民主党人在中期选举后欣喜若狂。这个在过去两年里毫无方向、屡战屡败的政党，似乎凭借夺得众参两院多数席位，轰轰烈烈地重回政治舞台中央。建制派民主党人如查克·舒默等人曾被视为政治生涯已尽，如今却重焕生机，甚至连传统上稳操胜券的共和党席位，也面临着愤怒选民的反扑。
Democrats have been deliriously giddy since the midterm elections. Their party, rudderless and defeated for two years, appeared to come roaring back into relevance with a House and Senate majority. The once-defunct political careers of establishment Democrats like Chuck Schumer roared back to life, as even traditionally safe Republican seats faced the wrath of a disgruntled electorate.
但就在民主党人在全国各地的竞选办公室庆祝自家候选人获胜之际，数十场保守派的胜利却在民主党声称已稳操胜券的“蓝州”里悄然发生，鲜为人知。
But as Democrats celebrated their candidates’ wins in campaign offices across the country, dozens of conservative victories went largely unnoticed in the very same states Democrats claimed were now solidly blue.
民主党的胜利是对共和党违背承诺的反弹，而非授权其推行大规模自由派政策纲领。
The Democrats’ victories were a backlash against broken Republican promises. They were not a mandate to usher in a vast liberal policy platform.
要理解这一论点，必须透过左翼选举之夜狂欢派对的喧嚣，将目光投向选票更下方的位置。全美各地选民通过投票倡议，将保守派政策优先事项写入法律，而自由派团体为此投入数百万美元进行对抗却未能阻止。更令人惊讶的是，这些历史上偏向保守的倡议，竟在选举之夜翻蓝的州份中取得了成功。仅举几例：选举之夜，科罗拉多州选出了一位民主党参议员、一位民主党州长，并有望使该州全部八个国会众议员席位中仅剩一位共和党人。人们本以为这意味着任何保守派投票倡议都将惨败收场。但事实并非如此。
To understand this argument, you must look past the boisterous celebrations from the left’s election night parties and look a little further down the ballot. Across the country, voters codified conservative policy priorities through ballot initiatives that liberal groups spent millions of dollars to fight against. And even more surprisingly, those historically conservative initiatives found success in states that flipped blue on election night. Let’s look at just a handful: On election night, Colorado elected a Democratic senator, a Democratic governor, and is on track to have only one Republican out of eight seats in the state’s entire congressional delegation. You would think that means any conservative ballot initiative would have gone down in flames. But that’s not what happened.
科罗拉多州选民对左翼一些最根深蒂固的政策主张予以了惊人的驳斥。旨在禁止男性参加女子体育比赛的“134号提案”果断通过。禁止对18岁以下未成年人实施性别转换手术的“135号提案”也获得通过。同一现象也发生在其他所谓的“蓝州”。
Colorado voters delivered a stunning rebuke to some of the left’s most entrenched policy platforms. Proposition 134, written to keep men out of women’s sports, passed decisively. Proposition 135, banning gender transition surgeries on children under 18, passed as well. The same phenomenon happened in other so-called blue states.
北卡罗来纳州通过了一项投票倡议，要求邮寄选票实施选民身份证验证，支持率与该州选出一位民主党参议员的得票率几乎相同。即使是该州倾向左派的全州性媒体也在呼吁民主党人对中期选举的庆祝“踩刹车”，指出该州大量无党派选民可能在短短几个月内给民主党带来真正的麻烦。
North Carolina passed a ballot initiative to require voter ID on mail-in ballots by almost the same percentage with which it elected a Democrat senator. Even left-leaning statewide outlets in the Tarheel state are calling on Democrats to pump the brakes on their midterm celebrations, pointing out the large number of unaffiliated voters in the state could cause true problems for Democrats in just a few short months.
亚利桑那州民主党人在州立法机构和州长选举中大获全胜，但未能阻止一项由共和党主导的投票倡议通过，该倡议将贩毒集团指定为恐怖组织。尽管亚利桑那州立法机构中的民主党人激烈反对，该倡议周二仍以超过13个百分点的优势通过。自由派大本营华盛顿州在选出民主党人的同时，投票支持学校体育项目实施生理性别要求。
Arizona Democrats swept in the state’s legislative and gubernatorial elections, but failed to stop a Republican-led ballot initiative designating cartels as terrorist organizations. Despite fierce opposition from Democrats in the Arizona legislature, it passed Tuesday by over 13 points. The liberal bastion of Washington state voted in favor of biological sex requirements for school sports while electing Democrats.
