在过去几天里，与以激烈争吵和人身攻击贴身肉搏为特征的竞选活动形成鲜明对比，以色列现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡谈起了民族团结，并呼吁与在十月大选中险胜其执政联盟的反对派阵营携手合作。
In the last few days, in marked contrast to an election campaign defined by its bitterness and the closeness of its personal attacks, Israel’s current prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of national unity and coming together with the opposition bloc that edged out his ruling coalition in October’s election.
周六，即以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格授任前参谋长加迪·艾森科特组建一支能够掌控议会（克内塞特）的政府的同一天，内塔尼亚胡在其社交媒体账号上发布视频，声称如果在阿拉伯政党支持下组建政府，以色列将面临内战的真实风险，他指责这些政党想要“消灭以色列国”。
On Saturday, the same day that Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot with forming a government capable of commanding the Knesset, Netanyahu published a video on his social media account claiming Israel to be facing the genuine risk of civil war i f a government were established with the support of Arab parties which he accused of wanting to “eliminate the State of Israel”.
两天后，内塔尼亚胡在另一段视频中再次提及生存威胁，呼吁胜选阵营的领导人认清“当务之急”，在他的领导下加入一个统一政府，该政府还将包括极端正统派政党——据悉其中至少有一个正在与艾森科特磋商——以及总理有争议的极右翼盟友贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇和伊塔马尔·本-格维尔。
Two days later, Netanyahu returned to the theme of existential threat in a further video, calling upon the leaders of the more successful bloc to recognise the “needs of the hour” and join, under his leadership, a single unified government that would also include the ultra-Orthodox parties, at least one of which is understood to be in talks with Eisenkot, as well as the prime minister’s controversial allies on the far right, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.
“目前一切都还是博弈。这是杠杆，这是争强好胜，这是心理战，这是舆论造势，这是反制舆论造势，”以色列前政府顾问丹尼尔·列维谈及组建政府前必然漫长而复杂的谈判时表示。目前，随着新一届内阁（Knesset）于周二宣誓就职，猜测的焦点集中在极端正统派（哈雷迪）政党的角色上。这些政党传统上支持内塔尼亚胡，以换取措施保护其年轻男性经学院学生免于服兵役，这违背了最高法院2024年6月的裁决。
战略 尽管如此，无论内塔尼亚胡过去为其成员提供了何种政治庇护，有迹象表明，极端正统派政党之一“统一托拉犹太教党”（UTJ）——该党拒绝背书总统指定内塔尼亚胡组建政府——正准备倒向艾森科特一边，反对派主要人物阿维格多·利伯曼的异议据称在以下前景面前已归于平静：要么与阿拉伯政党之一结盟，要么继续忍受利伯曼的死敌内塔尼亚胡的统治以及再次大选的前景。
“It’s all a game at the moment. It’s leverage, it’s one-upmanship, it’s psyops, it’s spin, it’s counter-spin,” former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy said of the invariably long and complex negotiations that take place ahead of establishing a government, Currently, with the new Knesset being sworn in on Tuesday, speculation is focussing on the role of the Ultra Orthodox, or haredim, parties, which have traditionally offered support to Netanyahu in return for measures shielding their young male yeshiva students from the military draft in defiance off a Super Court ruling of June 2024 Strategy Nevertheless, irrespective of the past political cover offered to their members by Netanyahu, there are suggestions that one of the Ultra Orthodox parties United Torah Judaism (UTJ) – which refused to endorse Netanyahu’s selection to build a government by the President – is preparing to throw in behind Eisenkot, with the objections of one of the opposition’s principal figures Avigdor Lieberman said to be quieted in the face of either partnering with one of the Arab parties or the continued rule of Lieberman’s nemesis, Netanyahu and the prospect of further elections.
雅沙尔党领袖加迪·艾森科特受命尝试组建政府，以取代现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的右翼联盟 [法新社]“‘这纯粹是政治策略，’内塔尼亚胡前助手、以色列民调专家米切尔·巴拉克在耶路撒冷表示。‘但他处于弱势地位进行谈判。有了统一托拉犹太教党，艾森科特手握67个席位，’他说到获得120席内阁工作多数所需的数字，‘所以，内塔尼亚胡当然会竭尽全力巩固自己的集团；’巴拉克谈及许多人视为关乎内塔尼亚胡个人政治前途的谈判时说道。
Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot has been tasked with attempting to form a government that will succeed the right wing coalition led by incumbent prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu [AFP]“‘It’s political strategy, that’s all,” Netanyahu’s former aide, Israeli pollster Mitchell Barak said from Jerusalem. ‘But he’s negotiating from a weakened position. With the UTJ, Eisenkot’s got 67 seats,’ he said of the numbers needed to gain a working majority in the 120 seat Knesset, “so, of course, Netanyahu’s going to do all he can to reinforce his bloc; Barak said of negotiations regarded by many as critical to Netanyahu’s personal future.
