民主党赢得连选举预测机构都未预料到的胜利The Democratic Wins No Election Forecaster Expected

A pediatrician, a former professor, and a minister with a shoestring campaign are among the Democrats headed to Congress after defeating Republican candidates few expected to lose.

A TIME analysis of 10 pre-election forecasts found more than a dozen House races that Democrats won that every forecaster rated either as tilting, leaning, likely, or even safe Republican or as a toss-up .

Some Democratic candidates had experience as mayors or state lawmakers, but many are political newcomers. Several won despite significantly smaller campaign spending.

Many of the races mark the first time a Democrat has been elected in years. In South Carolina, Annie Andrews will become the state’s first Democratic senator in more than two decades.

Several more potential upsets remain in races that have yet to be called by the Associated Press as of Nov. 10, one week after Election Day. In Mississippi , which all 10 forecasters rated Republican, Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom leads Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. If he wins, he would be the state’s first Democratic Senate winner since 1982 and its first Black senator since the Reconstruction era.

Colom posted on social media Monday that the “prognosticators” that had written off his and other races in traditionally deep-red parts of the country as solid Republican “made it much more difficult to fundraise and are part of the reason the South has been neglected for so long.”He added: “They’re only a reflection of the past and mysteriously avoid any accountability when they’re wrong.”

The election forecasters TIME examined—Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings, Inside Elections, Race to the WH, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR Deluxe model, Split Ticket, and The Economist —largely saw the blue wave coming. But none foresaw just how big it would be. Here are the races they got wrong in the 2026 midterm elections . Florida’s 9th district

Rep. Darren Soto (D, Fla.) arrives for a subcommittee hearing in the Rayburn House Office Building in Washington, D.C., on July 22, 2026. —Bill Clark—CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images Democratic incumbent Darren Soto won reelection to a sixth term, narrowly defeating GOP challenger Dan Green, in a race that six forecasters rated in favor of the Republican. The other four rated it as a toss-up. Soto’s victory, which the AP called a week after Election Day, means Democrats have successfully defended all four seats that Republicans targeted through redistricting in Florida.

Republicans redrew the boundaries of Soto’s district earlier this year to add Republican areas south of Orlando, transforming a Harris-carried district into one that President Donald Trump would have won by 18 points in the 2024 presidential election. It also reduced its Hispanic population. Soto became the first person of Puerto Rican descent to represent Florida when he entered Congress in 2017.

Soto’s campaign outspent Green’s: $3.4 million to $2.2 million , according to campaign disclosures through Oct. 14. Independent spending also favored Soto. Outside groups reported $4.3 million in general election spending in favor of Soto, including $3 million from House Majority PAC against Green, according to Federal Election Commission filings through Nov. 9.

Outside groups spent $2.6 million on Green’s side. Both candidates campaigned on affordability , but where Green emphasized deregulation and working with Trump, Soto focused on reversing tariffs, protecting Medicare and Social Security, and reducing war spending . Indiana’s 5th district Rep.-elect J.D. Ford (D, Ind.) arrives for the first day of new member orientation at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 9, 2026. —Allison Robbert—AP

J.D. Ford, a Democratic state senator in Indiana, will become Indiana’s first openly gay member of Congress. He defeated Republican three-term Rep. Victoria Spartz in a district that Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. Not a single forecaster rated the race even as a toss-up.

Ford is the first Democrat elected to the district since Jim Jontz in 1990, although its boundaries have changed substantially since then. Ford raised nearly $800,000 less than his opponent, although outside spending favored Ford. Around $4.2 million was spent to support him or attack Spartz, as compared to $1.3 million to support Spartz or attack Ford, according to FEC filings through Nov. 6.

Missouri’s 2nd district Rep.-elect Fred Wellman (D, Mo.) speaks to the media in Washington on Nov. 8, 2026. —Aaron Schwartz—Getty Images Fred Wellman has become the first Democrat elected in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district since Joan Kelly Horn in 1990. The podcaster and Army veteran defeated seven-term incumbent Ann Wagner, a Republican, by more than 16,000 votes. Wellman was a first-time candidate.

