东京，10月15日：预计日本几家大型资产管理公司将宣布增持国内债券的计划。目前市场正密切关注这些公司是否会加大减持海外资产的力度，从而将资金回流国内。
TOKYO, Oct 15 : Some of Japan's largest asset managers are expected to unveil plans to buy more domestic bonds with markets focusing on whether they would step up divestments of overseas assets to bring money back home.
分析人士指出，虽然大规模资金回流的可能性不大，但持续的资本回流有望为日元汇率提供支撑。当前，日本国内需求的变化正受到各方密切关注，因为其动向可能影响到海外市场走势。
Although a major reallocation is unexpected, consistent flows home could put a floor under the yen, analysts say, and would come at a time when shifts in Japanese demand are being closely watched because they can move foreign markets.
近几个月来，大量海外资本的回流问题备受瞩目。此前，高市早苗首相领导的日本政府一直在努力提振日元汇率，后者曾在7月份跌至40年来的最低水平。
A possible repatriation of some of the large amounts of capital deployed overseas has been under the spotlight in recent months as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government scrambled to shore up the yen, which dropped to a 40-year low in July.
据日本生命保险协会统计，日本各寿险公司管理的资产规模约为2.5万亿美元，其中约四分之一投资于海外市场。近期，多家公司均表示，随着国内债券收益率不断上升，它们正考虑增持此类债券。
Japanese life insurers manage about $2.5 trillion in assets, about a quarter of which is held overseas, according to the Life Insurance Association of Japan. Several firms have lately signalled that they were eyeing domestic bonds as yields surged.
“目前我认为还不存在大量抛售海外债券、转而购买日本国债的趋势，”SMBC日兴证券的金融市场主管松本庆太说道，“这些寿险公司正谨慎地增加对日本国债的配置……它们的策略仍是在收益率上升时逢低买入。”日本财务省的数据显示，今年日本投资者净抛售海外债券的金额已超过5万亿日元（约合320亿美元），其中寿险公司的抛售额约为2890亿日元。
"I don't believe there is a trend toward repatriation in terms of divesting from foreign bonds to buy JGBs right now," said Keita Matsumoto, head of financial markets at SMBC Nikko Securities. "(Life insurers) are cautiously increasing their exposure to JGBs ... Their approach remains one of buying on dips as yields rise." Ministry of Finance figures show Japanese investors have made net foreign bond sales topping 5 trillion yen ($32 billion) this year, about 289 billion yen worth of which came from life insurers.
就在两年多前，日本央行还对10年期日本国债的收益率实施上限管控，如今该收益率已上涨两倍，30年来首次突破3%大关。
In Japan, 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields, which until little more than two years ago were capped by the central bank, have tripled to soar past 3 per cent for the first time in three decades.
德意志银行日本固定收益策略主管大森祥基指出，随着30年期日本国债的收益率稳定在4%左右，国内保险公司可能会进一步增持此类债券；此外，避险比率的上升或许也预示着未来会有更多海外债券被抛售。
Domestic insurers may also step up buying 30-year JGBs as yields consolidate around 4 per cent, while increases in hedge ratios may be a precursor to selling foreign bonds, said Shoki Omori, Deutsche Bank's chief fixed-income strategist for Japan.
“在BOJ仍在加息期间，他们将保持克制，”大森说。“有些人将在到期时让对冲的外国债券自然到期。我不预期会出现广泛的卖出外国债券并将资金转回日元的举动。”
"They will stay measured while the BOJ is still raising rates," Omori said. "Some will let hedged foreign bonds run off as they mature. What I do not expect is a broad move to sell foreign bonds and bring the money back into yen."
“更高的收益率已将买家重新吸引回日本国债，”他补充道。“但他们并未将资金带回国内。”'为时尚早，无需介入'日本生命、明治安田生命和第一生命这三家公司合计管理近220万亿日元的资产，是预计将在下周公布其投资计划的保险公司之一。
"Higher yields have brought the buyers back to JGBs," he added. "They have not brought the money home." 'TOO EARLY TO STEP IN' Nippon Life, Meiji Yasuda Life and Daiichi Life, which collectively manage nearly 220 trillion yen in assets, are among insurers that are expected to unveil their investment plans next week.
今年，通胀、主权债务上升以及人工智能热潮提振的增长预期推动了发达国家债券收益率的大幅上升。在日本，高市早苗的支出计划和减税承诺也加剧了市场担忧。
Inflation, rising sovereign debt and growth expectations boosted by the AI boom have driven yields sharply higher across the developed world this year. In Japan, Takaichi's spending plans and tax-cut pledge have also added to market concerns.
一年前，日本主要人寿保险公司曾表示，他们预计将削减日元计价债券持仓，而此后全曲线收益率的上升表明市场尚未见底。
A year ago, major Japanese life insurers flagged that they expected to trim their yen-denominated bond holdings and subsequent rises in yields across the curve indicate the market has not found a bottom yet.
在负利率时代削减日本国债持仓的日本机构正在逐步重新评估其国内市场，住友三井DS资产管理公司投资部产品专家林哲司表示。
Japanese institutions that slashed JGB holdings during the negative-interest-rate era are embarking on a gradual reappraisal of their home market, said Tetsuji Hayashi, a product specialist in Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management's investment department.
“我们开始看到回归日元债券的趋势，”林哲司说。“随着利率上升，10年期日本国债收益率已超过对冲汇率风险的10年期美国国债收益率。”日本央行上月将关键利率提升至31年来的最高水平，许多分析师预计，鉴于价格压力持续扩大和日元疲软的担忧，央行将在今年年底前再次加息。
"We are starting to see a shift back toward yen bonds," Hayashi said. "As interest rates rise, the 10-year JGB yield has surpassed the FX-hedged 10-year US Treasury yield." The Bank of Japan raised its key rate to a 31-year high last month and many analysts expect the central bank to raise interest rates again by the end of this year amid persistent concerns over broadening price pressures and yen weakness.
一家大型人寿保险公司的资产管理官员表示，随着日本央行减少债券持仓并收紧政策，而该国财政状况仍然脆弱，日本国债全曲线上的供需动态担忧依然存在。
Worries about supply-and-demand dynamics remain across the JGB spectrum as the BOJ reduces its bond holdings and tightens policy while the country's finances remain shaky, said an asset management official at a major life insurance company.
一位不愿透露姓名的官员表示，日本的债券收益率已升至“相当有吸引力的水平”，但尚未达到峰值。该官员表示：“现在介入还为时过早。”该官员补充道：“日本央行尚未完成加息，财政方面的担忧也尚未得到缓解。”
Bond yields in Japan have risen to "fairly attractive levels," but they have yet to peak, said the official, who asked not to be identified as they were not authorised to speak to the media. "It is still too early to step in," the official said. "The Bank of Japan is not done raising rates, and fiscal concerns have not cleared up either."