NEW YORK -- U.S. officials have completed investigations required to impose new overcapacity tariffs on China, Japan and over a dozen other economies, a key step toward reviving President Donald Trump's protectionist agenda.

But the administration has held off on taking action as the midterm elections draw near. Across the campaign trail, public anxiety over affordability has emerged as a central issue, making any decision that risks pushing up consumer prices politically sensitive.

U.S. trade investigators have largely finished probing 16 economies, including China and Japan, accused of overproducing goods ranging from solar modules to chemicals and automobiles, though the timeline for unveiling the new duties remains unclear, people close to the Office of the United States Trade Representative told Nikkei Asia.

China is set to face a 7.5% tariff over the excess capacity, while other economies are expected to absorb similar or lower rates, one of the people said.

The elusive timing in rolling out new tariffs highlights the bind the Trump administration faces ahead of the Nov. 3 vote. New levies could inflame voter concerns that his trade policies are pushing up household costs, while fresh duties on China could unsettle a fragile trade truce before two expected meetings between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping by year end.

"Frankly, I think the administration is having a hard time identifying the correct time to release this report, particularly given the upcoming midterm elections but also the upcoming Xi-Trump meetings," said Wendy Cutler, a senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Even though much of the inflationary pressure Americans are facing is due to higher energy costs caused by the Iran war, any announcement of tariffs could exacerbate voter dissatisfaction.

"If they raise tariffs again, it might feed into the narrative that Trump is just insensitive to the affordability crisis happening in the U.S. right now," said Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former economist in the Biden administration.

An October study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that every 1 percentage point increase in the average tariff rate raises consumer goods prices by roughly 0.25% within a year.

A broad majority of Americans believe that sweeping federal import duties have driven up living costs and damaged the domestic economy, according to a Chicago Council Survey released this month.

Roughly eight in 10 Americans say tariffs have negatively impacted cost of living. That issue stands as the single most critical factor for 37% of voters in the midterms, the survey found.

Public frustration is even more pronounced regarding trade policy toward Beijing. Around 66% of voters say tariffs on Chinese goods have harmed the U.S. economy and 70% believe they lowered the standard of living.

On the campaign trail, Trump leaned into his protectionist rhetoric, boasting that "tariff" is his fifth-favorite word. But acting on that rhetoric now risks tipping a fragile pause on a bruising trade war with China that expires in January.

The overcapacity tariff, which stems from Section 301 investigations, marks Trump's latest effort to resurrect his trade agenda that has hit roadblocks in the Supreme Court.

In July, the U.S. hit 59 countries along with the 27-member European Union with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 12.5% after a probe over "forced labor" just as the previous global tariff of 10% expired.

Taken together, tariffs imposed under excess capacity and forced labor are aimed at reconstructing the "reciprocal" tariffs announced in April 2025 that were ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in February, said Noah Daponte-Smith, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group.

"It is a matter of when, not if," he added, regarding the imposition of overcapacity tariffs.

Bloomberg reported in September that the USTR held off unveiling tariffs on China and other trading partners until after a summit between Xi and Trump in late September. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said this month that the measures could be unveiled within "weeks." The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment. China's Commerce Ministry said in August that the country "firmly opposes" such tariffs and will "reserve the right to take all necessary measures".

Instead of the universal 10% baseline tariffs also announced in April 2025, which were also struck down by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration could also be taking more time to tweak tariff rates for each country to avoid further legal challenges, according to the Asia Society's Cutler.

"Simply replicating the exact same tariff rates for every country that they had under the struck-down IEEPA tariffs would make them legally vulnerable, because it would look like the entire investigation was just a sham," she added, referring to the sweeping tariffs imposed under Trump's emergency powers. Uncertainty also looms over how differing rates will reshape supply chains across Asia.

While tariffs on China under Trump's first term initially drove companies to relocate production to Southeast Asia, rampant transshipment shows Chinese components still heavily underpin the region's robust exports to the U.S. A person close to USTR said Washington plans to slap a 7.5% overcapacity tariff on China, bringing its total tariff to around 20% which falls within the expected level when the U.S. and China struck a trade truce in South Korea last year.

Lach Huyen port in Vietnam.

Uncertainty also looms over how differing rates will reshape supply chains across Asia. That leaves greater uncertainty for other trading partners.

Close allies, including Japan, South Korea and the European Union, are expecting total U.S. tariffs capped at 15%, but Southeast Asian economies risk facing higher rates, a person familiar with the matter said. Such an imbalance is plausible because other nations lack Beijing's negotiating leverage, given China's near monopoly on rare-earth magnet supplies, according to the Peterson Institute's Bown.

"All of a sudden, all of those supply chains that were moving out of China might move back," Bown said, "because now the relative tariff could be lower on China than on alternative sources."

Some American small business owners say that further tariff whiplash will be hard to stomach. Sari Wiaz, owner of Baby Paper, a sensory toy brand based in Northbrook, Illinois, said she is still struggling to recover from the initial shock brought by Trump's trade policy last year.

While the rate has lowered to 10% after the Supreme Court ruling, she said she hasn't received any tariff refund, and had to turn down new businesses due to the largely empty warehouse. "I'm so exhausted and I've stopped following all of these" tariff updates, Wiaz told Nikkei Asia.

To survive, she now imports 30% to 40% fewer products from China compared with a year ago and has cut back on marketing and trade show trips.

Ongoing trade friction with Canada, another core market, led to a double whammy for her bottom line. "Our revenue is way down and profit margin is down.

You kinda question if you should keep going," she said.

Even if the Democrats took control of the House of Representatives after the midterm elections, she worries the Iran war will drag on and continue to weigh on consumer spending. "I wanted to be optimistic, but I just don't see any big relief," she added.