Inside Elections rated the race Solid Republican, while six other forecasters rated it tilt, lean, or likely Republican. Wellman’s campaign spent $1.9 million through Oct. 14, while Wagner’s spent $5.7 million—almost three times as much. General election outside spending also favored Wagner, with $980,000 spent to support her or attack Wellman, while $387,000 was spent to support Wellman or attack Wagner.

North Carolina’s 6th district Rep.-elect Cyril Jefferson (D, N.C.) walks through the Capitol basement during new member orientation on Nov. 9, 2026. —Allison Robbert—AP Cyril Jefferson, the youngest elected mayor of High Point and the city’s second Black mayor, beat incumbent Addison McDowell. McDowell had won in 2024 without a Democratic nominee on the ballot after redistricting prompted Democrat Kathy Manning to retire.

Jefferson’s campaign spent around $224,000 through mid-October, compared to McDowell’s campaign spending of $1.3 million—more than five times as much. Outside spending in support of Jefferson totalled just $211 .

Jefferson told Axios that national groups repeatedly dismissed the district as “nowhere on our radar.”Of the 10 forecasters TIME analyzed, seven rated the race as safe or solid Republican, while the other three rated it as likely Republican—the strongest rating short of safe or solid. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) didn’t even name the race as one of its “ Districts in Play .”North Carolina’s 9th district Rep.-elect Richard Ojeda (D, N.C.) speaks to the media in Washington on Nov. 8, 2026. —Aaron Schwartz—Getty Images

Richard Ojeda II beat incumbent Richard Hudson, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is responsible for electing House Republicans. Ojeda is a former West Virginia state senator and an Army veteran who served for 24 years, including 15 at Fort Bragg. He previously unsuccessfully ran for U.S. Congress in West Virginia and mounted a short-lived 2020 presidential campaign.

Ojeda’s campaign reported spending $2.9 million , compared with Hudson’s $3.9 million, although outside groups spent more than $390,000 supporting Ojeda or opposing Hudson, compared with just $6,000 spent for Hudson.

Hudson is serving his seventh term in Congress since 2013. Fox News rated the race as Solid Republican, while the other nine forecasters all rated it as likely Republican. North Carolina’s 13th district Rep-elect Paul Barringer, then the Democratic nominee for North Carolina’s 13th congressional district, smiles during an interview in Garner, N.C., on Oct. 8, 2026. —Matt Ramey—AP Photo Paul Barringer, a lawyer, healthcare consultant, and tree farmer, defeated Republican first-term incumbent Brad Knott. Barringer has not previously held elected office. A former Republican, he switched parties before running, and his campaign emphasized cooperation across party lines.

Barringer’s campaign spent around $800,000 —about a quarter less than Knott’s $1.1 million. FEC data compiled as of Nov. 6 showed no reported outside spending for or against either candidate.

The district last elected a Democrat in 2022, when Wiley Nickel won. Republican legislators subsequently redrew the district boundaries to remove Democratic voters around Raleigh and include Republican rural areas. Nickel declined to seek re-election in 2024. All 10 forecasters TIME analyzed rated the 2026 race as likely Republican. North Carolina’s 14th district Rep.-elect LaKesha Womack (D, N.C.) speaks to reporters in Washington on Nov. 8, 2026. —Tom Williams—CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images

LaKesha Womack, a political newcomer, beat Republican first-term incumbent Tim Moore. Womack had among the smallest campaign spending at $55,600 , compared to Moore’s $1.9 million . She also received almost no outside financial support, with reported general election spending in support of her totalling just $122 . By comparison, outside groups spent $183,000 for Moore.

Meanwhile, Republicans spent more than $1 million on media advertising in the race, according to AdImpact data cited by the Times , while Democrats spent nothing.

Moore was North Carolina’s longest-serving state House speaker before entering Congress. He helped shape the 2023 Republican redistricting plan, and not even the DCCC considered the 2026 race as “in play.”Five election forecasters rated the 2026 race as safe or solid Republican while the other five rated it as likely Republican.

