尽管国际投资者需求强劲，新兴市场政府债券的新发行在下半年却大幅萎缩，造成供给短缺，在预计明年初发行将反弹之前支撑了债券价格。
New sales of emerging-market government bonds have cratered in the second half of the year despite strong demand from international investors, creating a supply shortage that’s supporting prices before an expected rebound in issuance early next year.
据彭博汇编的数据，与去年同期相比，今年下半年以来发展中国家硬通货债务发行下降41%，至690亿美元。自9月初以来，主权债券发行放缓尤为陡峭，发行量减半。
By Selcuk Gokoluk Hard-currency debt sales in developing nations are down 41% at $69 billion in the second half so far compared with the same period a year ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The sovereign-bond slowdown has been particularly steep in since the start of September, with issuance plunging by half.
如果在今年最后几周发行未能回升，这将标志着自2022年以来，新兴市场硬通货债券年发行量首次下降。资金管理人士表示，这种枯竭是因为潜在卖方因伊朗战争导致油价波动，以及美国国债剧烈波动而选择观望。
If sales don’t pick up in the final weeks of the year, it will mark the first time since 2022 that annual hard-currency bond sales out of emerging markets have dropped. Money managers say the drought is a result of potential sellers waiting out volatility in oil prices due to the Iran war, as well as sharp swings in US Treasuries.
“两大驱动因素是美国利率上升和地缘政治风险，”两者都高度波动，伦敦Pictet Asset Management高级投资经理Reza Karim表示。“买方和发行方都在试图寻找‘合适的窗口期’，但从未真正出现。”基准10年期美国国债收益率从9月初的约4.8%攀升至10月初的5.4%左右，随后在11月回落至4.9%以下，经历了约60个基点的往返波动，这使得发行方更难锁定融资成本。
“The two major drivers are higher US rates and geopolitical risk,” both of which have been highly volatile, said Reza Karim, a senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management in London. “Both buyers and issuers were trying to look for the ‘right window,’ which never really came.”The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbed from about 4.8% at the start of September to around 5.4% in early October before retreating below 4.9% in November, a roughly 60-basis-point round trip that made it harder for issuers to lock in borrowing costs.
伦敦Promeritum Investment Management首席经济学家兼策略师Chris Celio表示，这种波动使得“承销团很难有信心进行簿记建档，确信交易最终会成功”。他表示，稀缺的供给支撑了新兴市场债券价格，因为债券基金将不得不积累现金，或将其部署到二级市场现有的新兴市场债务中。跑赢美债据彭博社汇编的数据显示，新兴市场债券今年给投资者带来0.5%的亏损，但表现优于美国国债的1.5%亏损和美国企业债的1.8%亏损。新兴市场债券去年上涨11%，实现连续三年上涨。
That kind of volatility has made it “very difficult for syndicates to do book-building with some confidence that the deal will ultimately be successful,” said Chris Celio, chief economist and strategist at Promeritum Investment Management in London. The scarce supply is supportive of EM bond prices because bond funds will either have to accumulate cash or deploy it into existing EM debt on the secondary market, he said. Beating Treasuries While emerging-market bonds have handed investors a loss of 0.5% this year, they’ve outperformed the 1.5% loss for US Treasuries and 1.8% loss for US corporate debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Emerging-market bonds gained 11% last year, capping a third year of advances.
“我们认为新兴市场债券将继续跑赢，”伦敦TT国际资产管理公司新兴市场债券主管让-查尔斯·桑博尔说，他特指相对于美国高收益债的跑赢。“技术面更强劲，供应风险更低，基本面持续改善。”据威廉·布莱尔BV公司阿姆斯特丹投资组合经理伊维特·巴布说，最近成交的少量销售证明投资者购买意愿强烈。
“We think that EM bonds will continue to outperform,” said Jean-Charles Sambor, head of emerging-market debt at TT International Asset Management in London, referring specifically to outperformance versus US high-yield debt. “Technicals are stronger, supply risk is lower and fundamentals continue to improve.”The small number of sales that have gone through recently are proof that investors are keen to buy, according to Yvette Babb, a portfolio manager at William Blair BV in Amsterdam.
她引用秘鲁和生态石油的发行，分别吸引了约为发行量五倍和三倍的需求。印尼的一笔苏古克债券发行超额认购三倍，使收益率较初始指引收紧了25至30个基点。罗马尼亚45亿欧元的交易获得超过76亿欧元（84亿美元）的订单。
She cited offers from Peru and Ecopetrol that attracted demand of around five times and three times the amount offered, respectively. A sukuk sale from Indonesia was three times oversubscribed, allowing the yield to tighten by 25-30 basis points compared with initial guidance. Romania’s €4.5 billion transaction got orders of more than €7.6 billion ($8.4 billion).
“新兴市场发行放缓主要是供给面的故事，而非投资者需求减弱的证据，”巴布说。“由此产生的新债券稀缺性有利于市场技术面，特别是在投资者仍有资金可投放的情况下。”“巨额账簿”伦敦联合瑞银私人银行（Union Bancaire Privee）首席投资官兼新兴市场债券负责人托马斯·克里斯蒂安森（Thomas Christiansen）表示，秘鲁的“巨额账簿”显示，“投资者显然有现金”。“任何利率反弹都可能吸引更多发行人出现。”
“The slowdown in EM issuance is primarily a supply-side story rather than evidence of weakening investor demand,” Babb said. “The resulting scarcity of new paper is supportive for market technicals, particularly where investors still have cash to deploy.”‘Huge Book’The “huge book” for Peru showed that “investors clearly have cash,” according to Thomas Christiansen, chief investment officer and head of EM debt at Union Bancaire Privee in London. “Any rally in rates would likely be met with more issuers coming out of the woodwork.”
即使在新兴市场信贷的有利背景下，该资产类别仍然“结构性持有不足”，宏利投资管理（Manulife Investment Management）新兴市场债券组合经理埃莉娜·西奥多拉科普卢（Elina Theodorakopoulou）表示。“该资产类别已显著成熟；然而，全球配置尚未完全跟上更强大的机构、更深层的流动性市场和稳健的信贷基本面。”随着今年早些时候地缘政治风险下降，债券供应可能在2027年初“大规模”回归，皮克特（Pictet）的卡里姆（Karim）表示。
Even with a supportive backdrop for EM credit, the asset class remains “structurally under-owned,” said Elina Theodorakopoulou, a portfolio manager for EM debt at Manulife Investment Management. “The asset class has matured significantly; global allocations, though, have not yet fully caught up with stronger institutions, deeper liquid markets and sound credit fundamentals.”With a decline in geopolitical risk since earlier this year, bond supply could come back “massively” at the start of 2027, Pictet’s Karim said.
与此同时，他说，新兴市场发行人的信贷质量“处于有史以来最好的水平之一”，因此当发行回归时，可以预期会有需求。
Meanwhile, the credit quality of emerging-market issuers is “among the best it has ever been,” so demand can be expected when the issuance does return, he said.
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