美国股市在中期选举前有一段历史上表现强劲的时期。华尔街投资者一直担忧人工智能（AI）的巨额支出、大型科技公司的盈利以及美联储的利率决定。然而，过去的市场数据表明，标普500指数可能在接下来的八个交易日中上涨。在19个美国中期选举年份中，标普500指数在这一时期有18次上涨。自1950年以来，在中期选举年份中，从选举日前五个交易日开始、到选举日后三个交易日结束的八个交易日期间，该指数在19个中期年份中有18次录得上涨。
The US stock market has a historically strong period ahead of the midterm elections. Wall Street investors have been worried about heavy spending on artificial intelligence (AI), earnings from major technology companies and the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. However, past market data suggest that the S&P 500 could rise over the next eight trading sessions. The S&P 500 has risen in 18 out of 19 US midterm election years during this period. Since 1950, the index has gained in 18 of the 19 midterm years during the eight-session period that starts five trading sessions before Election Day and ends three trading sessions after it.
根据Bluekurtic Market Insights在X平台上发帖强调的数据，这一时期的中位数涨幅接近3%。标普500指数中期选举行情：关键日期今年的这一时期从10月27日开始，持续到11月6日。该交易窗口从周二市场收盘时开启，即11月3日美国中期选举前一周。据雅虎财经报道，它涵盖选举日前的五个交易日和投票后的三个交易日，于11月6日星期五结束。
The median gain during this period was nearly 3%, according to data highlighted by Bluekurtic Market Insights in a post on X.S&P 500 Midterm Election rally: Key datesThis year’s period starts on October 27 and runs through November 6. The trading window begins at Tuesday’s market close, one week before the November 3 US midterm elections. It covers five trading sessions before Election Day and three sessions after the vote, ending on Friday, November 6, according to Yahoo Finance.S&P 500 investors face new risks as Spacex-Tesla merger, Anthropic IPO plans emergeThis is the strongest eight-session period of a US midterm election year.
随着Spacex-Tesla合并、Anthropic IPO计划浮现，标普500指数投资者面临新风险这是美国中期选举年份中最强劲的八个交易日时期。雅虎财经查阅了历史数据，发现这段10月底至11月初的时期表现优于中期选举年份中任何其他八个交易日的时间段。分析发现，在一年中其他时间开始的八个交易日时期，没有任何一个在19次中录得超过15次的上涨。
Yahoo Finance reviewed the historical numbers and found that this late-October-to-early-November period performed better than any other eight-session stretch during midterm years. No eight-session period starting at another time of the year recorded gains in more than 15 out of 19 cases, the analysis found.
这一历史模式似乎与中期选举有关，而不仅仅是与一年中的时间有关。在美国四年总统选举周期的其他三年中，同样的八个交易日时期表现较弱。
The historical pattern appears to be linked to midterm elections, not just the time of year. The same eight-session period had a weaker record during the other three years of the four-year US presidential election cycle.
根据雅虎财经的分析，在那些年份中，标普500指数在19次中仅上涨了12或13次，而中期选举年份则是19次中有18次上涨。美联储决策与大型科技公司财报成为焦点本周和下周，若干重大事件可能影响标普500指数。投资者正在为美联储周三的利率决策、微软和Alphabet的财报以及美国10月就业报告做准备。这些进展可能影响投资者信心和股市走向。
During those years, the S&P 500 rose in only 12 or 13 out of 19 cases, compared with 18 out of 19 midterm years, according to Yahoo Finance’s analysis. Fed decision and big tech earnings in focusSeveral major events could influence the S&P 500 this week and next week. Investors are preparing for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday, earnings reports from Microsoft and Alphabet, and the US October jobs report. These developments could affect investor confidence and the direction of the stock market.
标普500指数仍低于近期历史高点。该指数目前较10月6日创下的纪录高点低约2%。这意味着，尽管历史趋势指向中期选举前后可能是一段强劲时期，市场已从峰值略有回落。市场的涨势可能不会在这八个交易日之后延续。历史数据显示，在中期选举年份，标普500指数在该时期之后的七个交易日中，19次里仅9次上涨。
The S&P 500 is still below its recent record high. The index is trading about 2% below the record it reached on October 6. This means the market has pulled back slightly from its peak even as historical trends point to a potentially strong period around the midterm elections. The market’s gains may not continue after this eight-session period. Historical data show that the S&P 500 rose in only nine out of 19 midterm election years during the seven trading sessions immediately after the period.
根据雅虎财经的分析，这与八日窗口期之前七个交易日的成功率相同。随着交易员在通胀担忧中等待美联储利率决策，金价维持在4000美元附近中期选举后12个月内标普500指数从未下跌中期选举后的较长期纪录要强劲得多。CFRA的萨姆·斯托瓦尔表示，在美国中期选举年份的10月31日之后的12个月里，股市从未下跌过。
This was the same success rate recorded during the seven sessions before the eight-session window, according to Yahoo Finance’s analysis. Gold prices hold near $4,000 as traders await Fed rate decision amid inflation concernsS&P 500 has never fallen in 12 months after MidtermsThe longer-term record after midterm elections has been much stronger. Sam Stovall of CFRA said that the stock market has never fallen over the 12 months following October 31 of a US midterm election year.
雅虎财经的计算显示，自1950年以来，标普500指数在全部19个此类时期均录得上涨，历史成功率为19次全中。然而，一些市场专家并不相信今年历史会重演。《保尔森展望》通讯的作者吉姆·保尔森指出，今年夏季金融状况趋紧。
Yahoo Finance’s calculations show that the S&P 500 recorded gains in all 19 such periods since 1950, giving it a historical success rate of 19 out of 19. However, some market experts are not convinced that history will repeat itself this year. Jim Paulsen, author of the Paulsen Perspectives newsletter, pointed to tighter financial conditions over the summer.
他周一对雅虎财经的布鲁克·迪帕尔马表示，油价上涨和债券收益率上升给市场增添了压力，可能使股市更难实现历史趋势所暗示的涨幅。吉姆·保尔森预计，投资者可能会对通常的季节性强势感到失望。尽管中期选举前后存在历史上正面的模式，保尔森表示，他怀疑市场在这一时期可能无法实现预期的涨幅。根据他接受雅虎财经的布鲁克·迪帕尔马采访时的说法，他的言论凸显了一种风险，即当前的经济和金融状况可能压过历史趋势。
Higher oil prices and rising bond yields have added pressure to markets and could make it harder for stocks to deliver the gains suggested by historical trends, he told Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma on Monday. Jim Paulsen expects investors could be disappointed by the usual seasonal strength. Despite the historically positive pattern around midterm elections, Paulsen said he suspects the market could fail to deliver the expected gains during this period. His comments highlight the risk that current economic and financial conditions could outweigh historical trends, according to his interview with Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma.
历史趋势有利于股市上涨，但投资者面临若干近期风险。标普500指数在美国中期选举前后的八个交易日里通常表现良好，过去19个中期选举年份中有18年录得上涨。然而，美联储的决定、大型科技公司的财报、10月就业报告、油价上涨和债券收益率都可能影响市场的下一步走势。
Historical trends favour stock market gains, but investors face several near-term risks. The S&P 500 has usually performed well during the eight trading sessions around US midterm elections, with gains in 18 of the past 19 midterm years. However, the Federal Reserve’s decision, Big Tech earnings, the October jobs report, higher oil prices and bond yields could influence the market’s next move.