固定收益投资者正给予一个不透明的抗议力量以信任，该力量凭借根除腐败、强化民主标准的承诺在塞尔维亚赢得了执政权。
Fixed-income investors are giving the benefit of the doubt to an opaque protest force which won power in Serbia on a pledge to root out corruption and strengthen democratic standards.
该主权国家的外币债券在三大信用评级机构的评级均处于投资级与垃圾级的临界点，在选举结果公布后价格上涨。塞尔维亚2036年到期的美元债券收益率本周迄今已下跌12个基点至6.44%，触及一个月低位。
The sovereign’s foreign-currency bonds, which straddle the investment-junk threshold at the three main credit rating companies, jumped on the result. The yield on Serbia’s dollar bond maturing in 2036 has dropped 12 basis points so far this week to 6.44%, touching a one month low.
尽管“学生名单”——一个由支持持续近两年的大规模反政府抗议者组成的团体——尚未披露其总理候选人人选，也未明确其经济政策主张，但其胜利标志着与统治该巴尔干国家政治十余年的亚历山大·武契奇彻底决裂。
While the Student List, a group formed from backers of mass anti-government protests that gripped the nation for nearly two years, is yet to disclose its candidate for prime minister or specify its economic policy proposals, its victory offers a clean break from Aleksandar Vucic, who dominated the Balkan nation’s politics for over a decade.
伦敦荷兰国际集团（ING Bank NV）新兴市场分析师詹姆斯·威尔逊表示，选举结果“为市场呈现出明确的近期利好”，其反腐败和改革纲领为投资者提供了可靠的叙事逻辑，尽管目前尚未提供太多具体的政策细节。
The ballot result “presents a clear near-term positive for markets” with the anti-corruption and reform platform offering a solid narrative for investors without yet providing too many clear policy details, according to James Wilson, emerging markets analyst at ING Bank NV in London.
威尔逊称，武契奇在周日投票结束后90分钟内承认败选，实现了“权力的清晰交接”，消除了投资者的另一项潜在担忧。他补充道：“财政政策是一个需要密切关注的领域，但总体上似乎仍将保持一定程度的政策连续性。”
A “clean transition of power” with Vucic conceding defeat 90 minutes after polls closed on Sunday removes another potential area of concern for investors, Wilson said. “Fiscal policy is an area to keep an eye on, while overall some level of policy continuity seems likely,” he added.
这场政治变局让这座1000亿美元规模的经济体处于不确定的境地，因为目前尚不清楚这个未经考验的“学生名单”能否像反对武契奇那样成功地治理国家。
The political shakeup puts the $100 billion economy on an uncertain footing as it’s not clear whether the untested Student List can be as successful in running the country as it was in protesting against Vucic.
意大利联合信贷银行（UniCredit SpA）高级经济学家毛罗·乔吉奥·马拉诺表示，新政府很可能会更加重视问责制、透明度、法治和反腐败措施。
The new administration is likely to give more attention to accountability, transparency, the rule of law and anti-corruption measures, said Mauro Giorgio Marrano, a senior economist at UniCredit SpA.
“在经济政策方面，该运动总体上表达了对开放、市场导向型经济的支持，尽管竞选纲领在具体经济措施上提供的细节相对有限，这使得难以评估经济政策可能会在多大程度上发生变化，”他在一份报告中表示。
“On economic policy, the movement has generally signaled support for an open, market-oriented economy, although the campaign offered relatively limited detail on specific economic measures, making it difficult to assess how far economic policy is likely to change,” he said in a report.
据贝尔格莱德Raiffeisen Banka AD首席经济学家Ljiljana Grubic称，该运动的纲领显示宏观经济和外汇稳定将延续，并更加强调体制改革和财政透明度。对外国直接投资实施更具选择性的激励措施以及发展国内私营部门也有望成为优先事项之一。
The movement’s program suggests continuity in macroeconomic and foreign-exchange stability, with stronger emphasis on institutional reform and fiscal transparency, according to Ljiljana Grubic, chief economist at Raiffeisen Banka AD in Belgrade. More selective incentives for foreign direct investments and the development of the domestic private sector are also likely to be among priorities.
今年以来，投资者在塞尔维亚美元债券上获得了0.6%的回报，而彭博新兴市场美元综合总回报指数下跌了0.8%。贝尔格莱德证券交易所的关键指标BELEX15指数本周迄今下跌0.5%，将其年初至今的涨幅缩减至7.5%。
Investors eked out a 0.6% return on Serbia’s dollar bonds so far this year, compared with a 0.8% drop of the Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate Total Return Index. The Belgrade Stock Exchange’s key BELEX15 gauge dropped 0.5% so far this week, trimming its year-to-date gain to 7.5%.
第纳尔由央行严格管理，周一和周二基本持平。与一年前相比，其兑欧元汇率贬值了0.2%。
The dinar, which is tightly managed by the central bank, was little changed on Monday and on Tuesday. It’s trading 0.2% weaker against the euro compared with a year ago.
Grubic表示，对第纳尔的初步影响似乎“总体呈中性偏积极”，预计现有外汇框架将基本保持不变，竞争力将通过生产率和出口增长来提升，而非通过故意贬值。
Initial implications for the dinar appear “broadly neutral to positive” with the existing foreign-exchange framework expected to stay largely unchanged and competitiveness addressed through productivity and export growth rather than deliberate depreciation, said Grubic.
她补充道：“有序的政治过渡也应有助于缓解与选举相关的第纳尔贬值压力。”
“The orderly political transition should also help ease election-related pressure on the dinar,” she added.