
巴西总统选举周日落败三天后,参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗抵达迈阿密,加入博尔索纳罗政治运动中其他寻求在美国避难、并在国内面临法律麻烦的知名盟友行列。
Three days after losing Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro arrived in Miami, joining other prominent allies of the Bolsonaro political movement who have sought refuge in the United States while facing legal troubles back home.
据报道,这位落败候选人周二与妻子和两个女儿进入阿根廷,随后登上一架私人飞机,在厄瓜多尔停留后降落在佛罗里达南部。他在大选次日最高法院发布命令、要求他上交护照并禁止其离境后离开巴西。与博尔索纳罗家族有过长期法律纠葛的大法官亚历山大·德莫赖斯发布该命令,理由是参议员存在“具体逃跑风险”。
The defeated candidate reportedly crossed into Argentina with his wife and two daughters on Tuesday, then boarded a private plane that stopped in Ecuador before landing in South Florida. He left after a Supreme Court order, issued the day after the election, required him to surrender his passports and barred him from leaving Brazil. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has a long history of legal battles with the Bolsonaro family, issued the order citing a “concrete risk” that the senator would flee.
周五,在美国一个保守派播客节目中,他的兄弟爱德华多·博尔索纳罗曾建议,如果弗拉维奥输给总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦,就应该离开巴西,理由是担心其参议员任期结束后将面临的调查。
On Friday, on the American conservative podcast his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro had suggested that Flávio should leave Brazil if he lost to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, citing concerns about the investigations he could face once his Senate term ends.
周一,弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗在一段发布的视频中回应了兄弟的言论,并承诺遵守最高法院命令,称这是政治迫害。他的参议员任期将于2027年1月31日结束,届时他将首次在24年里脱离民选公职。
In a video posted Monday, Flávio Bolsonaro addressed his brother’s comments and promised to comply with the Supreme Court order, citing political persecution. His Senate term ends on January 31, 2027, leaving him out of elected office for the first time in 24 years.
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗目前正因涉嫌腐败和洗钱罪接受该国最高法院调查。
Flávio Bolsonaro is currently under investigation by the country’s highest court for alleged acts of corruption and money laundering.
抵达美国后,他在周三发布了一份三页声明,尽管在周日的决选中输给卢拉,仍宣称自己是“巴西的领袖”。他重复了未经证实的选举舞弊指控,称离开该国并非本意,并誓言将从美国领导巴西反对派。
Upon arriving in the US, he released a three-page statement on Wednesday, declaring himself the “leader of Brazil,” despite losing Sunday’s runoff to Lula. He repeated unsubstantiated claims of electoral fraud, said it had not been his intention to leave the country and vowed to lead the Brazilian opposition from the United States.
“我想说清楚:我没有逃离巴西。我是离开前往巴西,”他写道,并将自己描述为政治迫害的受害者,感谢美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱在他离境计划上给予的支持。
“I want to make it clear: I did not flee Brazil. I left for Brazil,” he wrote, describing himself as a victim of political persecution and thanking US President Donald Trump and Argentine President Javier Milei for their support in his departure plans.
在美国,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗加入了博索纳罗运动中越来越多的知名人士行列,他们在面临巴西法律麻烦时搬到了那里。
In the United States, Flávio Bolsonaro joins a growing list of prominent figures in the Bolsonaro movement who have relocated there while facing legal trouble in Brazil.
前众议员爱德华多于2025年初移居美国,称自己是政治迫害的目标,并于7月获得永久居留权。此后,巴西最高法院以胁迫罪判处他四年零两个月监禁,认定他游说美国官员,向审理其父亲政变案的法官施压。莫赖斯本月下令逮捕他。
Eduardo, a former congressman, moved to the US in early 2025, saying he was the target of political persecution, and received permanent residency in July. Brazil’s Supreme Court has since sentenced him to four years and two months in prison for coercion, finding that he lobbied US officials to pressure the judges overseeing his father’s coup case. Moraes ordered his arrest this month.
前情报局长、众议员亚历山大·拉马格姆于2025年9月经圭亚那偷偷离开巴西,当时最高法院仍在审理他在推翻2022年大选阴谋中的角色,他在被定罪当天抵达美国。美国移民当局4月在佛罗里达州拘留了他,两天后将其释放。他的盟友称他已申请庇护。
Former intelligence chief and congressman Alexandre Ramagem slipped out of Brazil through Guyana in September 2025, while the Supreme Court was still trying him for his role in the plot to overturn the 2022 election, and arrived in the US the day he was convicted. US immigration authorities detained him in Florida in April and released him two days later. His allies say he has applied for asylum.
