共和党在中期选举中的惨败撕裂了唐纳德·特朗普总统的联盟。数月来，民调显示特朗普2024年选民在移民、伊朗战争以及总统影响力方面出现裂痕。现在，POLITICO 民调在选举后仅数天进行的新结果揭示了自称 MAGA 基础的特朗普支持者与帮助其重返白宫的非 MAGA 选民之间的深刻鸿沟。
The Republican Party’s midterm wipeout has torn apart President Donald Trump’s coalition. For months, polling has shown cracks among Trump’s 2024 voters over immigration, the Iran war and the president’s influence. Now, new results from The POLITICO Poll, conducted just days after the election, reveal a deep chasm between Trump’s self-identified MAGA base and the non-MAGA voters who helped fuel his return to the White House.
根据 PF Global 进行的调查，这两个阵营对共和党历史性中期选举失利的解释以及党派的下一步走向持截然不同的看法。MAGA 特朗普忠诚者更倾向于认为总统对失利不负责任——如果他在票箱上，结果会更好——并且认为党应当更靠近特朗普。
The two camps hold sharply different interpretations of the GOP’s historic midterm defeat and what comes next for their party, according to the survey conducted by PF Global. MAGA Trump loyalists were more likely to say the president is not to blame for the losses — that things would have gone better if he was on the ballot — and that the party should now move closer to Trump.
非 MAGA 特朗普选民则强烈反对，表示他们准备摆脱他及其不受欢迎的议程。约五分之一的人称他们本次投票给了民主党候选人。
Non-MAGA Trump voters starkly disagreed, saying they are ready to move away from him and his unpopular agenda. About one in five said they voted for Democratic candidates this cycle.
这条分界线是一个新的警示信号，表明共和党在中期灾难后急于重新拼凑获胜联盟时，可能难以留住在2024年推动特朗普胜选的选民。
The fault line is a fresh warning sign that Republicans, desperate to stitch back together a winning coalition after their midterm calamity, may struggle to keep the voters that powered Trump’s victory in 2024 in the fold.
它也让人质疑党应当对过去十年围绕的领袖——以及运动——保持多大程度的忠诚。总体而言，略超过半数的特朗普选民认为总统能够从选举失利中卷土重来。
And it calls into question just how loyal the party should be to a leader — and movement — it has spent the last decade united around. Overall, just over half of all Trump voters said the president will be able to make a comeback from the election losses.
“随着共和党在未来两年里弄清自身身份和立场，这些分歧只会进一步暴露，”共和党策略师道格·海伊说。以下四张图表展示了中期选举如何在特朗普的选民内部造成分裂。
“As the [GOP] spends the next two years figuring out who it is and what it stands for, these divisions will only be further exposed,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye. Here are four charts that show just how much the midterms have divided Trump’s own voters.
大多数非MAGA的特朗普选民将共和党在众议院和参议院的失利归咎于特朗普上任以来的行为，而认为是竞选本身导致失利的比例要少得多。59%的多数还表示，总统是中期选举的失败者，这对帮助他重返白宫的选民群体来说是一次尖锐的指责。但MAGA特朗普选民对谁应为他们的失利负责则意见分歧。
A majority of non-MAGA Trump voters blamed Republicans' loss of the House and the Senate on Trump’s actions since taking office, with far fewer saying the campaigns themselves were responsible. A 59% majority also said the president is a loser of the midterms, a striking rebuke from a group of voters who helped his return to the White House. But MAGA Trump voters are torn over who they blame for their losses.
这种分歧映射出共和党高层内部的争论。选举结果公布后不久，一些共和党人至少是出于淡淡的态度开始指责总统。另一些人则呼吁进行“清算”，但并未明确把责任归咎于特朗普，也未提出共和党的替代愿景。
The divide mirrors disagreements happening at the top levels of the Republican Party. In the immediate aftermath of the election, some Republicans, at least tepidly, began pointing fingers at the president. Others have called for a “reckoning” without explicitly laying the blame at Trump’s feet or articulating an alternative vision for the GOP.
“选举日发生的事无法粉饰。从东海岸到西海岸，在美国最红的地区，共和党人被羞辱了，”31位共和党全国委员会成员本周在致共和党议员的信中写道。
“There is no way to sugarcoat what happened on Election Day. From coast to coast, and in some of the reddest parts of the country, Republicans were humiliated,” 31 Republican National Committee members wrote in a letter to GOP lawmakers this week.
特朗普在中期选举前多次敦促选民“假装”自己在选票上，选举结束后他在Truth Social上坚持称：“我根本不在选票上。如果我在，我们本会大获全胜！”白宫发言人戴维斯·英格在声明中说：“特朗普总统永远不会停止为美国人民带来成果，他无疑将被铭记为美国历史上最成功、最有影响力的总统。”
Trump, who ahead of the midterms repeatedly urged voters to “pretend” he was on the ballot, insisted in a Truth Social post after the election that, “I JUST WASN’T ON THE BALLOT. IF I WERE, WE WOULD HAVE WON IN A LANDSLIDE!”“President Trump will never stop delivering results for the American people and he will undoubtedly go down as the most successful and consequential president in American history,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement.
在共和党领袖们努力寻找中期选举失利的复苏之策时，MAGA阵营尚未准备好摆脱特朗普：他们认为前进的道路是拥抱特朗普及其议程。
As Republican Party leaders grapple with how to rebound from the midterms, MAGA isn’t ready to move on from Trump: They said the path forward is embracing Trump and his agenda.
