罗马尼亚央行大概率将维持利率不变，因为能源价格上涨推高通胀，并推迟了任何潜在货币政策宽松的考量。
Romania will probably keep interest rates on hold as higher energy prices boost inflation and delay any consideration of potential monetary-policy easing.
据彭博调查的所有经济学家预测，罗马尼亚国家银行将于周四将基准利率维持在 6.5%，保持欧盟最高的借贷成本。自 2024 年以来，决策者一直维持利率不变，期间该国经历了反复的政府动荡、经济衰退和货币贬值。
The National Bank of Romania will leave the benchmark rate at 6.5% on Thursday, according to all economists in a Bloomberg survey, preserving the highest borrowing costs in the European Union. Policymakers have stayed pat since 2024 as the country has gone through recurring government turmoil, an economic recession and currency depreciation.
这个黑海国家上个月走出政治危机，在一系列组阁失败后批准成立了一个全权行使职能的政府。总理卢卡·尼库莱斯库的关键任务之一是起草明年预算，并制定可信的进一步削减赤字计划，以避免信用评级被降为垃圾级。
The Black Sea nation emerged from a political crisis last month, approving a fully functioning government after a series of failed attempts. One of the key tasks for Prime Minister Luca Niculescu is drafting a budget for next year with a credible plan for further deficit reduction in order to avoid a rating downgrade to junk.
虽然通胀在 2026 年年中左右开始从 10% 以上回落，得益于去年增税影响消退，但近期因能源成本上升，物价涨幅再次加快。10 月通胀数据将于周四公布，距离利率决议宣布仅几小时。
While inflation began slowing from above 10% around the middle of 2026 due to the fading impact of last year’s tax hikes, price growth has recently accelerated again on higher energy costs. October inflation data are due on Thursday, just hours before the rate decision announcement.
布加勒斯特德意志首要集团银行经济学家奇普里安·达斯卡卢表示，央行预计将强调近期通胀预测的上调。结合主要经济体的收紧倾向，这可能导致央行行长穆古尔·伊萨雷斯库释放出比 8 月讲话更“不偏鸽派”的信号。
The central bank is expected to highlight an upward revision in the near-term inflation forecast, said Ciprian Dascalu, an economist at Erste Group Bank AG’s unit in Bucharest. Combined with a tightening bias in major economies, it may lead to a “less dovish” message from Governor Mugur Isarescu compared with his comments from August.
达斯卡卢说：“任何政策宽松很可能取决于两个关键条件：罗马尼亚持续的财政整顿和欧元区货币紧缩周期的结束。”他预计利率至少维持不变至 5 月。
“Any policy easing will likely depend on two key conditions: continued fiscal consolidation in Romania and the end of the monetary tightening cycle in the euro area,” Dascalu said, expecting no change in rates at least until May.
央行副行长科斯明·马里内斯库上个月表示，由于能源价格带来的持续通胀压力，央行可能还将维持利率不变几个季度。
Deputy Central Bank Governor Cosmin Marinescu said last month that the bank will probably hold rates unchanged for a few more quarters because of persistent inflationary pressure from energy prices.
总统尼库肖尔·丹在化解政治危机的谈判中发挥了关键作用，本周强调了遏制欧盟最大预算赤字之一的重要性。他说，任何财政倒退都将进一步推高借贷成本并损害经济。
President Nicusor Dan, who played a key role in talks leading to the resolution of the political crisis, this week stressed the importance of curbing one of the biggest budget deficits in the EU. He said that any fiscal backsliding would further increase borrowing costs and hurt the economy.