保守派评论员阿兰·多斯·桑托斯和保罗·菲盖雷多也在美国建立了平台,同时在巴西面临法律纠纷。
Conservative commentators Allan dos Santos and Paulo Figueiredo have also built platforms in the US while facing legal disputes in Brazil.
他们的案情各不相同,但放在一起看,表明美国已不仅是博索纳罗盟友的避难所,也是一个政治大本营,拥有意识形态盟友、接触有影响力保守派的渠道以及巴西支持者网络。
Their cases differ, but together they suggest that the US has become more than a refuge for Bolsonaro allies. It is also a political base, with ideological allies, access to influential conservatives and a network of Brazilian supporters.
“流亡不再意味着孤立,”研究美国“博索纳罗主义”的南里奥格兰德州天主教大学(PUCRS)政治学家特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜·施奈德·马尔克斯说。“借助社交媒体和媒体,它已成为一种国际化和跨国化投射的策略。”
“Exile is no longer isolation,” said Teresa Cristina Schneider Marques, a political scientist at PUCRS (Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul), who researches “Bolsonarismo” in the US. “With social media and the media, it has become a strategy for international and transnational projection.”
据巴西外交部估计,美国拥有最大的海外巴西社区,约有200万人。该社区历史上倾向保守。根据巴西选举数据,在2010年、2014年、2018年和2022年的决选中,美国的巴西选民均支持右翼候选人。今年他们支持弗拉维奥·博索纳罗,后者在周日的决选中获得了近63%的有效选票。
The US is home to the largest Brazilian community abroad, with about two million people, according to estimates from Brazil’s Foreign Ministry. That community has historically leaned conservative. Brazilian voters in the US backed the right-wing candidate in the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 runoffs, according to Brazilian electoral data. This year they backed Flávio Bolsonaro, who won nearly 63% of their valid votes in Sunday’s runoff.
联系不仅限于投票箱。在雅伊尔·博索纳罗——弗拉维奥的父亲——与特朗普任期重叠期间,巴西保守派精英与美国政治人物的联系加深,两人的运动都持民族主义和社会保守立场。
The ties go beyond the ballot box. Connections between Brazilian conservative elites and American political figures deepened during the overlapping presidencies of Jair Bolsonaro — Flávio’s father — and Trump, whose movements share nationalist and socially conservative positions.
雅伊尔·博索纳罗在2022年大选失利后,数千名支持者于2023年1月8日冲击巴西国会、最高法院和总统府,该事件被拿来与2021年1月6日冲击美国国会大厦的事件相提并论。随着法律压力增大,其运动中的几位知名人物前往美国。
After Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 election, thousands of his supporters stormed Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential palace on January 8, 2023, in an attack that drew comparisons to the January 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol. As legal pressure mounted, several prominent figures in his movement left for the United States.
马尔克斯说,从那时起,该运动一直在三条战线上努力“将事业本土化”,说服美国社会将其视为自己的事业。
Since then, Marques said, the movement has worked to “domesticate the cause” on three fronts, persuading American society to adopt it as its own.
第一条战线是华盛顿,盟友寻求影响美国对巴西政策。第二条战线是媒体:爱德华多·博索纳罗和菲盖雷多等人利用美国播客、保守派媒体和社交媒体,主张巴西司法机构在迫害右翼。第三条战线是巴西侨民。
The first is Washington, where allies have sought to influence US policy toward Brazil. The second is the media: Eduardo Bolsonaro and Figueiredo, among others, have used American podcasts, conservative outlets and social media to argue that Brazil’s judiciary is persecuting the right. The third is the Brazilian diaspora.
“侨民在传播叙事方面发挥着重要作用,也在翻译这些叙事方面发挥着重要作用,”马尔克斯说,“不仅是翻译成英语,还要调整政治信息,使其引起美国受众的共鸣。”佛罗里达州的“巴西保守派联盟”等团体和马萨诸塞州的“巴西裔美国人保守派联盟”等团体聚集了支持者、巴西政客和移民社区,并能充当与美国保守派圈子的中介。
“The diaspora plays an important role in spreading narratives, but also in translating them,” Marques said, “not just in English, but also adapting political messages so they resonate with American audiences.”Groups such as in Florida and the in Massachusetts bring together supporters, Brazilian politicians and the immigrant community, and can act as intermediaries with American conservative circles.
其结果是一种分工:知名人物获得接触机构和有影响力盟友的机会,而普通支持者则在他们周围的美国人和巴西人中传播信息。
The result is a division of labor: prominent figures gain access to institutions and influential allies, while ordinary supporters spread the message among the Americans and Brazilians around them.
