2026年10月20日 随着联合国驻黎巴嫩临时部队（UNIFIL）的任期临近结束，对黎巴嫩南部未来的不确定性日益加剧。黎巴嫩总理纳瓦夫·萨拉姆警告称，需要“避免联合国驻黎巴嫩临时部队撤军可能造成的真空，如果撤军是在未就部署新的国际部队达成协议的情况下进行的。”黎巴嫩政府也一直在争取最后时刻延长联合国驻黎巴嫩临时部队的任期，但迄今未获成功。最有可能的情况是，来自46个国家的7565名维和人员将于2026年12月31日开始从联合国巡逻的所谓“蓝线”地带撤出。
October 20, 2026 As the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, nears its end, uncertainty over the future of southern Lebanon is growing. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has warned of the need to "avert the vacuum that UNIFIL's withdrawal could create, were it to take place without agreement on a new international force to replace it." The Lebanese government has also been pushing for a last-minute extension of UNIFIL's mandate, but so far without success. It is most likely that the 7,565 peacekeepers from 46 countries will begin withdrawing from the UN-patrolled so-called Blue Line zone on December 31, 2026.
“蓝线”全长120公里（75英里），是联合国确定的以色列和黎巴嫩之间的撤军线，而非国际公认的边界。它于2000年设立。然而，早在1978年，多国联合国驻黎巴嫩临时部队部队就已部署至该地区，以在以色列为回应巴勒斯坦武装团体袭击而入侵黎巴嫩后监控局势。
The Blue Line, which stretches for 120 kilometers (75 miles), is a UN-identified line of withdrawal between Israel and Lebanon, not an internationally agreed border. It was established in 2000. However, as early as in 1978, multinational UNIFIL troops were deployed to this region to monitor the area after Israel invaded Lebanon in response to attacks by Palestinian armed groups.
2006年以色列-真主党战争后，任务授权扩大为支持黎巴嫩军队执行联合国安理会第1701号决议。该决议要求蓝线与利塔尼河之间的区域不得有除黎巴嫩政府和联合国驻黎巴嫩临时部队所属以外的武装人员、资产和武器。决议还要求以色列军队从黎巴嫩南部撤出。
After the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, the mandate was expanded to support the Lebanese army in implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The resolution calls for an area between the Blue Line and the Litani River to be free of armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those belonging to the Lebanese government and UNIFIL. It also calls for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon.
然而，在真主党于2023年10月发动跨境袭击及2024年随之爆发的战争后，以色列一直占据黎巴嫩大片领土，划定了一个自称的“黄线”安全区，该区位于蓝线以北。
However, following cross-border attacks by Hezbollah in October 2023 and the ensuing war in 2024, Israel has been occupying large swaths of Lebanese territory in a self-declared security zone called the Yellow Line, which is located north of the Blue Line.
根据国际移民组织的数据，在2026年冲突重燃期间，黎巴嫩有超过120万人流离失所，截至9月29日，约有32.9万人仍在境内流离失所。以色列还在黎巴嫩南部对住宅和关键基础设施造成了大面积破坏，称其需要保护以色列北部公民免受来自该地区的袭击。
Of the more than 1.2 million people displaced in Lebanon during the renewed conflict in 2026, around 329,000 remained internally displaced as of September 29, according to the International Organization for Migration. Israel has also caused extensive destruction to homes and key infrastructure in southern Lebanon, saying it needs to protect its citizens in northern Israel from attacks launched from the area.
真主党——被包括美国和德国在内的多个国家列为恐怖组织，而欧盟将其武装派别列为恐怖组织——继续拒绝解除武装，理由是只要以色列军队仍留在黎巴嫩，就需要保卫自己。
Hezbollah — which is designated as a terrorist organization by several countries, including the United States and Germany, while the European Union designates its armed wing as a terrorist organization — continues to reject disarmament, citing the need to defend itself for as long as Israeli forces remain in Lebanon.
