
与内塔尼亚胡组建统一政府将是“耻辱且瘫痪的政府”,反对派领袖阿维格多尔·利伯曼说统一政府可能需要把本·格维尔和斯莫特里奇排除在外,冻结司法改革并调查10月7日事件,以色列评论员亚伦·德克尔说在以色列选举前两周,随着民调显示总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡阵营和犹太反对派阵营可能都无法获得组建政府所需的多数席位,组建统一政府的前景再次成为焦点,而反对派排除依赖阿拉伯议员打破僵局。
A unity government with Netanyahu would be a ‘disgrace and a paralyzed government,’ says opposition leader Avigdor Liberman Unity government may require sidelining Ben Gvir and Smotrich, freezing judicial overhaul and investigating Oct. 7 events, says Israeli commentator Yaron Dekel Two weeks ahead of Israel’s elections, the prospect of forming a unity government has returned to the forefront amid opinion polls indicating that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the Jewish opposition bloc may both fail to secure the majority required to form a government, while the opposition rules out relying on Arab lawmakers to break the deadlock.
如果两个阵营都未能在120个议席中获得61席,以色列可能面临两种选择:在数月内再次举行选举,或组建一个将内塔尼亚胡的利库德党与反对党结合的统一政府。
If neither bloc manages to secure 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel could face two options: holding another election within months or forming a unity government bringing together Netanyahu’s Likud party and opposition parties.
讨论中的方案排除了由国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本·格维尔领导的极右翼犹太力量党,并基本排除了由财政部长贝扎勒尔·斯莫特里奇领导的极右翼宗教犹太复国主义党,以及宗教哈雷迪党和阿拉伯党。赫尔佐格推动稳定以色列总统以撒·赫尔佐格强调他正努力避免再次选举。
The scenario under discussion excludes the far-right Jewish Power party, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, and largely excludes the far-right Religious Zionism party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, as well as the religious Haredi parties and Arab parties. Herzog pushes for stability Israeli President Isaac Herzog has emphasized his efforts to avoid repeat elections.
“我正在竭尽全力确保以色列拥有一个稳定的政府,”他在周一接受以色列报纸《耶迪特报》采访时说。
“I am doing everything in my power to ensure that Israel has a stable government,” he said in an interview with the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday.
“我一定会尽一切可能防止再次选举,”他补充道,并警告称“以色列面临巨大的国家挑战,无法承受反复选举的成本。”
“I will absolutely do everything I can to prevent repeat elections,” he added, warning that “Israel faces enormous national challenges and cannot afford the cost of repeated election cycles.”
然而,反对派右翼以色列民族党领袖阿维格多尔·利伯曼周二拒绝了与内塔尼亚胡组建统一政府的想法。
However, Avigdor Liberman, leader of the opposition right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party, rejected the idea of forming a unity government with Netanyahu on Tuesday.
“这将是对后代的耻辱,也将是一个瘫痪的政府,”他在《耶迪特报》组织的会议上说。
“It would be a disgrace for generations to come, and it would be a paralyzed government,” he said at a conference organized by Yedioth Ahronoth.
“内塔尼亚胡不关心安全或其他任何事情,只关心权力。对一系列灾难负有责任的人不能担任公职,”他补充道。
“Netanyahu does not care about security or anything else, only power. A person who bears responsibility for a series of disasters cannot hold office,” he added.
利伯曼表示,反对党将在选举后决定他们的总理候选人,前提是他们获胜。
Liberman said the opposition parties would decide on their candidate for prime minister after the elections if they win.
与此同时,反对党蓝白党领袖贝尼·甘茨表示支持联合政府的理念,但排除了阿拉伯党派和哈雷迪派的参与。
Meanwhile, Benny Gantz, leader of the opposition Blue and White party, expressed support for the idea of a unity government but ruled out the participation of Arab parties and the Haredim.
“以色列无法承受另一个依赖阿拉伯党派或哈雷迪党派的政府,”他在美国社交媒体平台X上写道,并补充道:“以色列需要一个广泛的锡安主义联合政府。”
“Israel cannot afford another government that relies on Arab parties or Haredi parties,” he wrote on US social media platform X, adding: “Israel needs a broad Zionist unity government.”
然而,反对党领袖雅伊尔·拉皮德却拒绝了这一提议,表达了希望赫尔佐格不会推动他所说的“另一个假联合政府”的愿望。他说,内塔尼亚胡将“欺骗他的伙伴”在这样的政府中,并呼吁其他反对党提前宣布他们将拒绝加入该政府。正在讨论的方案以色列报纸《马阿里夫》最近透露了一项针对联合政府的提议方案,该方案将排除本·格维尔和斯莫特里奇。
Opposition leader Yair Lapid, however, rejected the proposal, expressing hope that Herzog would not push for what he described as “another fake unity government.”He said Netanyahu would “deceive his partners” in such a government and called on the other opposition parties to declare in advance that they would refuse to join it. A formula under discussion The Israeli newspaper Maariv recently revealed a proposed formula for a unity government that would exclude Ben Gvir and Smotrich.
根据该安排,内塔尼亚胡将在以色列议会选举他为以色列总统之前,担任总理一年半。
Under the arrangement, Netanyahu would serve as prime minister for a year and a half before being elected president of Israel by the Knesset.
本·格维尔认为内塔尼亚胡正计划组建一个包括反对党领袖加迪·艾森科特(亚沙党领袖)的政府,而不是他自己。
Ben Gvir believes Netanyahu is planning to form a government that includes opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Yashar party, instead of him.