Womack, a minister and business consultant, spoke during her campaign about becoming unhoused after a medical emergency left her in intensive care. Her platform prioritized health care and housing affordability. New Jersey’s 2nd district Rep.-elect Zack Mullock (D, N.J.) speaks to the media in Washington on Nov. 8, 2026. —Aaron Schwartz—Getty Images Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock defeated four-term Rep. Jeff Van Drew in a district where Trump won by 13 points in the 2024 presidential election.

Van Drew originally won the seat as a Democrat in 2018, but switched parties in 2019 during Trump’s first impeachment.

Mullock told the New York Times that he never expected to win but nevertheless ran out of a desire to challenge the Trump Administration. Split Ticket rated the race as Safe Republican, while all nine other forecasters rated it lean or likely Republican.

Mullock’s campaign spent $856,000 through Oct. 14, while Van Drew’s campaign spent $2.3 million. Mullock’s campaign never received financial support from the DCCC, the Times reported, even though the race was on its “Districts in Play” fundraising targets list. Mullock nevertheless benefitted from heavy independent spending against Van Drew.

Outside groups spent $1.9 million for Mullock or against Van Drew, compared to $601,000 for Van Drew. Nevada’s 2nd district Rep.-elect Teresa Benitez-Thompson, then a Democratic candidate in Nevada’s 2nd congressional district, poses during a campaign event in Incline Village, Nev., on June 11, 2026. —William Hale Irwin—AP Teresa Benitez-Thompson became the first Democrat ever elected to Nevada’s 2nd congressional district, winning a race that not a single forecaster TIME analyzed had rated as even a toss-up, though Republican retiring Rep. Mark Amodei, who had won the district by 19 points in 2024, had said the seat was “ at risk ” due to the Trump-endorsed GOP nominee seeking to replace him.

Benitez-Thompson, a former Nevada Assembly majority leader and social worker, defeated Republican David Flippo, a small business owner whom Amodei refused to endorse over controversies related to Flippo’s military record as well as personal and campaign finances.

Benitez-Thompson’s campaign spent around $873,000 , compared with Flippo’s $2.8 million. The race attracted $6.5 million of general election outside spending —the most that district has ever seen, according to the Nevada Independent —$2.5 million of which supported Benitez-Thompson or attacked Flippo. Ohio’s 10th district Rep.-elect Kristina Knickerbocker, then the Democratic candidate for Ohio’s 10th congressional district, conducts a roundtable on childcare costs in Dayton, Ohio, on Oct. 21, 2026. —Tom Williams—CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images

Kristina Knickerbocker narrowly defeated 12-term incumbent Mike Turner, flipping the district blue. Only FiftyPlusOne had rated the race as a toss-up, while nine other forecasters rated it as lean or likely Republican.

Turner spent about $538,000 more on his campaign than Knickerbocker, an Air Force veteran and nurse practitioner who has not previously held elected office. But independent spending favored the Democrat, with outside groups spending around $7.7 million , including $4.6 million from House Majority PAC, on helping Knickerbocker defeat Turner. Outside groups spent $4.5 million for Turner or against Knickerbocker.

The last Democrat elected to the district was Dennis Kucinich in 2010, before the district was redrawn from the Cleveland area to the Dayton area. Ohio’s 15th district Rep.-elect Don Leonard, then the Democratic candidate for Ohio’s 15th congressional district, talks with voters in Circleville, Ohio, on Oct. 23, 2026. —Tom Williams—CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images Don Leonard beat three-term incumbent Mike Carey in a race that, like Ohio’s 10th district, only FiftyPlusOne had rated as a toss-up, while the other forecasters rated it as lean or likely Republican.

The district last elected a Democrat in 2008, when Mary Jo Kilroy won under different boundaries.

Leonard, a former college professor at Ohio State, was a first-time candidate who defeated the Democrats’ 2024 nominee, Adam Miller, in the primary. Leonard’s campaign spent around $1.2 million through Oct. 14, compared with Carey’s $4 million. House Majority PAC spent another $2.5 million against Carey, contributing to a total of $6.5 million of outside spending on Leonard’s side. Outside groups spent $5.1 million on Carey’s side.

