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土耳其与利比亚的突破能否重塑东地中海外交?Can Turkiye’s Libya breakthrough reshape Eastern Mediterranean diplomacy?

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2019年8月6日,土耳其钻探船“亚武兹”号在塞浦路斯附近的地中海水域,由土耳其海军“盖姆利克”号护卫舰(F-492)护航。[资料图:穆拉德·塞泽尔/路透社]Turkish drilling vessel Yavuz is escorted by Turkish Navy frigate TCG Gemlik (F-492) in the eastern Mediterranean Sea off Cyprus, August 6, 2019. [File: Murad Sezer/Reuters]

伊斯坦布尔,土耳其——曾经的对手土耳其与利比亚东部领导层,如今正在建立更紧密的政治和军事关系。安卡拉在过去几年里也修复了与埃及的关系,此前双方曾处于敌对状态,但一场海洋争端正在考验这些和解能走多远。

Istanbul, Turkiye – Once adversaries, Turkiye and the leadership of eastern Libya are now building closer political and military ties. Ankara has also repaired relations with Egypt in the past few years after previous hostility, but a maritime dispute is testing how far those reconciliations can go.

周三,土耳其国防部重申提议与开罗签署海洋边界协议,主张埃及与土耳其签署协议后可获得超过1.5万平方公里(5790平方英里)的海洋管辖权——这一数字为安卡拉的估算——相比之下,埃及若与希腊进一步达成协议所获将更少,开罗曾于2020年与雅典签署了一项部分海洋协议。

On Wednesday, Turkiye’s Ministry of National Defence renewed its offer to sign a maritime boundary agreement with Cairo, arguing that Egypt could gain more than 15,000sq km (5,790sq miles) of maritime jurisdiction – a figure that is Ankara’s estimate – compared with a potential further agreement with Greece, with which Cairo signed a partial maritime deal in 2020.

这一提议是在利比亚东部托布鲁克议会推翻多年反对立场、批准了其对手——位于利比亚首都的黎波里的国际公认政府——与土耳其于2019年签署的海洋协议八天后提出的。

The offer came eight days after Libya’s eastern-based parliament in Tobruk reversed years of opposition and approved a maritime agreement signed between its rival, the internationally recognised government based in the Libyan capital, Tripoli, and Turkiye in 2019.

该协议划定了土耳其和利比亚在地中海主张的海洋管辖区域,但希腊、塞浦路斯和埃及认为这侵犯了它们的主权权利,而土耳其坚持认为该协议符合国际法。

The agreement delineates maritime jurisdiction areas claimed by Turkiye and Libya in the Mediterranean, but Greece, Cyprus and Egypt argued that it infringes on their sovereign rights while Turkiye maintains that it complies with international law.

一位土耳其高级官员告诉半岛电视台,利比亚东部领导层已认识到安卡拉的意图。“土耳其不是为了利用利比亚谋取私利而存在的,”该官员表示。

A senior Turkish official told Al Jazeera that eastern Libya’s leaders had come to recognise Ankara’s intentions. “Turkiye is not there to use Libya for its own purposes,” the official said.

“从一开始,我们就支持‘一个利比亚’的政策,”该官员补充道,强调该国的稳定和资源应惠及所有利比亚人。

“From the very beginning, we have supported a policy of one Libya,” the official added, stressing that the country’s stability and resources should benefit all Libyans.

土耳其曾帮助击退了效忠于叛军指挥官哈夫塔尔的部队于2019年至2020年发动的针对的黎波里的进攻,哈夫塔尔是东部政府武装力量的领导人。此后,安卡拉在保持与的黎波里关系的同时,扩大了与东部阵营的关系。

Turkiye helped repel a 2019-2020 offensive on Tripoli by forces loyal to renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar, leader of the military forces of the eastern government. Ankara has since expanded its relations with the eastern camp while maintaining ties with Tripoli.

这位高级官员表示,驻扎在的黎波里的土耳其安全人员即使在对抗期间,也一直与利比亚东部武装保持联系。

The senior official said Turkish security personnel based in Tripoli had remained in contact with eastern Libyan forces even during the confrontation.

这位官员说:“我们的政策实际上没有任何变化。只有它产生的结果发生了变化。”外交接触伴随着军事和情报接触。

“There has actually been no change in our policy. Only the results it has produced have changed,” the official said. The diplomatic outreach has been accompanied by military and intelligence contacts.