最终目的是争取美国的支持,并利用这种支持向巴西机构施压,学者们称之为“回旋镖效应” —— 即政治运动寻求国际盟友来影响国内决策。
The ultimate aim is to win American support and use it to pressure Brazilian institutions, a tactic scholars call the “boomerang effect” — in which political movements turn to international allies to influence decisions at home.
特朗普多次批评巴西司法部门对待雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的方式,后者因政变阴谋被判处27年多监禁。这种支持已产生具体后果。去年,特朗普以雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗遭起诉为由,对巴西产品征收高达50%的关税,其政府还制裁了巴西司法当局。
Trump has repeatedly criticized Brazil’s judiciary over its treatment of Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to more than 27 years in prison for the coup plot. That support has had concrete consequences. Last year, Trump imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Brazilian products, explicitly citing Jair Bolsonaro’s prosecution, and his administration sanctioned Brazilian judicial authorities.
最近,路透社在周日决选前发布的一项调查描述了两名国务院高级官员帮助博尔索纳罗家族重掌大权的努力,包括旨在向卢拉政府施压的措施。
More recently, a Reuters investigation published ahead of Sunday’s runoff election, described efforts by two senior State Department officials to help the Bolsonaro family return to power, including measures intended to pressure Lula’s government.
特朗普在未提供舞弊证据的情况下质疑巴西大选的合法性,指出最高法院临时决定将投票时间延长两小时至晚上7点,理由是有交通问题报告。周二在得克萨斯州的一次竞选集会上,特朗普还将巴西大选与他长期以来指责民主党选举舞弊的说法相提并论。
Trump has questioned the legitimacy of Brazil’s election, without providing evidence of fraud, pointing to a last-minute Supreme Court decision to extend voting by two hours, until 7 p.m., following reports of transportation problems. At a campaign rally in Texas on Tuesday, Trump also compared Brazil’s election to his longstanding allegations of electoral cheating by Democrats.
特朗普周三证实,美国允许弗拉维奥·博索纳罗入境。“嗯,我不会对此发表评论,但我知道我们给了他通行许可让他入境,所以我们拭目以待,”特朗普在前往俄亥俄州途中对记者说。
Trump confirmed Wednesday that the US allowed Flávio Bolsonaro to enter the country. “Well, I’m not going to make a comment about that, but I know that we gave him a pass to come into the country, so we’ll see,” Trump told reporters before departing for Ohio.
一名特朗普顾问周二告诉CNN,总统已批准允许弗拉维奥·博索纳罗进入美国,美国官员证实政府将向这位参议员及其家人发放签证。
A Trump adviser had told CNN Tuesday that the president had approved allowing Flávio Bolsonaro into the United States, and US officials confirmed that the administration would issue visas to the senator and his family.
目前不清楚他们获得了何种签证,也不清楚弗拉维奥·博索纳罗是否会寻求庇护。入境许可并不意味着某人符合庇护资格,也不意味着可免于引渡。
It is unclear what visas they received or whether Flávio Bolsonaro will seek asylum. Permission to enter does not mean someone qualifies for asylum or is shielded from extradition.
马尔克斯认为,对特朗普而言,欢迎博索纳罗盟友具有政治价值:他们关于遭受迫害的说法符合全球右翼共享的一种叙事,即将左翼政府描绘为威权主义。她指出,给予庇护隐含着指控另一个国家实施迫害。
Marques argued that, for Trump, welcoming Bolsonaro allies has political value: their claims of persecution fit a narrative, shared across the global right, that portrays leftist governments as authoritarian. Granting asylum implicitly accuses another country of persecution, she noted.
但马克斯表示,这种叙事用在巴西身上比用在委内瑞拉或古巴身上更难推销。“卢拉最终成了全球右翼的眼中钉,”她说。“卢拉在国外受到尊重,而且他在2018年入狱时服从了法院的判决,这让他很难被塑造成威权主义者。”
But Marques said that narrative is harder to sell about Brazil than about Venezuela or Cuba. “Lula ends up being a stone in the shoe of the global right,” she said. “Lula is respected abroad and submitted to the courts when he was jailed in 2018, which makes him hard to cast as an authoritarian.”
他的连任也鼓舞了国外的左翼领导人,他们将他东山再起的胜利视为一系列右翼选举胜利之后可能的转折点。例如,西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯在西班牙11月29日大选前将卢拉的胜利誉为一种激励,并宣称:“在巴西发生的事情将在西班牙发生。全球进步主义的回归才刚刚开始。”
His reelection has also energized left-wing leaders abroad, who see his comeback victory as a possible turning point after a series of right-wing electoral gains. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, for instance, celebrated Lula’s win as an inspiration ahead of Spain’s November 29 election, declaring: “What happened in Brazil will happen in Spain. The comeback of global progressivism has just begun.”
