Roshni Majumdar 2026年11月13日 专家警告不要修订欧洲安全框架，因为他们表示，这将意味着满足莫斯科长期以来的愿望，即在欧洲大陆重新谈判战后安全安排。
Roshni Majumdar November 13, 2026 Experts warn against revising Europe's security framework because they say it would mean granting Moscow its longstanding wish of renegotiating postwar security on the continent.
偏好在Google上关注DW 欧洲领导人和外交官在都柏林会面，重申对乌克兰的支持，此前本周美国斡旋的和平谈判势头增强。
Prefer DW on Google European leaders and diplomats met in Dublin to reaffirm their support for Ukraine as US-mediated peace talks gained momentum this week.
欧洲领导人迄今为止已就美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提出的许多要求达成妥协，但他们惊讶地听到特朗普说，他与俄罗斯官员讨论了欧洲的安全框架。
European leaders have so far found compromises in response to many of US President Donald Trump's demands But they were surprised to hear Trump say that he raised Europe's security framework with Russian officials.
“将是一项重大协议，涉及的不仅仅是乌克兰，”特朗普上周在白宫会见俄罗斯总统特使基里尔·德米特里耶夫后表示。
"It's going to be a big agreement and it's going to involve more than Ukraine," Trump said after meeting Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev at the White House last week.
他说，该协议可能涉及整个欧洲。但他所说的“整个欧洲”具体指什么尚不清楚。
He said that deal might include all of Europe. But what he meant by "all of Europe" was not clear.
美国特使贾里德·库什纳也写道，欧洲和俄罗斯在30多年来一直难以建立可持续的安全框架。
US envoy Jared Kushner also wrote that Europe and Russia had struggled to establish a sustainable security framework for more than 30 years.
库什纳表示，他在飞往阿布扎比与俄罗斯和乌克兰代表会面之前，正在研究一个“更广泛”的欧洲架构。
Kushner said he was looking at a "broader" European architecture before he flew to meet with Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Abu Dhabi.
欧洲外交官立即对华盛顿在乌克兰达成和平协议的做法提出反对，因为他们担心和平解决方案可能恢复俄罗斯的势力范围并削弱北约。“我们已经有欧洲安全架构。北约和欧盟都有各自的角色。我们必须确保乌克兰融入这一架构，”欧盟外交政策负责人卡娅·卡拉斯表示。
European diplomats immediately pushed back on Washington's approach to secure a peace deal in Ukraine because they feared that a peace settlement could restore Russia's sphere of influence and undermine NATO "We already have European security architecture in place. NATO and the European Union both have their respective roles. We must make sure Ukraine is integrated into this architecture," said Kaja Kallas, the European Union's foreign policy chief.
关于修订欧洲战后安全框架的问题，俄罗斯本周早些时候在阿布扎比的会谈中明确表示，他们渴望在讨论战争具体细节之前，先讨论更广泛的欧洲安全框架。
The issue with revising Europe's postwar security framework Russia made clear during talks in Abu Dhabi earlier this week that they were keen to discuss a broader European security framework before tackling the specifics of the war.
“关于欧洲安全架构的说法，当然是俄方的论调，不仅如此，在某种程度上，也是俄罗斯为按照其意愿定义这场战争而开展的媒体宣传工作的一部分，”冷战史学家迈克尔·基米奇说。
"Phrases about the European security architecture are certainly Russian talking points and not only talking points but, to a degree, part of a media propaganda effort that Russia makes to frame the war as it wishes to frame the war," said Michael Kimmage, a historian of the Cold War.
包括弗拉基米尔·普京在内的俄罗斯领导人长期声称，美国和北约反复违背了20世纪90年代初期不将北约扩大到前苏联集团的承诺。
Russian leaders, including Vladimir Putin, have long alleged that the US and NATO repeatedly violated pledges they made in the early 1990s not to expand the alliance into the former Soviet bloc.
他们认为，北约在此期间的扩张使他们处于一种屈辱的境地，几乎无能为力。
They have seen NATO's enlargement during this period as having put them in a humiliating position in which they could do very little.
