18个月来，贝尔格莱德市中心的先锋公园一直是一个政治热点。2025年初，抗议的学生占领了这里。随后，效忠该国领导人亚历山大·武契奇的部队用围栏将其封锁，并搭建了营地。10月25日，塞尔维亚大选当天，一群身穿黑衣的男子集结起来；他们似乎是亲政府的暴徒。但在武契奇出人意料地宣布自己败选后，这些人便消失了。到第二天，围栏已被拆除，帐篷被毁，市民们以这种方式象征性地收回了公园。
For 18 months Pioneers’ Park in central Belgrade has been a political hotspot. In early 2025 it was taken over by protesting students. Then forces loyal to Aleksandar Vucic, the country’s leader, fenced it off and set up an encampment. On October 25th, the day of Serbia’s general election, a posse of black-clad men assembled; they seemed to be pro-government thugs. But they vanished after Mr Vucic unexpectedly announced that he had lost. By the next day the fences were down and the tents destroyed, as citizens symbolically reclaimed the park.
收回该国其他机构将更加困难。武契奇和他的塞尔维亚进步党（SNS）执政14年，主导着法院、媒体和经济。他败选的幅度出人意料。此前的民调显示，SNS与反对派“学生名单”势均力敌，后者是一场基本上没有领导人的抗议运动。结果SNS仅获得39%的选票。学生们赢得了53%，在250个席位的议会中获得141个议席。他们将努力在这个被武契奇俘获的国家恢复法治。
Taking back the country’s other institutions will be harder. Mr Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) ruled for 14 years, dominating the courts, the media and the economy. The scale of his defeat was unexpected. Opinion polls had shown the SNS running neck-and-neck with the opposition Student List, a mostly leaderless protest movement. Instead the SNS took just 39%. The students won 53%, giving them 141 MPs in the 250-seat parliament. They will try to restore the rule of law to the state that Mr Vucic captured.
与今年4月被广泛的民众运动击败的匈牙利欧尔班·维克托一样，武契奇也是因民众对腐败的愤怒而下台。加入SNS已成为在与国家有关联的机构和大企业中职业晋升的必要条件，这种共产党式的做法导致了愤世嫉俗和怨恨情绪。2021年，为抗议一项拟建的锂矿，大规模示威活动开始。2024年，一座火车站顶棚坍塌，造成16人死亡，此事被归咎于不光彩的承包商；塞尔维亚人逐渐感到，政府腐败让任何人都没有安全感。
Like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, who was defeated by a broad popular movement in April, Mr Vucic was felled by outrage at corruption. Membership in the SNS had become a requirement for career advancement in state-linked institutions and big businesses, a communist-style practice that led to cynicism and resentment. Mass demonstrations began in 2021 in protest against a proposed lithium mine. In 2024 the collapse of a railway-station canopy that killed 16 people was blamed on shady contractors; Serbs came to feel that government corruption had left no one safe.
这激发了学生运动，该运动始于大学，在全国各地举行了大规模集会，然后在以院系为基础的“全体会议”上开会，选出参加选举的候选人。
That sparked the student movement, which started in universities, staged huge rallies throughout the country, and then met in faculty-based “plenums” to select candidates for the elections.
“学生名单”将如何执政，目前异常不明朗。其议员均无政治背景；他们是凭借专业能力被选出的公民社会成员。塞尔维亚人想知道，权力将掌握在新任部长手中，还是掌握在挑选他们的学生手中。可能出任总理的人选之一是德扬·索什基奇，他曾任塞尔维亚国家银行行长，现为“学生名单”议员。他表示，一旦就职，政府“将像其他任何政府一样运作”。议员们已签署该运动的宣言，保证学生将拥有“非常重大的影响力”。
How the Student List will govern is unusually unclear. None of its MPs has a political background; they are members of civil society selected for their expertise. Serbs wonder whether power will lie with the new ministers, or with the students who picked them. One possible prime minister is Dejan Soskic, a former head of Serbia’s national bank and now a Student List deputy. Once installed, he says, the government “will operate as any other”. The MPs have signed the movement’s manifesto, guaranteeing that the students will have “a very significant impact”.
然而，这份宣言充斥着“负责任地使用公共资金”之类的承诺，却缺乏细节。学生们的目标是吸引所有厌倦了塞尔维亚进步党的选民，不论其政治倾向如何。该运动囊括了从强硬民族主义者到随和自由派的各种人。最后一场竞选集会吸引了15万人参加，现场有戴头巾的波什尼亚克族穆斯林、绘有耶稣像的东正教旗帜，以及塞尔维亚网球冠军诺瓦克·德约科维奇的纸板人像。
That manifesto, though, is full of promises to “spend the public funding responsibly” but light on detail. The students aimed to attract every voter tired of the SNS, regardless of political leanings. The movement embraces everyone from hard-core nationalists to easy-going liberals. The final election rally, which drew 150,000 people, featured headscarf-wearing Bosniak Muslims, Orthodox flags portraying Jesus and cardboard cutouts of Novak Djokovic, the Serbian tennis champion.