“所有迹象表明,总理正计划与加迪·艾森科特结盟,”本·格维尔周二表示,敦促内塔尼亚胡保持该联盟“纯粹且全面地右翼”。“不要从我这里夺走席位,去从艾森科特那里夺走,”他对内塔尼亚胡说。艾森科特尚未正式回应加入联合政府的可能性。
“All indications suggest that the prime minister is planning an alliance with Gadi Eisenkot,” Ben Gvir said Tuesday, urging Netanyahu to keep the bloc “purely and comprehensively right-wing.”“Instead of taking seats away from me, go and take them away from Eisenkot,” he told Netanyahu. Eisenkot has not officially addressed the possibility of joining a unity government.
与此同时,以色列驻纽约总领事奥菲尔·阿库尼斯呼吁组建“广泛的民族团结政府”,据《马里夫报》报道,他说以色列“需要向世界以及他所谓的‘敌人’展示其团结”。
Meanwhile, Israel’s consul general in New York, Ofir Akunis, called for the formation of a “broad national unity government,” saying, according to Maariv, that Israel “needed to demonstrate its unity to the world” and to those he described as “its enemies.”
以色列评论员亚龙·德克尔周二在《新消息报》发表的一篇文章中指出,一场没有定论的选举结果可能会让以色列回到1984年建立的团结政府模式。
Mutual concessions Israeli commentator Yaron Dekel argued in an article published by Yedioth Ahronoth on Tuesday that an inconclusive election result could bring Israel back to the model of a unity government established in 1984.
他说,这将要求内塔尼亚胡“抛弃本-格维尔和斯莫特里奇,冻结司法改革计划,并同意对2023年10月7日的事件进行独立调查”。他指出,这些步骤将为艾森科特向其选民解释加入内塔尼亚胡领导的政府提供理由。
He said this would require Netanyahu to “abandon Ben Gvir and Smotrich, freeze the judicial overhaul plan and agree to an independent investigation into the events of Oct. 7, 2023.”These steps would give Eisenkot grounds to justify joining a government led by Netanyahu to his voters, he noted.
2023年初,内塔尼亚胡政府推进一项司法改革计划,称这将“平衡立法、行政和司法权力”。然而,反对派认为这是“针对民主的政变,将把以色列变成独裁国家”。
At the beginning of 2023, Netanyahu’s government advanced a judicial overhaul plan that it said would “balance the legislative, executive and judicial authorities.”The opposition, however, viewed it as “a coup against democracy that would turn Israel into a dictatorship.”
德克尔指出,反对派领导人目前排除与内塔尼亚胡合作。然而,他们同时拒绝依靠阿拉伯政党,加上两大阵营可能陷入僵局,可能会让他们“别无选择”。他解释说,再次举行选举无法保证任何一方阵营地位改善,反而可能导致更糟糕的结果。
Dekel noted that opposition leaders currently rule out cooperation with Netanyahu. However, their simultaneous refusal to rely on Arab parties, amid the possibility of a deadlock between the two blocs, could leave them “with no other choice.”He explained that holding another election would not guarantee either bloc an improved position and could instead produce an even worse result.
在他看来,使团结政府成为可能的一个因素是内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特之间没有个人敌意,这可能为谈判提供“一个起点”。德克尔强调,然而,双方都必须做出“重大让步”。他说,艾森科特可以同意在轮换协议下由内塔尼亚胡先担任总理,以换取明确的政治和安全收益。
In his view, one factor making a unity government conceivable is the absence of personal hostility between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, which could provide “a starting point for negotiations.”Dekel stressed, however, that both sides would have to make “major concessions.”Eisenkot could agree to Netanyahu serving as prime minister first under a rotation agreement, in exchange for clear political and security gains, he said.
他认为:“将本·格维尔(Ben Gvir)和斯莫特里奇(Smotrich)赶出政府,任命艾森科特(Eisenkot)为国防部长,暂停司法改革计划,并成立一个独立委员会来调查10月7日的事件,这些举措可以构成一套‘成就’,艾森科特可以用这些‘成就’向选民证明自己有资格加入政府。”据德克尔(Dekel)称,如果内塔尼亚胡(Netanyahu)想首先担任总理,就必须提前做出必要的让步,其中最关键的一点就是放弃他的极右翼盟友。
He argued that “removing Ben Gvir and Smotrich from the government, appointing Eisenkot as defense minister, halting the judicial overhaul plan and establishing an independent commission to investigate the events of Oct. 7 could form a package of achievements that Eisenkot could present to his voters to justify joining the government.”Netanyahu, for his part, would have to make the required concessions in advance if he wanted to serve as prime minister first, according to Dekel. Chief among them would be abandoning his far-right allies.
以色列议会的选举定于10月27日举行。民意调查显示,无论是内塔尼亚胡所在的政党联盟还是犹太反对派联盟,都无法单独组建政府。
Elections for the Israeli Knesset are scheduled for Oct. 27. Opinion polls indicate that neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the Jewish opposition bloc will be able to form a government.
内塔尼亚胡自2022年12月底以来一直担任现任政府的领导人。这个政府被形容为“以色列历史上最右翼的政府”。此外,内塔尼亚胡还面临三项腐败、贿赂和滥用职权的指控。
Netanyahu has chaired the current government since late December 2022. It is described as the “most right-wing government in Israel’s history.”Netanyahu also faces charges of corruption, bribery, and breach of trust in three cases.
除了国内的腐败审判外,自2024年以来,国际刑事法院也在通缉内塔尼亚胡,指控他在加沙地带犯有战争罪和反人类罪;自2023年10月以来,加沙地带已有超过7.4万人在种族灭绝性的战争中丧生。
In addition to the domestic corruption trial, Netanyahu has been wanted by the International Criminal Court since 2024 over war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in the Gaza Strip, where more than 74,000 people have been killed in a genocidal war since October 2023.