与此同时，在20世纪90年代，欧洲一体化进程诞生了欧盟、确保成员国之间货物和人员自由流动的单一市场、实现免护照边境通行的申根协定，以及欧元。其核心理念是将和平延伸至整个大陆。
At the same time, in the 1990s, the European project saw the birth of the European Union, the single market that ensured the free movement of goods and people across member states, the Schengen agreement for border-free travel, and the euro. The core idea was to extend peace across the continent.
“欧洲可以有很多含义，但欧洲一体化进程并非为战争而设计，它是为和平而设计的，”基米奇说。在此期间，甚至有过俄罗斯成为北约成员的建议。
"Europe can mean so many things, but the European project was not designed for war. It was designed for peace," said Kimmage. During this period, there were even suggestions of Russia becoming a NATO member.
但这种相对稳定的时期在俄罗斯2008年入侵格鲁吉亚、2014年吞并克里米亚以及2022年对乌克兰发动全面入侵之后发生了改变。
But that relative period of stability changed after Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, annexed Crimea in 2014 and launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "Russia wants to redraw all of this by force.
“俄罗斯想要用武力重新划定这一切。我认为，考虑到欧洲内部在什么可接受、什么不可接受方面存在的多样性和差异，这在欧洲根本无法接受。我认为，用武力大规模重划边界，根本不是欧洲一体化进程的本意，”基米奇说。
And I think that that's fundamentally unacceptable to Europe with all the diversity and variations that you get within the European landscape on what's acceptable and not acceptable. I think the large-scale redrawing of borders by force is just not the European project," said Kimmage.
“所以，只要用武力重划边界是俄罗斯外交政策的命脉，我认为这一点很容易论证，那么俄罗斯和欧洲就陷入了僵局，”他说。乌克兰的安全将何去何从？
"So to the extent that the redrawing of borders by force is the lifeblood of Russian foreign policy, and I think that's a pretty easy case to make, Russia and Europe are at an impasse," he said. What was to happen to Ukraine's security?
特朗普政府很快转而确保“现有的欧洲安全机构”保持完好，库什纳周四晚些时候表示，下一轮谈判将包括“我们的欧洲伙伴”。库什纳与史蒂夫·维特科夫在阿布扎比会谈后飞往莫斯科与普京会谈，随后又飞往爱尔兰都柏林，会见乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基。库什纳周四早些时候曾暗示乌克兰战后有“非常令人难以置信”的计划，称如果没有欧洲人参与，这一计划无法达成。
The Trump administration very quickly turned to making sure that "existing European security institutions" would be intact, with Jared Kushner having said late Thursday that the next round of negotiations would include "our European partners." Kushner, along with Steve Witkoff, flew to Moscow to talk to Putin after talks in Abu Dhabi. Then they flew to Dublin, Ireland, to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Kushner had earlier Thursday signaled some "really incredible" postwar plans for Ukraine, saying that it could not be concluded without Europeans at the table.
“我们不应允许俄罗斯强加一种结果，导致乌克兰未来的军队在某种程度上中立化或大幅削减，因为这将使乌克兰在未来极易受到来自俄罗斯的侵略和压力，”芬兰国际事务研究所所长希斯基·豪卡拉说。
"We should not allow a diktat from Russia that would result in some kind of neutralization or significant reduction in the military forces of Ukraine going forward, because that would make Ukraine very, very vulnerable to future aggression and pressure coming from Russia," said Hiski Haukkala, the director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
这意味着乌克兰也将完全依赖美国或欧洲能够且愿意提供的安全保障。
That would mean that Ukraine would also be completely dependent on the security guarantees that the US or Europeans are able and willing to provide.
“我们支持乌克兰，因为我们支持国际法以及在欧洲安全架构方面的体面与国际安全的基本规范。我们正是从这个立场出发行事，”他说。欧盟多次指出俄罗斯违反的一些基本条约，包括：《联合国宪章》 1975年《赫尔辛基最终文件》，该文件确立了欧洲安全的十项核心原则，包括不使用武力或威胁侵犯领土完整。
"We are supporting Ukraine because we are supporting international law and the basic norms of decency and international security when it comes to European security architecture. And this is the vantage point from which we are operating," he said. European Union has repeatedly pointed to some of the basic treaties that Russia broke, including: The UN Charter The Helsinki Act of 1975, which established the ten core principles of European security, including the non-use of force or threat against territorial integrity.
