保罗·努基是《每日电讯报》全球卫生安全编辑。他是一位资深记者，曾任《星期日泰晤士报》编辑，主导对全球安全威胁的报道，包括流行病、生物安全和国际卫生危机。他还广泛撰写和报道了以色列和中东的冲突。格林威治标准时间上午9:32 他们叫他“魔术师”绝非偶然。
Paul Nuki is Global Health Security Editor at The Telegraph. A senior journalist and former editor at the Sunday Times, he leads coverage on global security threats including epidemics, biosecurity, and international health crises. He has also written and reported extensively on the conflict in Israel and the Middle East. 9:32am GMT It is not for nothing that they call him the “magician”.
看来，以色列这位“大幸存者”本雅明·内塔尼亚胡可能再次能够紧握权力。
And it seems that Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s great survivor, may once again be able to cling to power.
周二下午投票结束前，以色列广播电波充斥着反对派将大获全胜的预测。
On Tuesday afternoon before the polls were closed, Israel’s airwaves were full of predictions of an opposition landslide.
他们预测，创纪录的投票规模将有利于反对派，并将导致内塔尼亚胡领导的执政联盟被彻底瓦解。
The scale of the voting – the highest on record – favoured the opposition and would see Mr Netanyahu’s ruling coalition eviscerated, they predicted.
“比比要回家了！”，几位政治评论员自信地宣称，一人甚至欢呼着对着电台麦克风高喊。
“Bibi is going home!”, several political pundits confidently proclaimed, one joyously shouting into the radio station microphone.
其他人推测，包括贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇在内的极端分子将无法跨过选举门槛，将与内塔尼亚胡一同步入退休或入狱。但他们错得有多离谱。
Others speculated that extremists including Bezalel Smotrich would fail to pass the electoral threshold and would join Mr Netanyahu in either retirement or jail. But how wrong they were.
本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在耶路撒冷与妻子萨拉一同投下选票 当地时间晚上10点发布的出口民调继续预测反对派阵营将以微弱的52比50获胜。
Benjamin Netanyahu casts his ballot alongside his wife, Sara, in Jerusalem The exit polls published at 10pm local time continued to predict a narrow 52-50 win for the opposition bloc.
这不是大获全胜，但仍是一场胜利，足以终结这位主导以色列政治近30年、执政近20年的人的政治生涯。
Not a landslide, but still a win which could finish the man who has dominated Israeli politics for nearly 30 years and ruled for nearly 20 of them.
但现在，随着新一天的阳光升起，以及超过三分之二的选票完成计数，局势似乎已发生逆转。
But now, with the sun up over a new day in Israel and over two-thirds of the vote counted, things look to have flipped.
利库德集团领导的阵营目前占据实质性领先优势。尽管仍未达到多数席位，但内塔尼亚胡有非常真实的机会继续掌权。
The Likud-led bloc now holds a substantial lead. It remains short of a majority but Mr Netanyahu has a very real chance of holding on to power.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普显然也是这么认为的，并迅速吹嘘其获胜影响力。
Donald Trump, the US president, certainly thinks so, and was quick to brag of his winning influence.
“当特朗普总统背书比比·内塔尼亚胡时，整个潮流就扭转了，”他在社交媒体发文称。
“When President Trump endorsed Bibi Netanyahu, the whole tide turned,” he said in a post on social media.
“现在，这看起来不再是一位伟大总理的决定性失败，而更像是一场大逆转后的僵局，甚至是内塔尼亚胡的一次‘胜利’。”随着剩余选票的计数，数字仍可能发生变化，而内塔尼亚胡本人在周三凌晨的竞选集会上也谨慎地没有宣称胜利。“朋友们，这只是开始。只是开始，”他说。
“Now, rather than a decisive defeat for a great prime minister, it looks like a big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN for Netanyahu.”The numbers could still change as the remaining votes are counted, and Mr Netanyahu himself was careful not to claim victory at his election rally in the early hours of Wednesday morning. “Friends, this is only the beginning. Only the beginning,” he said.
“我们仍在等待最终结果，如果真主愿意，未来一两天内我们将会得到结果。”然而，有一件事似乎依然确定——两个阿拉伯裔以色列政党表现极佳，可能成为以色列的“造王者”。
“We are still waiting for the final results, which we will have over the next day or two, God willing.”And yet one thing appears to remain certain – the two Arab-Israeli parties have done extremely well and could become Israel’s kingmakers.
最新计票显示，他们获得约18个席位。如果他们能找到与反对党合作的方式，他们可能终结内塔尼亚胡的统治并让反对党上台。任何此类协议都需要双方妥协。
The latest counting puts them at around 18 seats. They could yet finish Mr Netanyahu and bring the opposition to power were they to find a way to sit with them. Any such deal would require compromise on both sides.
内塔尼亚胡开展了一场竞选活动，旨在——或许已成功地——让与阿拉伯裔以色列政党达成任何协议在犹太裔以色列政治中成为禁忌。
Mr Netanyahu ran a campaign which aimed – perhaps successfully – to make any deal with the Arab-Israeli parties taboo in Jewish Israeli politics.