内塔尼亚胡面临若干挑战，这些挑战直接关乎他的政治遗产和个人自由，一旦艾森科特成功接替他，他将彻底失去对这些事务的影响力。
Netanyahu faces a number of challenges that speak directly to both his political legacy and personal freedom that he will lose all influence over should Eisenkot succeed him.
首要的可能是他目前正在受审的多项腐败指控，尽管他声称无辜，并已预先向该国总统、其前政治对手伊萨克·赫尔佐格提出请愿。其次，更紧迫的是关于他及其政府在10月7日哈马斯发动袭击前的所谓失职问题，该袭击引发了以色列对加沙发动的种族灭绝，以及近年来以色列非地区邻国发动的多次袭击和攻击。
Foremost are like to be the multiple corruption charges that is is presently on trial for and, despite his claims of innocence that he has already preemptively petitioned the country’s President and his former political rival, Isaac Herzog for. Secondly, and more pressingly is the question of his and his government’s culpability for the alleged failings ahead of the October 7 Hamas led attack that triggered the genocide unleashed upon Gaza by Israel and the multiple strikes and attacks launched by Israel non regional neighbors in the years since.
新议会，新危险 周二宣誓就职的许多新任议员，包括丧亲家属、预备役军人、为当天被掳走的250名左右以色列人奔走的倡导者，以及艾森科特本人——他在随后的种族灭绝中失去了一名儿子和两名侄子——都与10月7日袭击及其后续战争有直接关联，共同构成了一个议院，据称在那里，对10月7日袭击的情绪以及对其责任归属的争论都接近爆发点。
New Knesset, new danger Many of the new MKs being sworn in on Tuesday, including bereaved family members, reservists, advocates for the 250 or so Israelis taken captive that day and Eisenkot himself, who lost a son and two nephews in the genocide that followed, are all tied directly to October 7 and the wars that followed together creating a chamber where feelings over the October 7 attack and where culpability for its lies are said to run close to the surface.
特别是，关注点很可能会尖锐地聚焦在内塔尼亚胡本人身上，包括他袭击前所谓的误判、关于大量错过预警的传闻，以及随后被指控拖延战争、或为其个人政治目的牺牲人质福祉。反对派在议会工作首日的主要目标之一，预计将是推举马坦·卡哈纳——艾森科特领导的“雅沙尔”（“正直”）党成员、主张对内塔尼亚胡和政府在哈马斯发动袭击前的失职进行国家调查的积极倡导者。
In particular, attention is likely to focus sharply on Netanyahu himself, whose supposed miscalculations ahead of the attack, stories of numerous missed warnings and who was subsequently accused of dragging out the war, or sacrificing the welfare off the captives for his own political ends. Key among the opposition’s aims for the first day of parliamentary business is set to be the installation of Matan Kahana, a member of Eisenkot’s Yashar (“straight”) party and a keen advocate of a state inquiry into Netanyahu and the government’s failings ahead of the Hamas led attack.
“由于有如此多的人与10月7日有如此直接的联系，这将升高温度，但事情已经变得如此政治化，一方的胜利自动成为另一方的失败，因此右翼的丧亲家属可以说我们需要以我儿子的名义增加军事主义，而中间派的丧亲家属则说我们需要征召更多人。”
“Having so many people connected so directly to October 7 is going to increase the temperature, but it’s become so politicized that a win for one side automatically becomes a loss for the other, so the bereaved family on the right can say we need to increase our militarism in honor of my son, and the bereaved family in the center says we need to enlist more people.
“内塔尼亚胡可以试图影响这一点，但很长一段时间以来，他似乎第一次有点迷失了，”以色列政治分析师尼姆罗德·弗拉申伯格说。
“Netanyahu can try to influence that but for the first time in a long time, he seems a bit lost,” Israeli political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg said.
然而，无论内塔尼亚胡有多迷失，或者他关于即将爆发内战或死于地区对手之手的说法有多站得住脚，归根结底，他的政治前途，甚至个人命运，现在掌握在一个在数量上超过他自己的反对派，以及一个渴望彻查过去错误的动荡不安的议会手中。
However, how lost Netanyahu may be, or how grounded his claims of pending civil war or destruction at the hands of regional adversaries may be, ultimately, his political and potentially personal fate now lies with an opposition that outstrips his own numerically and a volatile Knesset eager to comb over the mistakes of the past.
“另一方没有意愿与内塔尼亚胡组建团结政府，”列维说，“唯一可能出现这种情况的真实情形，是如果他能制造一场安全紧急状态，”他在周末之后表示，当时英国媒体报道称，内塔尼亚胡每天都给特朗普政府打电话，敦促重启对伊朗的战争。
“There’s no appetite on the other side to go in with Netanyahu for a unity government,” Levy said,“The only real circumstances under which that happen is if he can create a security emergency,” he said following a weekend where the UK press had reported daily phone calls from Netanyahu to the Trump administration urging renewed war on Iran.