真主党还与伊朗关系密切，如果伊朗和以色列之间爆发新的冲突，真主党很可能会在以色列北部开辟第二战场以支持伊朗。
Hezbollah is also closely linked to Iran, and in case of renewed conflict between Iran and Israel, it's likely that Hezbollah would open a second front in Israel's north in support of Iran.
“黎巴嫩南部局势依然紧张，”联黎部队发言人坎迪斯·阿迪尔对德国之声表示。“我们看到以色列军事行动持续不断，包括战机、直升机和无人机侵入黎巴嫩领空、空袭、炮击和迫击炮射击。”她补充道：“在我们的任务授权于12月31日结束之前，我们将继续监测和报告事态发展，并每天在各方之间进行联络，以确保平民、人道主义援助和维和巡逻队的安全通行，随后撤军和撤离将分阶段进行。”
"The situation in southern Lebanon remains tense," Kandice Ardiel, UNIFIL's spokesperson, told DW. "We are seeing continued Israeli military operations, including overflights of Lebanese airspace by jets, helicopters and drones, airstrikes, artillery strikes and mortar fire." "Until our mandate ends on December 31, we continue to monitor and report what is happening, and we are liaising between the parties on a daily basis to ensure safe movements of civilians, humanitarian aid, and peacekeeping patrols," she said, adding that the drawdown and withdrawal would then take place in stages.
任务授权的结束也意味着数千名驻黎巴嫩南部的联黎部队官兵任务的终结。“人们一起建立了事业、友谊、技能和使命感，”阿迪尔说。“结束从来都不容易，特别是当人们感觉到我们的工作仍然被需要时。”贝鲁特缺乏权威、资金短缺使解除武装困境雪上加霜 联黎部队即将撤军也凸显了黎巴嫩政府面临的两大困境。
The end of the mandate also means the end of the mission for thousands of UNIFIL troops in southern Lebanon. "People have built careers, friendships, skills and a sense of purpose together," Ardiel said. "Endings are never easy, especially when there is a sense that the work we do is still needed." Beirut's lack of authority, money compounds disarmament dilemma The upcoming withdrawal of UNIFIL also highlights two major dilemmas for Lebanon's government.
“贝鲁特担心，在缺乏国际军事力量的情况下，无论是以色列方面还是真主党方面违反任何协议的行为都无法被追踪，”驻华盛顿的中东问题研究员、乔治·华盛顿大学兼职教授保罗·沙亚对德国之声表示。
"Beirut is concerned that violations of any agreements, whether on the Israeli or the Hezbollah side, can't be tracked in the absence of an international military force," Paul Shaya, a Washington-based Middle East researcher and adjunct professor at George Washington University, told DW.
此外，在经历了多年的政治僵局、新冠疫情、飙升的通胀和经济危机、2020年贝鲁特港爆炸以及2024年以色列与真主党战争造成的破坏后，黎巴嫩的经济命脉依赖于国际资助。然而，来自美国和海湾国家急需的大量投资，与真主党解除武装挂钩。
Furthermore, after years of political deadlock, the COVID-19 pandemic, soaring inflation and economic crises, the Beirut port blast in 2020 and the destruction caused by the 2024 war between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon's economic lifeline depends on international funding. However, a large share of the much-needed investment from the United States and Gulf states is tied to Hezbollah's disarmament.
沙亚说：“归根结底，这将取决于总统约瑟夫·奥恩和总理纳瓦夫·萨拉姆能否争取到足够的资金和资源来支持黎巴嫩军队。”
"Ultimately, it is going to be dependent on President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to secure sufficient funding and resources to support the Lebanese military," said Shaya.