他竞选活动中一些更极端的言论暗示，与拉姆党或联合名单合作无异于拥抱哈马斯或伊朗。尽管所有投票给这两个阿拉伯裔以色列政党的人都是以色列公民。
To sit with Ra’am or the Joint List was akin to embracing Hamas or Iran, suggested some of his more extreme campaigning. And this was despite all those voting for the two Arab-Israeli parties being Israeli citizens.
然而在过去，包括内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团在内的犹太复国主义政党，曾考虑过与阿拉伯裔以色列政党联合组阁，他们再次这样做的可能性依然很大。
Yet in the past, Zionist parties, including Mr Netanyahu’s Likud, have entertained joining with the Arab-Israeli parties to form a government and it is more than possible they could do so again.
反对党阵营中最大政党“直路党”领导人加迪·艾森科特在周三凌晨对党员的讲话中，非常谨慎地没有排除这种可能性。
Gadi Eisenkot, leader of Yashar, the largest party in the opposition bloc, was very careful not to rule it out in his address to party members in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
“在这样一场投票率极高的选举后，再举行一次选举将是一个错误。我们有责任，我个人也有责任，尽一切可能尊重民众的意愿，”他对支持者说。
“After an election with such high voter turnout, it would be a mistake to hold another election. It is our duty, and my personal duty, to do everything possible to respect the will of the people,” he told supporters.
“亚沙尔团队和我打算代表所有以色列人。我将与我的变革伙伴们一道努力，确保人民的决定和意愿转化为组建一个服务于所有以色列公民的稳定锡安主义政府。”艾森科特也精心拟定了一份可能达成协议的方案。他和他的前哨人员表示，他们在种族或宗教理由上不反对与阿拉伯裔以色列政党同桌。
“The Yashar team and I intend to represent all Israelis. Together with my partners for change, I will work to ensure that the people’s decision and their will translate into the formation of a stable Zionist government that serves all Israeli citizens.”Mr Eisenkot has also carefully laid out a formula for a possible deal. He and his outriders say they have no objection to sitting with the Arab-Israeli parties on racial or religious grounds.
相反，他们表示将与任何承诺支持四项关键原则的政党同桌：“承认以色列为犹太和民主国家、承诺遵守《独立宣言》的价值观、承诺通过普遍服役法、以及承诺瓦解哈马斯。”首轮出口民调结果公布后，加迪·艾森科特在特拉维夫舞台上挥舞以色列国旗 这两个阿拉伯裔以色列政党有可能签署这四项原则吗？如果他们不签署，其支持者会面临什么命运？
Instead they say they will sit with any party that commits itself to supporting four key principles: “Recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, a commitment to the values of the Declaration of Independence, a commitment to passing a universal service law, and a commitment to dismantling Hamas.”Gadi Eisenkot waves an Israeli flag onstage after the first exit poll results in Tel Aviv Would it be possible for the two Arab-Israeli parties to sign up to these four principles? And what would befall their supporters if they did not?
《每日电讯报》周二在雅法——特拉维夫南部的阿拉伯老港区——的投票站采访的阿拉伯裔以色列选民样本显示，选民渴望妥协。所有受访者都谈到了和解与和平。
From the sample of Arab-Israelis that The Telegraph spoke to on Tuesday at polling stations in Jaffa, the old Arab port district of southern Tel Aviv, the voters want compromise. All talked of reconciliation and peace.
49岁的以色列巴勒斯坦人胡萨姆表示，他投了拉阿姆党的票，这是一个由曼苏尔·阿巴斯领导的社会保守派、融合主义的伊斯兰教政党。
Husam, 49, an Israeli Palestinian, said he had voted for the Ra’am, the socially conservative and integrationist Islamist party led by Mansour Abbas.
“我们希望为和平带来变革，”胡萨姆说，“并‘置身以色列政治内部，而非置身事外’。”
“We wish change for peace,” said Husam, and “to be inside not outside Israeli politics”.
88岁的约西夫·叶希亚出生于雅法，比以色列建国还要早，他说他投了“联合名单”的票，这是一个主要代表左翼犹太-阿拉伯利益的世俗政党联盟。“我希望阿拉伯人和犹太人都能得到公正，”他说。
Yosif Yhiah, 88, a Palestinian born in Jaffa before Israel became a state, said he was voting for The Joint List, a coalition of largely secular parties representing leftist Jewish-Arab interests. “I want justice to prevail for Arabs and Jews,” he said.
“我出生在雅法，我的邻居是犹太人。我们是朋友。这个政府让所有人都分裂了。”约西夫·亚希亚（右）和阿里埃尔·达维多夫周二在雅法的一个投票站。
22岁的犹太以色列人阿里埃尔·达维多夫也投了“联合名单”的票，他说他认为该名单比主要中左翼犹太复国主义政党民主党更能包容巴勒斯坦人的声音。
“I was born in Jaffa and my neighbours were Jewish. We were friends. This government has divided everyone.”Yosif Yhiah (right) and Ariel Davidov at a polling station in Jaffa on Tuesday Ariel Davidov, a 22-year-old Jewish Israeli, was also voting for The Joint List, saying he saw it as more inclusive of Palestinian voices than the Democrats, the main left-of-centre Zionist Party.