South Carolina’s 1st district Rep.-elect Nancy Lacore, then the Democratic candidate for South Carolina’s 1st congressional district, speaks to campaign staff and volunteers during a canvassing kickoff at her camapign headquarters in Mt. Pleasant, S.C., on Sept. 26, 2026. —Bill Clark—CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images Nancy Lacore, a retired Navy vice admiral who was dismissed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in 2025 and has not previously held elected office, defeated Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt in the open race to represent South Carolina’s 1st district.

Democrat Joe Cunningham previously flipped the seat in 2018, then lost to Republican Nancy Mace in 2020. Mace did not pursue reelection this year to pursue an unsuccessful run for governor.

Lacore’s campaign spent around $4.7 million against Honeycutt’s $984,000, although Honeycutt benefitted from $7.5 million in outside spending , compared to $3.7 million for Lacore.

Cook Political Report and Race to the WH rated the race as a toss-up, while eight other forecasters rated it as tilt, lean, or likely Republican. Texas’s 9th district Rep.-elect Leticia Gutierrez (D, Texas) speaks at an Election Night rally in Baytown, Texas, on Nov. 3, 2026. —Jason Fochtman—Houston Chronicle/Getty Images Leticia Gutierrez, a former Houston government aide and environmental advocate, beat Republican small business owner and veteran Alex Mealer in a district that the GOP redrew last year.

The redrawn boundaries transformed a Democratic-held district into an area that Trump had carried in 2024 by nearly 20 points. Still, Gutierrez won by 15.1 points despite her campaign spending considerably less —$104,000 in total—than Mealer’s $2.6 million. She was supported by an additional $268,000 in outside spending, compared with $3.1 million on Mealer’s side.

Gutierrez, a first-time candidate, told the AP that Democrats and donors considered her district a lost cause. Not a single forecaster that TIME analyzed rated the race even as a toss-up.

Gutierrez’s surprise victory retains the Democratic hold on the district. Democrat Al Green had represented the district since 2005 and won unopposed in 2024, but the redistricting moved him into a different congressional contest, in which he lost the Democratic primary.

Gutierrez’s win comes amid a broader blue wave in Texas and marks one of the largest Democratic shifts across the country, shifting the district around 35 percentage points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. Texas’s 23rd district Rep.-elect Katy Padilla Stout (D, Texas) gives remarks to the media outside the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 8, 2026. —Aaron Schwartz—Getty Images Katy Padilla Stout, an attorney and former teacher who has not held elected office before, defeated Republican gun rights activist Brandon Herrera for the seat previously held by Republican Tony Gonzales, who dropped his re-election bid and later resigned from Congress amid an ethics investigation regarding a sexual affair with a former staffer.

Three election forecasters rated the race as a toss-up while seven rated it as lean or likely Republican. Padilla Stout, who is the district’s first Democratic winner since Pete Gallego in 2012, spent roughly $973,000 on her campaign, compared to Herrera’s $2.8 million, though she was helped by outside groups spending around $4.8 million for her or against Herrera. Outside groups spent $3.1 million on Herrera’s side.

South Carolina Senate Sen.-elect Annie Andrews (D, S.C.) arrives at the Capitol for new member orientation on Nov. 9, 2026. —Win McNamee—Getty Images Annie Andrews became the first woman elected to the Senate from South Carolina and the first Democrat elected to the Senate from the state since Fritz Hollings in 1998. Andrews beat Republican incumbent Darline Graham , who had been appointed after the death of her brother, longtime Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham , in July.

Andrews, a pediatrician who had never held elected office and ran unsuccessfully for the House in 2022, was helped by heavy campaign spending— $22.5 million against Graham’s $1.28 million . Nevertheless, her victory was surprising. Of the eight 2026 U.S. Senate races that at least one forecaster had rated a toss-up , it was the only one where not a single forecaster had rated the race as tilting, leaning, or likely Democrat. (Democrats won all of those races, except for Alaska, which remains uncalled.)

Seven rated the South Carolina race as tilt, lean, or likely Republican, while three rated it a toss-up.