内华达州在选出民主党州长和国会议员的同时，通过了选民身份证要求。威斯康星州在同一张选票上选出了民主党州长，却大比数否决了激进的左翼DEI（多元、公平与包容）政策。简而言之，民主党人可能需要收起派对帽。
Nevada passed voter ID requirements while electing a Democratic Governor and members of Congress. Wisconsin elected a Democratic governor on the same ballot where they soundly rejected far-left progressive DEI policies. In short, Democrats might need to pack away the party hats.
中期选举下票竞选的结果给民主党带来了一个难题：当该党多年来倡导的意识形态立场被其自身选民如此坚决地拒绝时，他们要如何成功执政？是继续推行极不得人心的政策、无视选民授意，还是进化适应民意？
The midterm down ballot election results present Democrats with a conundrum: How are they to successfully govern when the ideological positions their party has championed for years were so firmly rebuked by their own constituencies? Do they press forward with wildly unpopular policies and ignore the mandate from voters, or do they evolve and adapt to the will of the people?
随着民主党准备于1月接管众议院和参议院多数党地位，他们面临的另一个障碍是：推动他们在中期选举中获胜的选民中，很大一部分由独立选民和摇摆选民组成。这一联盟与现代民主党的基本盘背道而驰。
There is yet another hurdle Democrats face as they prepare to assume House and Senate majorities in January: a large portion of the midterm electorate that propelled them to victory was comprised of independents and swing voters. That coalition is at odds with the base of the modern Democratic Party.
过去三年里，民主党的基本盘主要受到民主社会主义候选人和政策主张的激励。现在，三分之一的民主党人自认为是民主社会主义者。民主党要如何才能赢得其多元化中期选举选民群体——即不认同社会主义政策的独立选民和摇摆选民——的长期青睐？
For the last three years, the Democrats’ base has been largely energized by democrat socialist candidates and policy proposals. One in three Democrats now identify as Democrat socialists themselves. How are Democrats going to find long-term favor with their diverse midterm electorate of independents and swing voters who do not identify with socialist policies?
如果党内领导层中较为温和的民主党人试图维护独立选民和摇摆选民的联盟，就会激怒党内进步派。如果温和派试图安抚进步派，就会失去独立选民和摇摆选民。这是一个两败俱伤的局面。
If the more moderate Democrats in party leadership try and maintain the coalition of independents and swing voters, they will upset their party’s progressives. If the moderates try and appease the progressives, they will lose the independents and swing voters. It’s a lose-lose situation.
最终，我认为我们将在未来两年目睹民主党以壮观的方式自我毁灭，因为他们无法维持中期选举联盟。
Ultimately, I believe we will watch the Democrats self-destruct in spectacular fashion over the next two years as they fail to maintain their midterm coalition.
温和派将再次向党内极左进步派妥协。这多年来一直是他们的做法。“中间派”民主党人对本党社会主义的兴起，抵抗力不堪一击，如同飓风中的纱门。正如我在最近接受《福克纳聚焦》节目采访时指出的，建制派民主党人或许愿意让民主社会主义者进入他们的“大帐篷政党”，但民主社会主义者无意让中间派继续留在帐篷里。
Moderates will cave — again — to the far-left progressives in their party. It’s what they’ve been doing for years. "Centrist" Democrats have put up all the resistance of a screen door in a hurricane to the rise of socialism in their party. As I noted in a recent appearance on The Faulkner Focus, establishment Democrats may have been willing to allow the democrat socialists into their "big tent party", but the democrat socialists had no intention of allowing the centrists to remain with them in that tent.
未来两年，中间派和极左进步派将无法相处融洽。他们不会推进实质性立法；他们将专注于调查和弹劾。
For the next two years, centrists and far-left progressives will fail to play nicely with one another. They will not advance substantive legislation; they will be fixated on investigations and impeachments.
民主党将成为自己的最大敌人。当他们试图再次将不受欢迎的议程强加给已经在投票箱前予以驳斥的选民时，他们对自己毫无益处。共和党必须抓住机会，重新赢回这一关键的独立选民联盟，正是这一联盟推动唐纳德·特朗普在2024年赢得胜利。
Democrats will be their own worst enemy. They will do themselves no favors as they try and force their unpopular agenda, once again, on an electorate who already rebuked it at the ballot box. Republicans must seize the opportunity to recapture this crucial coalition of independents that propelled Donald Trump to victory in 2024.
选民因共和党违背承诺而愤怒，纷纷在全国范围内投票支持民主党人。但正是那些关注度较低的下层选票竞争中的细微信号，将帮助我们规划2028年胜选之路。
Voters roared against the GOP’s broken promises by electing Democrats across the country. But it’s the down ballot whispers that will help us chart the road to victory in 2028.