柏林，11月11日——德国经济专家委员会周三大幅上调了对这个欧洲最大经济体的增长预测，同时警告政府必须控制国防和退休福利支出，以遏制失控的赤字。
BERLIN, Nov 11 - Germany’s Council of Economic Experts significantly revised up its growth forecasts for Europe’s largest economy on Wednesday, while warning the government must rein in spending on defence and retirement benefits to get runaway deficits under control.
这个由五名独立顾问组成的小组，其评估受到柏林方面密切关注。该小组将2026年增长预测上调逾一倍至1.3%，并预测明年增长1%。
The five-member panel of independent advisors, whose assessments are closely watched by Berlin, more than doubled its 2026 forecast to 1.3%, and predicts growth of 1% next year.
这与政府和主要经济研究所的预测大体一致，也高于5月份对本年0.5%、对2027年0.8%的增长预估。
That is broadly in line with the government’s and leading economic institutes’ projections and marks an increase from May estimates of 0.5% growth for this year and 0.8% for 2027.
通胀率预计也将从去年的2.2%升至今年的2.8%，明年升至3.3%。
Inflation is also expected to climb to 2.8% this year and 3.3% next year from 2.2% last year.
委员会主席莫妮卡·施尼策尔表示，前景更为乐观的原因是，经济从伊朗战争引发的能源冲击中复苏的速度快于预期，出口也强于预期。
The more optimistic outlook was due to a quicker-than-expected recovery from the energy shocks created by the Iran war and stronger-than-forecast exports, said council chair Monika Schnitzer.
“我们正看到经济明显回升，驱动力是出人意料强劲的出口和高水平的政府支出，”她在周三的新闻发布会上向总理弗里德里希·默茨递交委员会年度报告时说道。
"We are seeing a clear economic upturn, driven by surprisingly strong exports and high levels of government spending," she said, while handing the council’s annual report to Chancellor Friedrich Merz at a Wednesday press conference.
默茨表示，鉴于德国面临诸多危机，他并未必然预料到会如此正面地上修预测。“这些迹象对企业和全德国的家庭来说都令人鼓舞，”他说。
Merz said that he had not necessarily expected such a positive revision given the many crises facing Germany. "These are encouraging signs for businesses, as well as for private households throughout Germany," he said.
除了在基础设施和国防上的创纪录支出外，默茨还承诺推行结构性改革以保障公共财政，包括全面改革养老金制度。
Alongside record spending on infrastructure and defence, Merz has pledged structural reforms to safeguard public finances, including an overhaul of the pension system.
政策制定者将面临“艰难抉择” 然而，委员会警告称，联邦预算缺口将不断扩大，需要更多举债或紧缩措施。
POLICYMAKERS WILL FACE ’TOUGH DECISIONS’ However, the council warned that there would be a growing gap in the federal budget that would require even more debt or austerity measures.
专家小组预测，到2040年，赤字将达到年度经济产出的2.7%至4.8%之间，而这一部分并未被当前的预算预测所覆盖。
The expert panel predicts that the deficit would reach between 2.7% and 4.8% of annual economic output that was not covered by current budgeting projections by 2040.
施尼策表示：“政策制定者将无法避免做出艰难决定。”他并补充说，仅依靠额外的经济增长来解决预算问题并非可行之道。
"Policymakers will be unable to avoid making tough decisions," said Schnitzer, adding that relying solely on additional economic growth to resolve budget issues was not a viable solution.
从数学上看，这种做法所需的增长率“将是过去50年未曾见过的水平”。
Mathematically, such an approach would require growth rates "the likes of which we have not seen in the past 50 years".
默茨表示，他的政府充分意识到国家面临需要资金支持的各项挑战，并将尽一切努力维持其最高的AAA信用评级。
Merz said that his government was fully aware of the challenges facing the country that require funding and would do everything in its power to maintain its top AAA credit rating.
财政部长拉尔斯·克林拜尔周三在另一场活动中表示，削减成本的措施已经在推进，2027年预算中此前340亿欧元（380亿美元）的缺口现已填补。2027年预算的最终细节将于周四由联邦议院下院敲定。
Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said at a separate event on Wednesday that cost-cutting measures were already underway, with a previous €34 billion ($38 billion) gap in the 2027 budget now closed. The final details of the 2027 budget will be locked in by the Bundestag lower house of parliament on Thursday.
该委员会的建议包括削减总体补贴，以及逆转一项现行法律，该法律目前允许雇员在向社会保障账户缴费45年后按全额养老金退休。
The council’s recommendations include cutting overall subsidies, as well as reversing a law that currently allows employees to retire on a full pension after 45 years of paying into social security accounts.