“我想过和平的生活。一个没有仇恨的地方。一个没有暴力的以色列，”他说。
“I’m looking to live in peace. A place without hatred. An Israel without the violence,” he said.
56岁的巴勒斯坦妇女玛娜尔说，她投了“拉姆党”的票，因为这是一个具有“以色列态度”的阿拉伯政党。
And Manar, a 56-year-old Palestinian woman, said she had voted for Ra’am as it was an Arabic party with an “Israeli attitude”.
“我们一起生活在以色列，必须一起过上美好的生活，”她补充道。玛娜尔投了“拉姆党”的票。
在以往的选举中，占以色列总人口约21%的阿拉伯裔以色列人中，相当一部分人因抗议歧视而弃权。
“We are living in Israel together and must make a good life together,” she added. Manar voted for Ra’am In previous elections, a sizeable part of the Arab-Israeli population, which represents some 21 per cent of the total Israeli population, withheld their vote in protest over discrimination.
现在他们大量出来投票，寄望改变，他们的领导人必须意识到，如果这些希望落空，机会可能再也不会来了。
Now they have voted in large numbers hoping for change and their leaders must be aware that if those hopes are dashed the opportunity may never come again.
更令人担忧的是，如果内塔尼亚胡的右翼政府能够组建新政府，阿拉伯裔以色列人的生活可能会迅速变得糟糕得多。
More worrying, if Mr Netanyahu’s Right-wing government is able to form a new government, life for Arab-Israelis could quickly become very much worse.
斯莫特里希和党内其他右翼人士不仅谈论吞并约旦河西岸和强制大规模移民，还谈论对以色列境内剩余的阿拉伯裔以色列人地区进行“犹太化”。
Mr Smotrich and others on the Right of the party have talked not just of annexing the West Bank and forcing mass emigration but of “Judaising” the remaining Arab-Israeli areas of Israel.
在接下来的一周里，以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格将征询以色列所有政党的意见——包括阿拉伯裔以色列政党——然后授予其中一方28天的组阁机会。如果失败，机会将给予另一方，如有必要，将举行第二次选举。
Over the next week, Isaac Herzog, the Israeli president, will take soundings from all of Israel’s political parties – the Arab-Israeli parties included – before offering one of them a 28-day opportunity to form the next government. If that fails, the opportunity will be offered to the other side before a second election is called, if necessary.
目前看来，只有当犹太复国主义反对派阵营和两个阿拉伯裔以色列政党能告诉赫尔佐格他们已经进行了磋商，且达成共同坐进政府的协议在望时，内塔尼亚胡才会被“送回家”。
Currently, it seems as if Mr Netanyahu will only be “sent home” if the Zionist opposition bloc and the two Arab-Israeli parties can tell Mr Herzog that they have talked and a deal to sit together is in sight.
由曼苏尔·阿巴斯领导的拉阿姆党已表示有兴趣加入“变革阵营”，并且只需承诺致力于瓦解哈马斯，即可满足艾森科特先生的四条红线。
Ra’am – led by Mansour Abbas – has expressed an interest in joining the “change bloc” and would only need to commit itself to working to dismantle Hamas to meet Mr Eisenkot’s four red lines.
“我们大家一起实现了这一目标，”阿巴斯先生周二晚间对他的支持者说。“我们将把这一选举力量转化为一支有影响力的政治力量。我们在这里——不是在场边。”
“All of us together achieved this,” Mr Abbas told his supporters on Tuesday night. “We’ll translate this electoral power into an influential political force. We’re here – not on the sidelines.”
曼苏尔·阿巴斯已表示有兴趣加入“变革阵营”。联合名单传统上不那么务实，但也并非对其选民面临的威胁抱有幻想。
Mansour Abbas has expressed an interest in joining the ‘change bloc’ The Joint List has traditionally been less pragmatic but is also under no illusion as to the threat its voters face.
其主席优素福·贾巴林周二晚间对出口民调作出回应时说，他的政党“在任何政治情景下都不能被忽视”。
Yousef Jabareen, its chairman, responded to the exit polls on Tuesday night by saying that his party “cannot be ignored under any political scenario”.
他说，他的政党“希望把比比、本·格维尔、斯莫特里奇和沾满鲜血的政府送回家”。他补充说，与拉阿姆党一样，联合名单愿意与反对派阵营合作， albeit 按照他们的条件。
He said his party “hopes to send Bibi, Ben Gvir, Smotrich and the bloodstained government home”‘He added that – like Ra’am – The Joint List would be willing to work with the opposition bloc, albeit on their terms.
“我们将自豪地代表我们的公众，并知道如何做出负责任的、以领导力驱动的决定来保护我们的社区，”他说。未来几天与反对派阵营的会谈将决定这是否真的会发生。内塔尼亚胡先生的未来现在可能掌握在阿拉伯裔以色列人手中。
“We will represent our public with pride and know how to make responsible, leadership-driven decisions to protect our community,” he said. Talks with the opposition bloc over the next few days will determine whether or not that really happens. Mr Netanyahu’s future may now be in Arab-Israeli hands.