5月,国防部长亚沙尔·居莱尔会见了哈利法·哈夫塔尔的儿子萨达姆·哈夫塔尔,以及设在的黎波里的政府的高级国防官员阿卜杜勒萨兰·祖比。

In May, Defence Minister Yasar Guler met Saddam Haftar, Khalifa Haftar’s son, and Abdulsalam al-Zoubi, a senior defence official in the Tripoli-based government.

土耳其情报主管易卜拉欣·卡林也在6月23日在班加西会见了萨达姆·哈夫塔尔。外长哈坎·菲丹于8月进行了跟进,同时会见了哈利法·哈夫塔尔和萨达姆·哈夫塔尔。

Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin also met Saddam Haftar in Benghazi on June 23. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan followed in August, meeting both Khalifa and Saddam Haftar.

利比亚东部议会领导层的变更也发生在海洋边界投票之前。10月6日,议员们罢免了议长阿吉拉·萨利赫,由曾任利比亚与土耳其议会友好委员会主席的萨利赫·阿卜杜勒纳比·奥贝迪取而代之。

A change in Libya’s eastern parliamentary leadership also preceded the maritime vote. On October 6, lawmakers replaced Aguila Saleh as parliament speaker with Al-Salhin Abdelnabi al-Obeidi, who previously chaired the Libyan-Turkish parliamentary friendship committee.

英国皇家国际事务研究所高级研究员加利普·达莱认为,安卡拉与其前对手的接触是一项战略收获。

Galip Dalay, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, sees Ankara’s engagement with its former adversaries as a strategic gain.

他告诉半岛电视台:“这不仅仅是务实或战术上的收获。这对土耳其来说是一项战略收获。”

“This is not merely a pragmatic or tactical gain. It is a strategic gain for Turkiye,” he told Al Jazeera.

达莱认为,与两个利比亚阵营关系的密切,使得外界更难以建立排挤土耳其的地中海东部能源和安全安排。这种关系缓和也反映了哈夫塔尔阵营内部的政治算计。

Dalay argued that closer relations with both Libyan camps make it harder to establish Eastern Mediterranean energy and security arrangements that exclude Turkiye. The rapprochement also reflects political calculations within the Haftar camp.

欧洲对外关系委员会客座研究员塔里克·梅格里西认为,萨达姆·哈夫塔尔希望安卡拉的影响力能够增强他自己的政治前景,许多人认为他最终希望领导利比亚。

Tarek Megerisi, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, believes Saddam Haftar hopes Ankara’s influence could strengthen his own political prospects with many believing that he eventually wants to lead Libya.

这位土耳其高级官员表示,除了也造福利比亚的一般原则和合作之外,安卡拉没有对利比亚东部官员做出任何具体的政治承诺。

The senior Turkish official said Ankara had made no specific political commitments to eastern Libyan officials beyond general principles and cooperation that would also benefit Libya.

据利比亚媒体报道,两个利比亚阵营的代表周五在安卡拉举行会谈,讨论统一其军事结构。关于政治监督的分歧仍未解决,也没有宣布最终协议。

Representatives of both Libyan camps held talks in Ankara on Friday about unifying their military structures, according to Libyan media reports. Differences over political oversight remain unresolved, and no final agreement has been announced.

然而,萨迪克研究所所长阿纳斯·埃尔·戈马蒂警告称,利比亚敌对领导人之间的谅解未必能带来包容性的政治解决。

But Anas El Gomati, director of the Sadeq Institute, cautioned that an understanding between Libya’s rival leaders would not necessarily produce an inclusive political settlement.

他说:“两个阵营之间的精英交易可能会把他们之外的所有人都排除在外。”

“An elite bargain between two camps can leave out everyone beyond them,” he said.

利比亚东部议会的立场逆转也使埃及的处境变得复杂。开罗传统上支持东部领导层,但反对其现已背书的海上协议。

The Libyan eastern parliament’s reversal has also complicated Egypt’s position. Cairo has traditionally supported the eastern leadership but opposes the maritime agreement it has now endorsed.

10月22日,希腊外交部长乔治·杰拉佩特里蒂斯宣布,正与埃及就将其2020年部分海上划界协议向东延伸至塞浦路斯进行讨论。

On October 22, Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis announced discussions with Egypt on extending their partial 2020 maritime delimitation agreement eastwards towards Cyprus.

四天后,埃及与希腊、塞浦路斯、巴林、阿拉伯联合酋长国和欧盟一道,在联合国发表了一份声明,拒绝土耳其与利比亚的协议。然而,开罗和安卡拉一直在重建双边关系。

Four days later, Egypt joined Greece, Cyprus, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union in a statement at the United Nations rejecting the Turkiye-Libya accord. Yet Cairo and Ankara have continued rebuilding their relationship.

