
虚假信息不该如此轻易地钻进主流新闻报道,但现实就是如此。上周,一家新民调机构“韦奇伍德民调”(Wedgewood Polling)被揭露为骗局操作,多家新闻媒体和民调汇总网站因此尴尬不已。该机构炮制了数十份伪造的选民调查,其中许多有利于民主党候选人。韦奇伍德现在声称,这只是在进行一项社会实验,旨在展示虚假数据是多么容易进入选举报道。
It shouldn’t be this easy for false information to worm its way into mainstream news reporting. But it is. Several news outlets and polling aggregators were embarrassed last week after a new polling firm, Wedgewood Polling, was revealed to be a hoax operation. The firm had produced dozens of fabricated voter surveys, many of which favored Democratic candidates. Wedgewood now claims it was merely conducting a social experiment, to show how easily phony data can enter into election coverage.
韦奇伍德骗局的受害者众多,包括内特·西尔弗(Nate Silver)的“西尔弗通讯”(Silver Bulletin)、《今日美国》(USA Today)、《新闻周刊》(Newsweek)和《纽约时报》(New York Times);后者从其追踪页面删除了该机构的15份胡扯民调,并发布了编辑说明。
The victims of the Wedgewood hoax are many, including Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, USA Today, Newsweek, and the New York Times, which removed 15 of the organization's baloney polls from its tracking page and issued an editor’s note.
不幸的是,韦奇伍德事件并非孤例。它反映出媒体领域一个更深层、更严重的问题。无论是故意还是无心,坏信息都经常溜进主流报道,涉及的主题远不止中期选举,且往往塑造政治信念、影响健康决策,甚至左右立法。以那条广为宣传的说法为例:美国大部分政治暴力由右翼制造。该说法初出茅庐时,媒体大肆渲染。
The Wedgewood incident is, unfortunately, not unique. It is representative of a much deeper, more serious problem in media. Bad information, whether deliberate or accidental, routinely slips into mainstream reporting, touching subjects well beyond midterm elections, and often shaping political beliefs, health decisions, and even legislation. Consider the much-publicized claim that the right is responsible for most of the political violence in the U.S. Back when this claim first reared its head, it got plenty of play in the press.
问题在于,支撑该说法的研究根本站不住脚。只有把监狱斗殴算作“政治暴力”,把囚犯归类为“右翼”,右翼才“占了绝大多数”美国政治暴力。注意,没有任何其他群体被套用这一标准。这是个笑话般的研究——有人真正读过它吗?但它毫无障碍地获得了频繁且喘不过气般的报道。
The problem is that the underlying study is nonsense. The “right” is responsible for the lion’s share of all U.S. political violence – so long as we count prison fights as “political violence” and we classify inmates as “right-wing.”Note that no other group is held to this standard. It is a joke of a study — did anyone even read it? But it has had no trouble drawing frequent and breathless coverage.
这让人想起2018年,主流媒体未经批判地推波助澜,把民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)的DNA检测当作她拥有美洲原住民血统的铁证。“对参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦的DNA分析提供了有力证据,证明她拥有美洲原住民血统,这一直是她的批评者嘲讽的说法,”美联社(Associated Press)如此宣称。
The episode recalls 2018, when major media uncritically promoted Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s DNA test as proof of her Native American ancestry. “A DNA analysis done on Sen. Elizabeth Warren provides strong evidence she has Native American heritage, a claim her critics have long mocked,” declared the Associated Press.
一些报道甚至带着一种自鸣得意的正义感,直指特朗普总统,后者曾嘲笑沃伦声称的血统。“特朗普[政府],12小时内第二次:别信科学,”时任《华盛顿邮报》资深政治记者的亚伦·布莱克写道。但随后读者做了记者和标题撰写者显然没做的事:他们真的读了DNA报告,发现沃伦距离任何美洲原住民血统相隔六到十代——充其量只有1/64到1/1024的美洲原住民血统。看来有人只读了执行摘要就没往下看。
Some coverage even took a tone of smug righteousness aimed squarely at President Trump, who had mocked Warren’s claimed ancestry. “The Trump [administration], for the second time in 12 hours: Don’t believe science,” wrote Aaron Blake, then Washington Post senior political reporter. But then readers did what the journalists and headline writers had apparently failed to do: They actually read the DNA report and found that Warren was six to ten generations removed from any Native American ancestry — at best between 1/64th and 1/1,024th Native American. Looks like someone didn’t read past the executive summary.
这起DNA风波让人想起2015年的一个早先事件,当时新闻媒体轻信了一项骗局研究,声称人们只需吃巧克力就能减肥。那项研究是更广泛实验的一部分,旨在测试记者识别垃圾科学的能力。他们当然失败了。所谓的发现瞬间出现在新闻文章中,毫无怀疑的痕迹——《每日邮报》、《赫芬顿邮报》、《现代医疗》等。《这整个科学领域已经被科学家和记者之间极其低劣的标准搞得有点腐败了,”该研究的作者、一位真名叫约翰的记者当时告诉我。“外面有聪明人被这些东西骗了,因为他们以为科学家知道自己在干什么。”
The DNA episode was itself reminiscent of an earlier incident from 2015, in which news outlets fell for a hoax study claiming people could lose weight simply by eating chocolate. That study was part of a broader experiment testing reporters' ability to detect junk science. They failed, of course. The supposed findings appeared in news articles instantly without a trace of skepticism — in the Daily Mail, HuffPo, Modern Healthcare and others. “Our point was not that journalists could be tricked by fakers, but rather that scientists themselves in this field and other fields are making the kinds of mistakes that we made on purpose,” the study’s author, a journalist whose real first name is John, told me at the time. “This whole area of science has become kind of corrupted by really poor standards between scientists and journalists,” he added. “There are smart people out there who are getting fooled by this stuff because they think scientists know what they’re doing.”