非MAGA的特朗普选民则持相反观点——近一半认为本轮选举中他们的共和党候选人本应在经济议题上与总统划清界限。
Non-MAGA Trump voters said the opposite — and nearly half of them think their Republican candidates should have broken with the president on the economy this cycle.
“非常清楚，2026年选举日对唐纳德·特朗普本人及其政策都是一次明确的否定，”一位在中期选举中工作的全国共和党操盘手说，他要求匿名以便坦率谈论当前形势。“如果‘让美国再次伟大’要在未来取得任何成功，就必须进行一次彻底的重新包装。”这为共和党领袖们描绘了一幅复杂的图景——他们必须设法争取特朗普极其忠诚的MAG A 基础选民，同时又不疏远帮助他在2024年获胜的那部分不那么坚定的选民。
“It is very clear that Election Day 2026 was an unequivocal rebuke of Donald Trump, both him personally and his policies,” said one national GOP operative who worked on midterm races, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape. “MAGA needs a serious rebrand if it is going to have any success in the future.”That presents a complicated picture for Republican leaders, who will have to find a way to appeal to Trump’s fiercely loyal MAGA base without alienating the less committed voters who helped deliver his 2024 victory.
在选举之夜，随着共和党失利规模逐渐明朗，POLITICO 询问了在中期选举中工作的共和党操盘手，是否意味着共和党该考虑为党制定新的愿景。
On Election Night, as the scale of Republican losses was becoming clear, POLITICO asked GOP operatives who worked on midterm races whether the defeat meant it was time for Republicans to consider a new vision for the party.
“一怎么可能不考虑？”一位人士回应道。这是“过去50年里党内遭受的最惨败”。非MAG A 的特朗普选民对特朗普能否在中期选举血腥惨败后卷土重来意见不一。然而，MAG A 对总统的能力却相当自信。
“How can it not be?” one person responded. It’s “the worst defeat a party has taken in 50 years.”Non-MAGA Trump voters are split over whether Trump can make a comeback after the midterms bloodbath. MAGA, however, is quite confident in the president’s abilities to do so.
总体而言，特朗普选民对共和党的乐观程度高于对总统本人的乐观程度。
And collectively, Trump voters are more optimistic about the Republican Party than the president.
特朗普议程中的一些关键方面在美国民众中不受欢迎，包括他推动的大规模驱逐、对关键贸易伙伴征收的关税以及在伊朗的战争。曾经支持这些政策的国会共和党人如今正在权衡是否能够与之保持距离，以重新赢得选民的信任。
Some key aspects of Trump’s agenda are unpopular with Americans, including his push for mass deportations, tariffs imposed on key trade partners and the war in Iran. The congressional Republicans who once supported many of those policies are now weighing whether they can distance themselves to regain voters’ trust.
在中期选举后接受《60分钟》采访时，特朗普承认其党派的失利至少部分归因于伊朗战争及其导致的高油价——他还提到，在某些情况下，选民“并不喜欢这些候选人”，并再次强调，他本人并未出现在选票上。
In an interview with “60 Minutes” after the midterms, Trump admitted his party’s losses may be attributed at least in part to the Iran war and the resulting high gas prices — though he also mentioned how, in some cases, voters “didn’t like the candidates” and asserted, again, that he wasn’t on the ballot.
“特朗普总统仍是我们党毫无争议的领袖，他削减了税收、降低了药品成本并确保了边境安全，”共和党全国委员会发言人娜塔莉·巴尔达萨雷在声明中说。“共和党人将继续利用他激励基层的能力，揭露民主党人灾难性的纪录，以在2028年夺回我们的多数席位。”
"President Trump remains the unequivocal leader of our party who's cut taxes, lowered drug costs and secured our border,” RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said in a statement. “Republicans will continue to harness his ability to energize our base and expose the Democrats' disastrous record to win back our majorities in 2028."
随着党内展望2028年，共和党人已经在权衡下一位总统提名人应在多大程度上承袭“MAGA”旗帜。
As the party looks ahead to 2028, Republicans are already weighing how much the party’s next presidential nominee should carry the MAGA mantle.
一些国会山的共和党人日益对马可·鲁比奥的总统竞选前景持开放态度，认为选民在特朗普之后可能在寻找新的方向，而副总统JD·范斯可能与总统的议程联系过于紧密。
Some Hill Republicans are increasingly warming to the prospect of a Marco Rubio presidential bid, arguing that voters may be looking for a new direction after Trump — and Vice President JD Vance may be too closely tied to the president’s agenda.
“MAGA”特朗普选民明确表示，他们更倾向于选择曾在政府任职的人——这再次显示了他们对总统的支持，以及在忠诚度如此之高的情况下，党内转向的困难。
MAGA Trump voters said decisively that they prefer someone who has worked in the administration — another sign of their support for the president, and of the difficulty of changing course as a party given that loyalty.
“我认为每个人都有调整的权利。你知道，从中学习，”共和党众议员、即将就任俄克拉荷马州参议员的凯文·赫恩最近对《政治》杂志说。当被问及他预计会参选的三位候选人中最喜欢的是范斯、鲁比奥还是德桑蒂斯时，他笑着回答：“所有人。”
“I think everybody reserves the right to adjust. You know, learn from this,” GOP Rep. and incoming Oklahoma Sen. Kevin Hern recently told POLITICO. Asked his favorite candidate of the three he expected to run: Vance, Rubio or DeSantis, he replied with a smile: “Everybody.”