欧洲央行管理委员会委员马丁斯·卡扎克斯表示，欧洲央行在权衡遏制通胀的需求与对经济增长的负面影响时，未来将面临“更加微妙”的权衡。
The European Central Bank will face “more nuanced” trade-offs in future as it weighs the need to tame inflation against the fallout on growth, Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.
这位拉脱维亚决策者在里加接受彭博电视采访时表示，当前的情况可能会使12月有必要加息，但他警告称，关于收紧货币政策的判断正变得越来越微妙。
While the Latvian policymaker told Bloomberg Television in Riga that present conditions may make an interest-rate hike necessary in December, he cautioned that judgments about tightening are becoming more finely balanced.
卡扎克斯表示：“未来的权衡将变得更加微妙，因为归根结底，我们必须实现通货膨胀目标，但也不能以过度损害经济为代价。从今天的角度来看，到目前为止，似乎有必要进一步收紧政策。”欧洲央行正在评估还需要采取多少措施来控制目前达到2%目标两倍的通货膨胀。自2月美国袭击伊朗以来，该行已两次上调存款利率，官员们已暗示愿意在12月再次加息。不过，美国中期选举后油价的暴跌可能仍会缓和价格涨幅。
“Trade-offs are going to become more nuanced going forward, because at the end of the day we have to deliver on inflation, but also not at the cost of harming the economy too much,” Kazaks said. “So far, it seems that some further tightening, from today’s perspective, would be warranted.”The ECB is assessing how much more it must do to contain inflation that’s currently running at double the 2% target. It’s raised the deposit rate twice since the US attacked Iran in February, and officials have signaled a willingness to do so again in December. A slump in oil prices after US midterm elections, though, may yet temper price gains.
市场仍预计至少还会有两次25个基点的加息，能源成本的飙升可能会在一段时间内继续推高通胀。卡扎克斯认为利率处于对经济呈中性的区间上限，他拒绝揣测可能需要多少紧缩政策。
Markets still envisage at least two more quarter-point hikes, with the jump in energy costs likely to drive inflation for some time yet. Kazaks, who sees rates at the upper limit of a range that’s neutral for the economy, declined to speculate on how much tightening may be needed.
他说：“让我们看看数据会带来什么。我们也看到股市出现了一些回调，这可能也会进一步放慢经济增长。我们还看到政府债券收益率上升，这也可能会放慢一些经济增长。”尽管如此，他指出，消费价格风险目前依然十分明显。因此，他表示，货币政策应该具有“鹰派倾向”。
“Let’s see what the data brings in,” he said. “We’ve also seen some correction in the stock market and that might slow down growth further as well. We’ve also seen an increase in government bond yields, which might also slow down some economic growth.”Even so, consumer-price risks are very much there to see at present, he observed. Monetary policy should therefore have a “hawkish edge,” he said.
他说：“在通胀率为4及以上的情况下，当然存在这开始推高通胀预期的风险。如果确有必要，我认为我们不应该害怕谨慎上调利率。”周二早些时候，欧洲央行首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩对彭博表示，决策者应该在12月的下次会议上提高借贷成本，并指出通胀尚未见顶。
“With inflation at 4 and above, of course there are risks that this starts to push up inflation expectations,” he said. “I don’t see that we should be afraid to move interest rates cautiously up if it is necessary.”Earlier on Tuesday, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane told Bloomberg that policymakers should raise borrowing costs at their next meeting in December, observing that inflation has yet to peak.