《巴黎新欧洲宪章》，该宪章建立在赫尔辛基承诺的基础上 欧洲安全与合作组织（OSCE），该组织是西方与俄罗斯交往的少数多边安全论坛之一。
The Charter of Paris for a New Europe that built on Helsinki commitments The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which was one of the few multilateral security forums where the West and Russia engaged.
1994年的《布达佩斯备忘录》中，俄罗斯、美国和英国向乌克兰及其他国家提供安全保障，以换取它们放弃核武器。
The Budapest Memorandum of 1994 in which Russia, the US and the UK provided security assurances to Ukraine and others in exchange for them giving up their nuclear weapons.
“俄罗斯背离了这些原则，并在此过程中将它们砸得粉碎。而且他们对恢复以往的安全架构秩序不感兴趣。他们想要取而代之的是另一种东西。只要这一点不被摆上桌面，俄罗斯形式的谈判就是发动战争。战争是一种讨价还价的方式，”豪卡拉说。
"Russia walked away from these principles and smashed them to pieces in the process. And they are not interested in reinstating the previous security architecture order. They want something different in its stead.
“他们正在发出战略意图的信号，要改变欧洲安全的构成，要制服乌克兰，要改变欧洲安全的本质，”他补充说。
And as long as this is not on the table, the Russian form of negotiation is to wage war. War is a form of bargaining," Haukkala said.
美国特使贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·维特科夫在莫斯科会见弗拉基米尔·普京之后，会见了弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基。前进的道路是什么？
"And they are signaling strategic intent to change the makeup of European security, to subdue Ukraine and to change the very essence of European security," he added. US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy after having met Vladimir Putin in Moscow. What is the way forward?
乔治·W·布什政府时期负责欧洲事务的前助理国务卿丹尼尔·弗里德表示，俄罗斯非常擅长坚持自己的要求。
Daniel Fried, a former assistant secretary of state for European Affairs in the George W. Bush administration, said Russia is very good at sticking to its demands.
他说，俄罗斯人懂得如何谈判，而“眼下，他们并没有在谈判”，指的是阿布扎比的会谈。
He said Russians know how to negotiate and "right now, they are not negotiating," referring to talks in Abu Dhabi.
一些专家表示，目前不可能与俄罗斯建立新的安全架构，因为当下没有信任，也没有与俄罗斯保持一致立场的共同愿景。
Some experts said there was no possibility of having a new security architecture with the Russians at this point because there was no trust or common vision to align with Russia at the moment.
其他人，如后苏联政治专家巴拉兹·亚拉比克则表示，无论欧洲人喜欢与否，俄罗斯都是欧洲安全架构的一部分。
Others like Balazs Jarabik, an expert on post-Soviet politics, said that Russia was part of the European security architecture whether Europeans liked it or not.
“问题是，它是否会被列为我们的敌人。显然，俄罗斯不会成为伙伴，对吧？我们必须找到一种运作方式，以降低横向升级的风险，以及可能爆发更大欧洲战争的风险，甚至比现在更大的战争。”周五，众多欧洲领导人也拒绝了俄罗斯关于讨论欧洲安全框架的要求。德国政府一名发言人表示，柏林计划主持“自愿联盟”会议，为乌克兰国防筹集资金，并就未来和谈立场达成统一。德国能让欧洲为乌克兰多付出吗？
"And the question is whether it's included as our enemy. Obviously, Russia is not going to be a partner, right? We have to find a modus operandi to reduce the risk of a horizontal escalation and potentially a bigger European war, even a bigger one than what we have now." A host of European leaders on Friday rejected the Russian demands to discuss Europe's security framework as well, with a spokesperson for the German government saying that Berlin was looking to host a meeting of the "Coalition of the Willing" to secure funding for Ukraine's defense and reach a unified position regarding future peace talks Can Germany make Europe pay more for Ukraine?