土耳其陆军司令梅廷·托凯尔将军于周一抵达埃及进行正式访问。土耳其国防部还宣布,将于11月4日至9在亚历山大举行联合海上军事演习。

Turkiye’s land forces commander, General Metin Tokel, arrived in Egypt on Monday for an official visit. The Turkish Defence Ministry has also announced a joint naval exercise in Alexandria from November 4 to 9.

这位土耳其高级官员对半岛电视台表示,安卡拉对在海上边界和能源问题上进行合作保持开放态度,但将捍卫其认为属于自己的权利。

The senior Turkish official told Al Jazeera that Ankara remained open to cooperation on maritime boundaries and energy but would defend what it considers its rights.

这位官员说:“正如其他国家表示它们不会放弃自己承认的权利一样,土耳其也是如此。”

“Just as other countries say they will not give up the rights they recognise as their own, the same applies to Turkiye,” the official said.

费丹已经承认了埃及的关切,并讨论了与意大利合作的可能性。然而,这位官员澄清说,土耳其、利比亚、意大利和埃及四国之间尚未建立正式的谈判机制。埃尔·戈马蒂认为,开罗对利比亚东部决策的影响力已经减弱。他说:“埃及仍然有影响力,但它不再具有一票否决权。”

Fidan has acknowledged Egypt’s concerns and discussed the possibility of cooperation with Italy. The official clarified, however, that no formal four-country negotiating mechanism between Turkiye, Libya, Italy and Egypt has been established. El Gomati believes Cairo’s ability to influence decisions in eastern Libya has diminished. “Egypt still has influence, but it no longer has a veto,” he said.

梅杰里西则认为,土耳其与埃及的关系已变得过于重要,不能因海上争端而牺牲。他认为双方存在妥协空间,可能涉及在埃及和利比亚都有利益的意大利能源公司埃尼。

Megerisi, meanwhile, argued that Turkiye’s relationship with Egypt has become too important to sacrifice over the maritime dispute. He sees room for accommodation, potentially involving Italy’s energy company Eni, which has interests in Egypt and Libya.

希腊坚持认为,该海上协议无视其岛屿(包括克里特岛)的权利。土耳其拒绝这些主张,辩称在划定海上边界和专属经济区时,岛屿不应自动获得与大陆海岸线同等的权重。

Greece maintains that the maritime agreement disregards the rights of its islands, including Crete. Turkiye rejects those claims, arguing that islands should not automatically receive the same weight as mainland coastlines when mapping out maritime boundaries and exclusive economic zones.

梅杰里西表示,利比亚东部议会的批准增强了该协议在国内的法律基础,但对解决东地中海国家之间更广泛的争端几乎没有帮助。“我认为双方都持最大化立场,”他说。

Megerisi said the eastern Libyan parliament’s approval strengthens the agreement’s domestic legal footing but does little to resolve the wider dispute between the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean. “I think both sides are maximalist,” he said.

议会投票赋予安卡拉更大的政治筹码,但并未解决相互竞争的海上主张,也未为近海能源勘探扫清道路。

The parliamentary vote gives Ankara greater political leverage, but it does not settle competing maritime claims or clear the way for offshore energy exploration.

安卡拉现在希望借助在利比亚的收获以及同埃及关系的改善,来加强其在东地中海的地位。其目标是发展新的伙伴关系和区域合作,而不是置身于主要由希腊、塞浦路斯和以色列主导的安排之外。但这将需要与那些继续质疑土耳其海上主张的国家找到共同点。

Ankara now wants to build on its gains in Libya and improving ties with Egypt to strengthen its position in the Eastern Mediterranean. Its aim is to develop new partnerships and regional cooperation rather than remain outside arrangements shaped largely by Greece, Cyprus and Israel. But that will require finding common ground with countries that continue to challenge Turkiye’s maritime claims.

这位土耳其高级官员表示,安卡拉与开罗关系的改善为直接讨论这些分歧打开了大门。

The senior Turkish official said Ankara’s improved relationship with Cairo had opened the door to discussing those differences directly.

“我们现在可以与埃及讨论任何问题,这个问题我们也会讨论,”该官员说。“我们不必寻求无关第三国的批准或同意。”

“We can now discuss every issue with Egypt, and we will discuss this one too,” the official said. “We do not have to seek the approval or consent of unrelated third countries.”

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