国际危机组织黎巴嫩问题研究员大卫·伍德表示，在此之前，奥恩和萨拉姆让真主党解除武装的选择非常有限。“他们已与以色列展开直接对话，以终结这场灾难性的冲突，但这一进程既不包括真主党，也不包括其支持者伊朗——双方都反对该组织解除武装，”他说。
Until that happens, Aoun and Salam have very limited options for disarming Hezbollah, said David Wood, Lebanon researcher at the International Crisis Group. "They have opened direct talks with Israel to bring about an end to the disastrous conflict, but that process includes neither Hezbollah nor its backer Iran — both of which oppose the group's disarmament," he said.
伍德认为，在与以色列的谈判中，贝鲁特手中的筹码很少，因为它未能确保真主党的遵从。他还担心，黎巴嫩领导人几乎没有杠杆迫使真主党交出武器，因为这可能在国内引发致命冲突。过去，真主党曾公开警告，试图以武力夺取其武器将导致战争。
In Wood's view, Beirut has few bargaining chips in negotiations with Israel because it has been unable to secure Hezbollah's compliance. He is also worried that Lebanon's leaders have little leverage to force Hezbollah to surrender its weapons, as this could trigger a deadly domestic conflict in the country. In the past, Hezbollah has openly warned that trying to seize its weapons by force would lead to war.
尽管以色列在真主党控制的黎巴嫩南部地区和贝鲁特部分地区摧毁了许多真主党隧道和武器储存设施，但由于更广泛的伊朗战争导致补给路线受限或中断，以及其盟友叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德倒台，观察人士表示，真主党的装备仍优于黎巴嫩武装部队。新的欧盟任务能否取代联黎部队？
Despite Israel's destruction of many Hezbollah tunnels and weapons-storage facilities in Hezbollah-dominated areas in southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut, the limitation or disruption of supply routes due to the wider Iran war, as well as the fall of their ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad, observers say Hezbollah remains better equipped than the Lebanese armed forces. Could the new EU mission replace UNIFIL in Lebanon?
10月12日，欧盟外长同意设立欧盟驻黎巴嫩支援团（EUSM Lebanon），初始授权期为三年。
On October 12, European Union foreign ministers agreed to establish a European Union Support Mission in Lebanon, or EUSM Lebanon, with an initial three-year mandate.
欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡娅·卡拉斯表示：“它包含文职和军事两大支柱，”并补充说，“这受到当地当局的高度欢迎。”根据欧盟理事会的说法，该任务旨在通过加强黎巴嫩武装部队和内安部队的能力（包括根据联合国安理会第1701号决议加强边境安全能力），为黎巴嫩的和平与安全作出贡献。
"It has a civilian and military pillar," EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said, adding that "this is highly welcomed by the local authorities." According to the European Council, the mission is to contribute to peace and security in Lebanon by strengthening the capabilities of the Lebanese armed forces and internal security forces, including in border security in accordance with the UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
然而，该任务并不旨在取代联黎部队。它将初期在利塔尼河以北开展行动，而不是部署维和人员巡逻黎巴嫩南部。
However, the mission is not intended to replace UNIFIL. Rather than deploying peacekeepers to patrol southern Lebanon, it is set to initially operate north of the Litani River.
包括意大利、法国、西班牙、爱尔兰、德国、奥地利、芬兰和波兰在内的多个现有联黎部队出兵国，已表示有意向新的欧盟驻黎巴嫩支援团提供人员和资源。
Several existing UNIFIL contributors, including Italy, France, Spain, Ireland, Germany, Austria, Finland and Poland, already expressed interest in contributing personnel and resources to the new EUSM Lebanon mission.
贝鲁特政府方面认为，这是一个积极信号，沙亚指出。他补充说，黎巴嫩社会也强烈支持黎巴嫩军队，“许多人视其为该国唯一能够维护黎巴嫩主权并代表整个国家的机构。”
For the government in Beirut, this is a positive signal, noted Shaya. He added that Lebanese society also strongly supports the Lebanese military, "which many see as the only institution in the country that can uphold Lebanon's sovereignty and represent the entire country."