马克斯认为,如今美国的欢迎已不如从前那样有分量。“奥巴马政府接待一个来自巴西的受迫害者是一回事,唐纳德·特朗普政府则是另一回事。”这种保护也未必是永久的;之后的美国政府对这件事的看法可能与特朗普不同。
Marques suggested that a current US welcome carries less weight than it once did. “It would be one thing for the Obama administration to receive someone from Brazil as persecuted. It’s another for the Donald Trump administration.”Nor is that protection necessarily permanent; a successive US administration might take a different view of the matter than Trump does.
弗拉维奥在周日的第二轮投票中获得近6000万票,这表明右翼势力依然强大,而他的突然离境让本党措手不及。
Flávio received nearly 60 million votes in Sunday’s runoff, a sign of the right’s continued strength, and his sudden departure caught his own party off guard.
协调弗拉维奥·博索纳罗竞选活动的参议员罗热里奥·马里尼奥周二表示,党内领导人并未被告知他的出行计划。
Rogério Marinho, the senator who coordinated Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, said Tuesday that party leaders had not been told of his travel plans.
随着雅伊尔·博索纳罗在软禁中服刑,而弗拉维奥和爱德华多身在国外,一些右翼人士已在寻找替代人选。
With Jair Bolsonaro serving his sentence under house arrest and Flávio and Eduardo abroad, some on the right are already looking to alternatives.
“我认为这是一个有些冒险的举动,尤其是弗拉维奥的做法,”马克斯说。她认为流亡是一种蓄意的政治策略,但与爱德华多不同——爱德华多将自己的出走呈现为一种政治选择——弗拉维奥·博索纳罗是在法院下达限制其出行的命令后立即离开的,这让人认为他是为逃避起诉而逃亡。“这种做法提高了该策略的代价,”她说。
“I think it’s a somewhat risky move, particularly the way Flávio did it,” Marques said. She sees exile as a deliberate political strategy, but unlike Eduardo, who presented his move as a political choice, Flávio Bolsonaro left immediately after a court order restricting his travel, feeding the perception that he fled to avoid prosecution. “The way it was done raised the costs of that strategy,” she said.
她说,这一事件可能为其他保守派领导人提供一个与博索纳罗家族保持距离的契机,尽管巴西右翼一再难以建立独立于雅伊尔·博索纳罗的身份认同。“现在最大的问题是,右翼会允许自己与博索纳罗主义捆绑多久。”她还认为,这一迫害叙事在巴西国内难以维持,因为该运动的盟友本月在国会赢得了很大一部分席位。
The episode could give other conservative leaders an opening to distance themselves from the family, she said, though Brazil’s right has repeatedly struggled to build an identity independent of Jair Bolsonaro. “The big question now is how long the right will allow itself to remain tied to Bolsonarismo.”She also finds the persecution narrative hard to sustain at home, since the movement’s allies won a large share of Congress this month.
弗拉维奥和爱德华多在美国可能增强该家族的国际影响力。但这也构成一个引人注目的悖论:该运动最显赫的三位人物正试图塑造巴西的政治未来,而其中两人若回国将面临法律风险,第三人雅伊尔·博索纳罗则仍处于软禁之中。
Having Flávio and Eduardo in the US could strengthen the family’s international influence. But it also presents a striking paradox: the movement’s three most prominent figures are trying to shape Brazil’s political future while two face legal risks if they return to the country, and the third, Jair Bolsonaro, remains under house arrest.
马克斯预计这场争斗将在国际舞台上展开。她说,巴西可能会寻求引渡弗拉维奥·博索纳罗,从而引发一场旷日持久的争端,争论他是逃犯还是异见者,类似朱利安·阿桑奇或爱德华·斯诺登的案件。
Marques expects the fight to play out on the international stage. Brazil could seek Flávio Bolsonaro’s extradition, she said, setting up a prolonged dispute over whether he is a fugitive or a dissident, along the lines of the Julian Assange or Edward Snowden cases.
“正如博索纳罗主义试图对右翼制造这种回旋镖效应一样,左翼也会如法炮制,”她说。“现在的问题是,它会以哪种方式回弹。”
“Just as Bolsonarismo is trying to make this boomerang effect work with the right, the left will do the same,” she said. “Now the question is which way it will come back.”