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美国中期选举:倒计时3天——提前投票激增之际最新民调显示了什么US midterms: 3 days to go – What latest polls say as early voting surges

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距离美国中期选举还有三天,随着数百万美国人提前投票,民主党人在全国民调中领先。

With three days to go before the US midterm elections, Democrats are leading national polls as millions of Americans cast their ballots early.

与此同时,随着两党在周二选举日前进行最后的冲刺,总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布他将继续在堪萨斯州和艾奥瓦州开展竞选活动。以下是你需要了解的内容:美国中期选举民调怎么说?

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has announced he will carry on with his campaigns in Kansas and Iowa as both parties make their final push ahead of Election Day on Tuesday. Here is what you need to know: What do the US midterm polls say?

根据“真实透明民调”(RealClearPolling)最新的全国国会选票平均数据,民主党人仍然领先共和党人8.2个百分点。民主党人的支持率为51.4%,领先于共和党人的43.2%。

According to RealClearPolling’s latest national congressional ballot average, Democrats still lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points. Democrats lead by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent.

《经济学人》与舆观调查公司(YouGov)于周四发布的一项独立调查显示,44%的登记选民预计民主党将在选举后控制众议院,而预计共和党将保持控制权的比例为31%。

A separate Economist/YouGov survey released on Thursday found that 44 percent of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House of Representatives after the election, compared with 31 percent who expect Republicans to retain control.

对参议院的预期则更为接近,39%的人预计会出现民主党多数派,36%的人预计会出现共和党多数派。

Expectations were much closer for the Senate, with 39 percent expecting a Democratic majority and 36 percent a Republican one.

弗吉尼亚大学政治中心“萨巴托的水晶球”(Sabato’s Crystal Ball)栏目执行主编凯尔·孔迪克(Kyle Kondik)对半岛电视台表示,全国民调中民主党人的领先地位表明两个议院的情况有所不同。

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Al Jazeera that the Democratic lead in national polling suggests a different picture for the two chambers.

孔迪克说:“众议院泛选票民调中民主党人的大幅领先表明,众议院几乎肯定会倒向民主党。”

“A big Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats,” Kondik said.

“然而,这并不意味着参议院会易手——它当然可能会易手,但其结果要悬念得多。”有多少美国人已经投票?

“However, that does not mean the Senate is going to flip – it certainly could, but it is much more up in the air.”How many Americans have already voted?

根据美联社于周五发布的一项分析,在距离选举日还有五天时,已有超过4300万美国人通过提前投票或寄回邮寄选票的方式完成了投票。

According to an Associated Press analysis released on Friday, more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots five days before Election Day.

这比2022年中期选举同期增加了近1000万,其中增幅最大的一些州出现在参议院选情竞争激烈的州。

That’s nearly 10 million more than at the same point before the 2022 midterms, with some of the biggest increases recorded in states having competitive Senate races.

在得克萨斯州,截至周三已有超过630万人提前投票,而2022年同期为420万,增幅达50%。

In Texas, more than 6.3 million people had voted early as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point in 2022, an increase of 50 percent.

半岛电视台记者菲尔·拉韦尔周五从休斯敦报道称,随着该州提前投票期接近尾声,选民们仍在继续前往投票站。

Al Jazeera’s Phil Lavelle reported from Houston on Friday that voters were continuing to arrive at polling stations as the state’s early voting period was drawing to a close.

据半岛电视台记者马修·托雷斯报道,在佐治亚州,截至周五上午,已有超过250万张选票投出,超过了2022年提前投票期间记录的230万张。

In Georgia, more than 2.5 million ballots had been cast by Friday morning, surpassing the 2.3 million recorded during the early voting period in 2022, according to Al Jazeera’s Matthew Torres.

托雷斯报道称,亚特兰大一个投票站外排起了长队,年轻选民的参与度也有所提高。

Torres reported long queues at an Atlanta polling station and more participation among young voters.

“我们大家真的都只是想要一个属于每个人的更美好的未来,尤其是像下一代这样的人,”一位年轻选民告诉半岛电视台。

“We all just really want a better future for everyone, especially like the next generation,” one young voter told Al Jazeera.

另一位年轻选民将社交媒体视为人们对选举兴趣增加的原因。“绝对是社交媒体。社交媒体和媒体把投票推到了聚光灯下,”这位选民说。民主党政治策略师塞琳达·莱克表示,许多选民都在寻求变革。

Another young voter pointed to social media as a reason for the increased interest in the election. “Definitely social media. Social media and the media has put voting in the limelight,” the voter said. Democratic political strategist Celinda Lake said many voters were looking for change.

“你会听到很多选民说,‘我要孤注一掷地寻求变革,但我希望你们能做点什么,’”她说。

“You got a lot of voters who say, ‘I’m going to do a Hail Mary for change, but I hope you do something,'” she said.

根据美联社的分析,与2022年同期相比,缅因州、密歇根州、北卡罗来纳州和堪萨斯州的提前投票率也增长了30%以上。

Early voting also increased by more than 30 percent compared with the same period in 2022 in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, according to the AP analysis.

然而,提前投票率的数据并未显示选民选择了哪些候选人,也没有显示最终结果会如何。过去24小时的竞选活动中发生了什么?

However, early turnout figures don’t show which candidates voters have chosen or what the final results will be. What’s happened on the campaign trail in the past 24 hours?

特朗普收回了取消堪萨斯州和艾奥瓦州两场周末集会的决定,白宫证实这两场活动将于周日照常举行。

Trump reversed his decision to cancel two weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa, with the White House confirming that both events would go ahead on Sunday.

