石油市场正步入一个不同寻常的时期，因为伊朗冲突仍处于危险的僵局之中：供应紧张正在缓解，但价格可能顽固地维持高位。
Oil markets are heading into an unusual period as the Iran conflict remains in dangerous limbo: The supply crunch is easing, but prices could stay stubbornly high.
为何重要：尽管汽油价格近期有所下跌，但即使中东出口断断续续地恢复，也不要指望很快回到战前水平。
Why it matters: While gasoline prices have dropped lately, don't expect pre-war levels anytime soon even as Middle East exports fitfully recover.
- 从该地区运出石油成本高昂，这最终会传导给消费者。
• Getting oil out of the region is expensive, which filters down to consumers.
- 新袭击的威胁也能让油价居高不下，因为价格中嵌入了风险溢价。
• The threat of new attacks can keep oil costs higher, too, thanks to the risk premium embedded in prices.
大局：交易员正在关注潜在外交的进展——以及长期僵局的可能性。
The big picture: Traders are watching the state of potential diplomacy — and the possibility of a prolonged stalemate.
- 昨日油价跳涨，此前特朗普总统在其 Truth Social 平台上表示：“我们不需要与伊朗达成协议。那些日子早已一去不复返了。”
• Oil prices jumped yesterday after President Trump said on his Truth Social that "we don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed."
新闻驱动因素：桶量追踪公司和分析师称，原油出口水平波动不定，但最近曾有时恢复到战前水平。
Driving the news: Crude oil export levels bounce around, but have recently returned to pre-war levels at times, barrel-tracking firms and analysts say.
- 政治风险情报公司 Verisk Maplecroft 称，航运威胁将“持续到 2027 年”，且袭击事件上个月激增。
• Yet shipping threats will "persist in 2027," and attacks spiked last month, per political risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.
- 关于霍尔木兹海峡航行的新协议顶多只是拼图的一块——如果它真的达成的话。
• A new agreement on navigating the Strait of Hormuz would just be a piece of the puzzle — if it ever happens. "The threat of a renewed wave
“只要伊朗核与导弹项目的根本对抗仍未解决，航运袭击新一波浪潮的威胁就会保持高位，” 该公司的分析指出。
of shipping attacks will remain high as long as the underlying confrontation over Iran's nuclear and missile programmes remains unresolved," the firm's analysis states. Catch up quick:
快速回顾：追踪有多少供应正在回归是一个移动的目标，中东以外国家（包括美国）的增产也很重要。
Tracking how much supply is returning is a moving target, and higher production from countries outside the Middle East — including the U.S. — matters too.
- 国际能源署今天上午表示，石油市场“显示出初步的再平衡迹象，全球石油供应自伊朗战争爆发以来首次超过需求”。
• The oil market is "showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran," the International Energy Agency said this morning.
- 其月度分析称，上个月波斯湾地区原油出口升至战前水平的 82%，但成品油出口的恢复较弱。
• Crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf region rose to 82% of pre-war levels last month, though recovery of refined product shipments is weaker, its monthly analysis states.
随着供应增加由于冲突导致石油需求下降，国际能源署预测全球市场本季度将重回供过于求。
With supply rising and oil demand lowered by the conflict, IEA predicts the global market will return to a surplus this quarter.
但也有相反因素：保险和航运成本居高不下，这给油价带来上行压力。
Yes, but: Insurance and shipping costs are elevated, and that puts upward pressure on prices.
- “伊朗和胡塞武装都已表明，它们能够利用一系列袭击手段严重限制该地区的石油流动。这是必须计入价格的因素，”威瑞咨询高级分析师托比约恩·索尔特韦特通过
• "Both Iran and the Houthis have demonstrated that they can severely restrict oil flows from the region using a range of attacks and tactics. This is something that will have to be priced in," Torbjorn Soltvedt, a senior Verisk analyst, tells me via
- 也不保证避开霍尔木兹海峡的油轮运输增加和管道运输增量不会因新的袭击而受阻。
• And there's no guarantee that higher tanker transit and increased shipments through pipelines that avoid the Strait of Hormuz won't be curtailed by fresh attacks.
深度观察：高盛估计，油轮市场“适应中东航运风险”占运输石油平均成本同比每桶上涨20美元的大部分。
Zoom in: Goldman Sachs estimates that the tanker market's "adaptation to Mideast shipping risks" accounts for most of the $20-per-barrel year-over-year increase in average costs for shipping oil.
- 这些运费反映了船舶可用性、保险、燃料成本、物流、航行距离等因素。
• These freight rates reflect vessel availability, insurance, fuel cost, logistics, travel distances and more.
我们在关注：近期该地区还能继续输出多少石油尚不清楚，因为零星袭击持续发生。
What we're watching: It's unclear how much more oil can keep leaving the region in the near term, as intermittent attacks keep happening.
- “目前的复苏可能已接近现有物流体系所能维持的极限，”汇丰的金·富斯特在近期一份报告中表示。
• "The current recovery may be close to the limit of what the existing logistics system can sustain," HSBC's Kim Fustier said in a recent note.
核心观点：“我们不会把[石油]出口等同于常态，”富斯特写道。
The bottom line: "We would not equate [oil] exports with normality," Fustier writes.
- 她援引了仍受限的大量油井产量、较低的成品油出货量，以及“维持出口的成本”。
• She cited substantial volumes of well production that remain curtailed, lower refined product shipments, and "and the cost of sustaining exports."