但得了吧,一些科学家显然根本不知道自己在说什么,或者就是在编造——可他们的预测却经常被视为权威。这些主张常被不加质疑地拔高,往往最危险。例如,回想一下江湖骗子保罗·R·埃利希。
But boy, some scientists clearly have no idea what they’re talking about or are just making stuff up — yet their predictions are regularly treated as authoritative. These claims, routinely elevated without question, are often the most dangerous. Recall, for example, the quack Paul R. Ehrlich.
他在20世纪中叶预测,人口过剩将导致大规模粮食短缺、资源枯竭、骚乱,并在20世纪70年代和80年代引发全球饥荒。1970年,他预测未来20年将有40亿人因粮食和资源短缺而死亡。他预测的一切都没有发生——情况恰恰相反。然而,埃利希的言论仍享有一定程度的合法性,因为它们被作为硬新闻报道。人们相信他,是因为媒体为他撑腰。
He predicted in the mid-20th century that overpopulation would cause mass food shortages, depleted resources, riots, and global famine by the 1970s and 1980s. In 1970, he predicted that four billion people would die over the next 20 years from food and resource shortages. Nothing he predicted happened — just the opposite. Ehrlich’s claims nevertheless enjoyed a certain level of legitimacy because they were covered as straight news. People believed him because the media propped him up.
甚至有人正是因为相信他关于人口过剩的预测,而选择不生育子女。媒体对埃利希的捧场并非孤立事件。几十年来,我们一直被灌输此类末日狂言,标题包括:“除非采取剧烈变革,否则地球可能在未来十年内跨越关键全球变暖临界点”(2023年);“主要欧洲城市将沉入不断上升的海水之下,英国将在2020年前陷入‘西伯利亚式’气候”(2004年);“联合国预测:若不遏制全球变暖将酿成灾难”(1989年);“美国科学家预见新冰河时代来临”(1971年);“专家称北冰洋即将变为敞开的海洋;担心若发生变化将引发灾难性的气候转变;其他专家认为极地冰盖并未变薄”(1969年),以及“科学家称:北极气候变暖加速冰川融化,导致海平面上升”(1947年)。
Some even choose not to have children precisely because they believed his predictions about overpopulation. The media elevation of Ehrlich was not an isolated event. We have been fed a steady diet of such doomer kookery for decades, including headlines that read, “Earth is likely to cross a critical global warming threshold within the next decade unless drastic changes are made” (2023); “[M]ajor European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020” (2004); “U.N. Predicts Disaster If Global Warming Not Checked” (1989); “U.S. scientist sees new ice age coming” (1971); “Expert says Arctic Ocean will soon be an open sea; catastrophic shifts in climate feared if change occurs; other specialists see no thinning of polar ice cap” (1969), and “Warming Arctic climate melting glaciers faster, raising ocean level, scientist says” (1947).
虚假、错误乃至完全不正确的信息不应如此轻易地进入新闻流。但这就是我们所处的世界。有时记者偷懒或面临截稿压力。有时他们根本不懂材料,只是接受提纲挈领的说法,并信任作者既诚实又称职。有时记者本人就是不诚实。错误信息的来源也各不相同。有时错误是无心之失。有时,坚定的意识形态者提出真诚持有但有缺陷的结论。
It shouldn’t be so easy for bogus, faulty, and flat-out incorrect information to make its way into the news flow. But this is the world we live in. Sometimes, reporters are lazy or face deadline pressure. Sometimes they just don't understand the material; they merely accept the toplines and trust the author as both honest and competent. Sometimes the journalist himself is dishonest. The sources of bad information also vary. Sometimes the error is honest. Sometimes, a committed ideologue presents a sincerely held but flawed conclusion.
有时会出现最坏的情况:一个不怀好意的行为者将宣传灌输给媒体的扩音器。无论过错在于记者还是消息来源,结果都是一样的:谎言获得了合法性,借助可信新闻机构的声誉传播,在任何人意识到出了问题之前,已经绕地球传播了好几圈。有缺陷的中期选举民调固然是一回事,但更具深远后果的是,关于生存攸关问题的假事实和垃圾科学,竟能如此轻易地逃过媒体的严格审查,绕过媒体把关人,直接钻进你的国会议员或总统的耳朵里。贝克特·亚当斯是驻华盛顿的记者兼媒体评论家。
Sometimes it’s the worst-case scenario: a bad faith actor feeding propaganda into the media megaphone. Whether the fault lies with the journalist or the source, the result is the same: A falsehood gains legitimacy, latching onto the reputation of a credible news organization, and makes its way around the world a half-dozen times before anyone realizes anything is wrong. Faulty midterm polling is one thing. Far more consequential is the ease with which fake facts and junk science on existential questions evade closer media scrutiny, slipping past the media gatekeepers and right into the ear of your congressman or president. Becket Adams is a journalist and media critic in Washington.