从长远来看，该运动可能分裂为左、中、右三派。在外交政策上，其纲领与武契奇的主张似乎差别不大。它反对科索沃独立，并回避对俄罗斯实施制裁。索什基奇对于塞尔维亚是否会继续向乌克兰出售武器含糊其辞：学生们“不支持从灾难中获取经济利益的想法”。但如果塞尔维亚政府在法治方面取得进展，其加入欧盟的努力可能会受益。
In the long run the movement could break up into left, centre and right factions. On foreign policy, its programme suggests little difference from that of Mr Vucic. It opposes the independence of Kosovo and eschews sanctions on Russia. Mr Soskic is ambiguous about whether Serbia will continue to sell arms to Ukraine: the students “do not support the idea of having economic benefits from disasters”. But Serbia’s effort to join the European Union could benefit if its government makes progress on the rule of law.
武契奇辞去总统职务，因为他已不具备连任资格，目的是竞选总理。一些人曾担心他可能会诉诸舞弊或暴力，而不是放弃权力。舞弊确实存在，但不足以影响结果。武契奇下台后接任代理总统的塞尔维亚进步党成员安娜·布尔纳比奇表示，随着计票结果出炉、败局已定，“他说‘没有理由不宣布这个结果……我们输了，就这样’。”
Mr Vucic had resigned as president, for which he was ineligible to run again, in order to run for prime minister. Some had feared he might resort to fraud or violence rather than give up power. Fraud there was, but not enough to affect the outcome. Ana Brnabic, an SNS member who took over as acting president when Mr Vucic stepped down, says that as the results came in and it became clear there was no path to victory, “he said ‘There is no reason not to announce this…We lost, and that is it’.”
塞尔维亚进步党主要是一台庇护机器，分配职位、公共合同和资金。失去这些权力后，它作为反对党可能难以兴旺，甚至难以生存。清除其党羽的努力已经开始。本周，学生名单的支持者愤怒地当面质问一家亲武契奇报纸的老板，并要求公共广播机构的编辑辞职，因为该机构拒绝报道学生抗议。布尔纳比奇称这类要求是“革命恐怖”。
The SNS is primarily a patronage machine, handing out jobs, public contracts and money. Having lost that power, it may not prosper in opposition, or even survive. Efforts to purge its apparatchiks have begun. This week supporters of the Student List angrily confronted the owner of a pro-Vucic newspaper, and demanded the resignations of editors at the public broadcaster, which had refused to report on the student protests. Ms Brnabic calls such demands “revolutionary terror”.
她是一名公开的同性恋女性，有部分克罗地亚血统，她说自选举以来她收到了威胁信息，称她为“克罗地亚婊子”和“死女同性恋”。
An openly gay woman of partly Croatian descent, she says that since the election she has received threatening messages calling her a “Croatian whore” and a “dead lesbian”.
然而塞尔维亚进步党仍然拥有资源。它深深扎根于国家机构之中。据广泛报道，黑帮头目正与塞尔维亚安全部门和高级政客合作。学生名单以“塞尔维亚还是黑手党”为口号开展竞选，但打破国家与有组织犯罪之间的勾结是危险的。曾试图这样做的前总理佐兰·金吉奇为此于2003年遭暗杀。
Yet the SNS still has resources. It is deeply entrenched in the organs of the state. Mob bosses are widely reported to be collaborating with Serbia’s security services and with senior politicians. The Student List campaigned under the slogan “Serbia or the Mafia”, but breaking the nexus between the state and organised crime is dangerous. One former prime minister who tried it, Zoran Djindjic, was assassinated in 2003 for his pains.
武契奇的失败与欧尔班的失败有一点不同。匈牙利的反对派由彼得·马扎尔领导，他是一位富有魅力的社交媒体领军人物，对竞选活动有着不知疲倦的热情。塞尔维亚的反对派则松散而分散。这曾是一种优势，但在执政后可能变成劣势。武契奇曾预言学生运动将会瓦解，而他将在两年内重新掌权。也许吧。但他们已经向其他国家展示了一种击败强人的新方式。
In one way Mr Vucic’s defeat differs from Mr Orban’s. Hungary’s opposition was headed by Peter Magyar, a charismatic social-media front man with an indefatigable appetite for campaigning. Serbia’s is amorphous and decentralised. That has been a strength, but could become a weakness in office. Mr Vucic has predicted that the students will collapse, and that he will be back in power in two years. Perhaps. But they have shown other countries a new way to beat a strongman.