这两场集会曾于周四被取消,当时白宫称特朗普将转而参加近20场电话竞选活动。但不到一天后,这位总统又将集会重新排入了日程。

The rallies had been cancelled on Thursday, with the White House saying Trump would instead take part in nearly 20 telephone campaign events. But less than a day later, the president put the rallies back in his schedule.

半岛电视台记者塔尼亚·努里报道称,特朗普的竞选团队将他的公开露面视为动员共和党选民的一种方式。

Al Jazeera’s Tanya Nouri reported that Trump’s campaign team sees his personal appearances as a way to mobilise Republican voters.

“他充满活力,准备在周日回去进行面对面的集会,”努里援引其竞选团队消息人士的话说。

“He is energised to go back and rally in person on Sunday,” Nouri said, quoting her campaign sources.

她还表示,特朗普的团队认为,他的公开露面能对共和党支持者起到激励作用,特别是在共和党人在参议院席位竞选中面临强劲反对的州。

She also said that Trump’s team believes his appearances have a stimulating effect on Republican supporters, especially in states where the Republicans are running for Senate seats against strong opposition.

特朗普周五还在佛罗里达州进行了竞选活动,该州的共和党人正在捍卫参议院和州长席位。

Trump also campaigned in Florida on Friday, where Republicans are defending Senate and gubernatorial seats.

“你们必须投票。过于自信时就会发生坏事,对吧?所以让我们假装他们落后一个百分点,”特朗普对集会人群说。

“You got to vote. Bad things happen when you get too confident, right? So let’s pretend they’re one point down,” Trump told the rally crowd.

与此同时,据半岛电视台记者拉韦尔(Lavelle)报道,在得克萨斯州,共和党参议院候选人肯·帕克斯顿(Ken Paxton)和民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科(James Talarico)正将最后的竞选精力集中在休斯敦。

Meanwhile, in Texas, Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico were focusing their final campaign efforts on Houston, according to Al Jazeera’s Lavelle.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在代托纳比奇海洋中心举行的中期选举竞选集会上作出反应 [埃文·武奇/路透社]US President Donald Trump reacts during a midterm campaign rally at Ocean Center in Daytona Beach [Evan Vucci/Reuters]

随着提前投票接近尾声,帕克斯顿取消了一场在埃尔帕索的活动,以便集中精力前往得州人口最多的县——哈里斯县。周五,前总统比尔·克林顿在密西西比州为民主党助选。他也敦促人们去投票。

Paxton cancelled an event in El Paso to concentrate on Harris County, Texas’s most populous county, as early voting drew to a close. On Friday, former President Bill Clinton campaigned for the Democratic Party in Mississippi. He also urged people to vote.

“我无法告诉你们,有多少我关心的人在密西西比州输掉了选举,就因为有些人根本没有去投票,”克林顿说。特朗普和民主党人这个周末将在哪里进行竞选活动?

“I can’t tell you how many people I care for that have lost in Mississippi because of those who did not vote at all,” Clinton said. Where will Trump and the Democrats campaign this weekend?

特朗普计划于周日分别在艾奥瓦州和堪萨斯州连续举行集会。在艾奥瓦州,他预计将为共和党参议院候选人阿什利·欣森(Ashley Hinson)站台,随后他将前往堪萨斯州,与参议员罗杰·马歇尔(Roger Marshall)共同参加竞选活动。

Trump is scheduled to hold back-to-back rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. In Iowa, he is expected to support Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, and later travel to Kansas, where he will campaign with Senator Roger Marshall.

近期民调显示,在传统上支持共和党的州,参议院竞选异常激烈。在堪萨斯州,马歇尔面临着民主党挑战者、大型教堂牧师亚当·汉密尔顿(Adam Hamilton)的强劲竞争。

Recent polls have shown competitive Senate races in traditionally Republican states. In Kansas, Marshall faces a tough race against his Democratic challenger, megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton.

艾默生学院(Emerson College)的一项民调显示,汉密尔顿以49%的支持率领先,而马歇尔的支持率为45%。民主党人也正在向选民作最后的拉票呼吁。肯塔基州州长安迪·贝希尔(Andy Beshear)将与俄亥俄州州长候选人艾米·阿克顿(Amy Acton)一同出席竞选活动。

An Emerson College poll suggests that Hamilton is leading with 49 percent support, while Marshall has 45 percent. Democrats are also making their final appeals to voters. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear will join Ohio governor candidate Amy Acton at a campaign event.

阿拉斯加州民主党参议院候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉(Mary Peltola)也预计将出席在阿拉斯加州伯特利举行的集会。

Democrat Senate nominee for Alaska Mary Peltola is also expected to attend a rally in Bethel, Alaska.

阿拉斯加州的参议院选战是七个关键的摇摆选区之一,这很可能决定共和党能否保持其在国会上院的多数地位。

Alaska’s Senate race is one of seven key toss-ups that will likely decide whether Republicans keep their majority in Congress’s upper chamber.

这场选战因涉及两名名叫丹·沙利文(Dan Sullivan)的候选人的纠纷而变得复杂。特朗普指责民主党人招募了一名与这位共和党参议员同名的独立候选人,旨在迷惑选民并分流对他的支持。

The race has been complicated by a dispute involving two candidates named Dan Sullivan. Trump has accused Democrats of recruiting an independent candidate with the same name as the Republican senator to confuse voters and draw support away from him.

司法部已就这起纠纷采取了法律行动,而佩尔托拉则否认参与了所谓的招募活动。

The Department of Justice has taken legal action over the dispute, while Peltola has denied involvement in the alleged recruitment effort.

另外,共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯(Mike Rogers)预计也将在周末与众议院议长迈克·约翰逊(Mike Johnson)一同开展竞选活动。

Separately, Republican candidate Mike Rogers is also expected to campaign with House Speaker Mike Johnson over the weekend.

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