly aware of the diplomatic cost of continuing to host Hasina, but is “unlikely to facilitate” her return to Bangladesh.
他表示：“尽管印度国内可能仍有一些人认为哈西娜及其政党能为他们提供筹码，但莫迪政府现在一定已经明白，她继续留在新德里正在损害与孟加拉国关系正常化的努力。”
“While there may be some in India who still believe that Hasina and her party provide them leverage, by now the [Narendra] Modi government must understand the damage that her continued presence in New Delhi is doing to efforts to normalise relations with Bangladesh,” he said.
“我确信，莫迪政府很乐意看到哈西娜这个麻烦消失，包括让她找到第三国居住。”治理研究中心的拉赫曼则对印度为何尽管面临外交复杂局势、仍可能继续庇护哈西娜给出了另一种解释。
“I am certain the Modi government would love to see the Hasina problem go away, including by having her find a third country to reside.”Rahman, of the Centre for Governance Studies, offered a different explanation for why India may continue to shelter Hasina despite the diplomatic complications.
他表示：“我认为印度发现很难接受她的存在，但与此同时，印度也无法放任她离开。”
“I think India is finding it difficult to digest her presence, but at the same time, it cannot let her go either,” he said.
“如果印度现在不承担保护她的责任，其在南亚及其他地区的其他盟友可能会对新德里失去信任。他们可能会觉得，印度最终并不会保护那些曾坚定支持它的人。”拉赫曼认为，印度可能会继续为哈西娜提供庇护，但不太可能帮助她在孟加拉国恢复政治地盘。
“If India does not take responsibility for protecting her now, its other allies in South Asia and elsewhere may lose trust in New Delhi. They may feel that India does not ultimately protect those who have stood by it.”Rahman believes India may continue to offer Hasina refuge, but is unlikely to help restore her political domain in Bangladesh.
他表示：“我不认为印度会抛弃她。但与此同时，我也不认为印度会为她提供全方位的政治保护，尤其是协助她返回孟加拉国并在当地东山再起。”
“I don’t think India will abandon her. But at the same time, I don’t think it will provide her with all forms of political protection, particularly by helping her return to Bangladesh and reestablish herself here,” he said.
与此同时，达塔预计两国邻国关系不会立即改善。他表示：“我不认为孟加拉国与印度的关系会很快恢复正常。”与孟加拉国民族主义党达成协议可能吗？
Datta, meanwhile, does not expect imminent improvement in relations between the neighbours. “I don’t think Bangladesh-India relations will return to normalisation very soon,” he said. Is a deal with BNP possible?
许多人还在询问，哈西娜是否有可能与执政的孟加拉国民族主义党达成某种政治谅解。该党目前由拉赫曼总理掌控，他是哈西娜长期对手卡莉达·齐亚的儿子，卡莉达·齐亚于一年前去世。在哈西娜当政期间，拉赫曼本人曾流亡伦敦。
Many are also asking if Hasina could enter into some kind of a political understanding with the governing Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), now controlled by Prime Minister Rahman, son of Hasina’s longtime rival, Khaleda Zia, who passed away a year ago. Rahman himself lived in exile in London when Hasina was in power.
但分析人士认为达成此类协议的可能性微乎其微，孟加溯企业研究所的索班将这一想法形容为“根本行不通”。
But analysts see little possibility of such a deal, with the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute’s Sobhan describing the idea as a “non-starter”.
他对半岛电视台表示：“民族主义党通过与人民联盟达成任何妥协，得到的很少，失去的却很多。该党的基础选民花了一万六千多天（编注：原文为16-plus years，即16年以上）的时间遭受哈西娜的监禁、骚扰和排挤，任何出现协议迹象的做法都会被视为背叛。”
“The BNP has little to gain and much to lose from any accommodation with the Awami League. Its base spent 16-plus years being jailed, harassed and sidelined [by Hasina], and any hint of a deal would be seen as a betrayal,” he told Al Jazeera.
周一，孟加拉国民族主义党代理秘书长兼总理拉赫曼的政治顾问鲁胡尔·卡比尔·里兹维也排除了哈西娜回国的可能性。
On Monday, BNP acting secretary general and Prime Minister Rahman’s political adviser, Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, also dismissed the prospect of Hasina’s return.
里兹维在达卡的一次活动上表示：“如果她以为自己能够回来、重新实施法西斯主义并夺回王座，那她就是在自欺欺人。”
“She is deluding herself if she thinks she can return, reimpose fascism and reclaim her throne,” Rizvi said at an event in Dhaka.
索班表示，民族主义党政府在国际刑事法庭作出的判决之外几乎没有采取行动的空间。
Sobhan said the BNP government had little room to act outside the verdict delivered by the International Crimes Tribunal.
他说：“很难想象能有什么更广泛的和解来稳定国家，而没有问责或道歉的和解则更加艰难。”
“A broader settlement to stabilise the country is hard to imagine, and reconciliation without accountability or an apology is harder still,” he said.
索班补充说，引渡是达卡唯一可用的“正式途径”。“这意味着被拖回（孟加拉国），而不是选择回去。”
Extradition was the “only formal route” available to Dhaka, Sobhan added. “And it means being dragged back [to Bangladesh], not choosing to return.”