波兰的民主正面临前所未有的危险。克拉科夫近日发生了一起前所未有且悲剧性的大规模枪击案，使全国陷入哀悼。11月7日，一名据当局称对极右翼着迷的年轻人，持自动武器枪杀六人、致约15人受伤，后在被警方击伤送医途中因伤势过重死亡。
Poland's democracy is facing unprecedented dangers. The recent unprecedented and tragic mass shooting in Krakow has plunged the country into a national mourning period. On November 7, a young man, whom the authorities said had been fascinated by the far right, killed six people and wounded about 15 others with an automatic firearm before dying from his injuries in a hospital after being shot by police.
普遍的感觉是，一条红线已被跨越。据中间偏右的总理唐纳德·图斯克表示，虽然“波兰正在发生变化”，但却是“向坏的方向发展”。暴力已笼罩波兰社会，该社会本已严重分裂，且在秋季开学之初接连发生校园持刀袭击案，随后在10月中旬又挫败了一起针对总理和国防部长的极右翼阴谋。
The widespread sense is that a line has been crossed. According to center-right Prime Minister Donald Tusk, while "things are changing in Poland," it is "for the worse." Violence has gripped Polish society, which was already deeply divided and rocked by a series of knife attacks in schools at the start of the autumn academic year, followed by a thwarted far-right plot targeting the prime minister and defense minister in mid-October.
这一系列事件反映出波兰严重两极分化的政治局势日益激进化，其中民主派与来自法律与公正党（PiS）的民族主义者及极右翼势力对峙。数月来，这种冲突导致该国宪法法院陷入瘫痪，因为决心削弱中间偏右政府的民族主义总统卡罗尔·纳夫罗茨基，行使否决权阻挠政府任命新法官。局势在10月30日几近崩溃边缘，当时防暴警察被调往最高法院维护秩序，此前该院院长已被停职。
This string of incidents reflects the radicalization of Poland's deeply polarized political scene, in which democrats have been confronting nationalists from the Law and Justice party (PiS) and the far right. For months, their conflict has paralyzed the country's Constitutional Tribunal, as nationalist President Karol Nawrocki, determined to undermine the center-right, has blocked the government's appointment of new judges by wielding his veto. The situation nearly reached a breaking point on October 30, when riot police were called in to protect the Supreme Court after its president was suspended.
图斯克呼吁全国团结，但可能还不够。在经历了破坏法治、灾难性的法律与公正党政府之后，现任总理于2023年重新掌权，但执政这些年他的支持率不断被消磨。波兰公众批评他未能兑现部分社会承诺。法律专家谴责他恢复宪法法庭的做法。与此同时，由于缺乏稳固的议会多数，他的政府在推进民主转型方面难以像匈牙利那样成功。
Tusk's calls for national unity may not be enough. Having returned to power in 2023 after a disastrous PiS administration that undermined the rule of law, the current prime minister has seen his popularity worn down over his years in power. The Polish public has criticized him for not having kept some of his social promises. Legal experts have denounced his approach to restoring the Constitutional Tribunal. Meanwhile, lacking a solid parliamentary majority, his government has struggled to conduct its democratic transition as successfully as Hungary did.
尽管如此，欧洲人必须团结在图斯克周围。首先，因为波兰已成为乌克兰的后方基地，在乌克兰抵抗俄罗斯侵略时予以支持。事实上，周一，波兰主办了“意愿联盟”首次为期一个月的多国军事演习的启动仪式。该联盟的任务是在战后时期保卫乌克兰领土。
The Europeans must nonetheless close ranks around Tusk. First, because Poland has become Ukraine's rear base, supporting it as it resists Russian aggression. Indeed, on Monday, Poland hosted the launch of the first month-long multinational military exercise conducted by the "coalition of the willing," the group tasked with defending Ukrainian territory in the postwar period.
华沙如今坚定地守卫着民主欧洲的边界，抵御专制的俄罗斯。俄罗斯采用在整个欧洲大陆都能见到的策略，通过不间断的宣传，利用波兰社会中的每一处分歧。莫斯科尤其着力煽动日益高涨的反乌克兰情绪，尽管来自乌克兰的150万难民融入相对顺利，该国经济也保持强劲增长。这种种族主义情绪也受到法律与公正党的鼓励，该党毫不犹豫地两面下注，尽管它仍继续支持基辅。
Warsaw now firmly guards democratic Europe's border against autocratic Russia, which, using tactics seen across the continent, has exploited every division in Polish society through its relentless propaganda. Moscow has notably worked to stoke rising anti-Ukrainian sentiment, even though the integration of 1.5 million refugees from Ukraine has gone relatively smoothly, amid the country's robust economic growth. This racism has also been encouraged by PiS, which has not hesitated to play both sides, despite its continued support for Kyiv.
波兰是欧盟第六大经济体，很快还将拥有欧洲规模最大的军队，如今在欧洲大陆拥有重要影响力。因此，波兰政府的命运应当前所未有地凝聚欧洲人，因为民主国家完全有理由担心，与极右翼结盟的法律与公正党可能在2027年即将举行的选举中重新掌权。
Poland, the European Union's sixth-largest economy and which will soon also have Europe's largest army, now has significant influence on the continent. The fate of the Polish government should, therefore, rally Europeans as never before, as democracies have every reason to fear the prospect of PiS, which is allied with the far right, returning to power in the upcoming 2027 elections.