
在过去几十年中最高的选民投票率之一之后,总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的联盟以及自称的“犹太复国主义”反对派联盟均未能在10月27日的选举中获得议会多数所需的61个席位。
After one of the highest voter turnouts in decades, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition nor the self-styled Zionist opposition alliance secured the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority in the October 27 polls.
内塔尼亚胡阵营以53个席位位居第一,比主要反对派集团多出5个席位。阿拉伯政党席位激增至创纪录的19个,却被边缘化为仅能旁观联盟谈判。从远处看,这一结果可能令人震惊。
Netanyahu’s camp came first, with 53 seats, five more than the main opposition bloc. The Arab parties surged to a record 19 seats but have been relegated to merely observing coalition negotiations. Viewed from a distance, the results could appear startling.
内塔尼亚胡政府2022年上任伊始推行的司法改革,引发了以色列历史上规模最大的街头抗议,而总理本人至今仍陷入2019年开始的腐败审判。尽管面临巨大的公众压力,但关于2023年10月7日哈马斯领导的袭击前所谓的失职——该袭击引发了以色列在加沙地带对巴勒斯坦人的种族灭绝战争——的追责仍未进行。此外,这场种族灭绝导致国际孤立加剧,同时也为在整个地区对多国发动袭击提供了借口——最近一次是2月在美国协助下对伊朗的袭击,至今仍在搅动全球能源市场。
The judicial reforms ushered in at the start of Netanyahu’s government term in 2022 provoked the largest street protests in Israel’s history, while the prime minister himself is still embroiled in a corruption trial dating back to 2019. Alleged failures ahead of the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, that triggered Israel’s genocidal war against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have still to be reckoned with, despite overwhelming public pressure to do so. Moreover, the genocide has led to growing international isolation, while also providing the pretext for multiple attacks on countries across the region – the latest of which, undertaken with the United States on Iran in February, continues to roil energy markets around the world.
尽管如此,周二仍有约238万以色列人前往投票站支持由内塔尼亚胡利库德集团领导的联盟,而约221万人将选票投给了反对派联盟。
Nevertheless, roughly 2.38 million Israelis on Tuesday made the journey to the polls to back Netanyahu’s coalition, led by his Likud party, while some 2.21 million cast their ballots for the opposition alliance.
在这两者之间,几乎没有空间去审视以色列在加沙被指控犯下的多项战争罪行——以色列袭击已造成74500多人死亡,并使该地大部分化为废墟,或政府在被占约旦河西岸暴力和屠杀激增中的共谋责任——联合国调查委员会周一表示,以色列在那里犯下了危害人类罪,包括灭绝、酷刑和强奸。
Between the two, little space was given to examine the multiple war crimes Israel stands accused of having carried out in Gaza, where Israeli attacks have killed more than 74,500 people and left much of it in ruins, or government complicity in the surging violence and pogroms in the occupied West Bank, where a United Nations commission of inquiry said on Monday that Israel had been committing crimes against humanity, including extermination, torture and rape.
加沙未成选举议题 分析人士指出,加沙和约旦河西岸并未成为以色列人周二投票时的决定性因素,主要是因为这两个地区已成为两大政治联盟之间广泛共识的领域。
Gaza did not make the ballot Analysts said the fact that neither Gaza nor the West Bank were a deciding factor in how Israelis voted on Tuesday was largely because they already represented an area of broad agreement across both alliances.
相反,此次选举主要围绕内部议题展开:以色列法院的权力、极端正统派少数群体成员是否应免除兵役,以及政府在2023年10月袭击预警失误中是否应承担责任并接受调查。
Instead, the election was fought on largely internal issues: the power of Israel’s courts, whether members of the ultra-Orthodox minority should be exempted from military service, and whether the government’s alleged culpability in missing the warnings of the October 2023 attack should be examined.
以色列著名社会学家耶胡达·申哈夫-沙赫拉巴尼表示,这些议题呈现在以色列公众面前的方式,大体上与推行这些政策的政客们所用的路径相似。
Leading Israeli sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani said the issues were pitched to the Israeli public along broadly similar lines to those used by the politicians enacting the policies.
“我不认为问题仅仅在于民众缺乏信息或不关心政治,”他对半岛电视台表示。
“I don’t think the problem is simply that people are uninformed or disengaged,” he told Al Jazeera.
“许多以色列人知道加沙已遭受毁灭性打击,尽管他们接触到的只是对这种毁灭极具选择性的呈现。但知道某事,与认识到其道德和政治含义,是两码事,”申哈夫-沙赫拉巴尼补充道,这为许多以色列人面对巴勒斯坦人在加沙广为人知的苦难却缺乏同理心提供了一种解释。
“Many Israelis know that Gaza has been devastated, even though they are exposed to a very selective representation of that devastation. But knowing something and recognising its moral and political implications are different things,” Shenhav-Shahrabani added, providing one explanation for the absence of empathy displayed by many Israelis in the face of the widely reported suffering of Palestinians in Gaza.
“热爱家庭、关心朋友、自认为是正派人的普通民众,可以参与或默许一个给他人带来巨大苦难的政治秩序,”他说。
“Ordinary people, who love their families, care for their friends, and consider themselves decent human beings, can participate in or acquiesce to a political order that produces immense suffering for others,” he said.
对申哈夫-沙赫拉巴尼而言,一直在起作用的是“一种强有力的否认机制”。“不一定是对事实的否认,而是对其意义的否认,”他说。
For Shenhav-Shahrabani, there has been “a powerful mechanism of denial” at work. “Not necessarily denial of the facts, but denial of their meaning,” he said.
一名巴勒斯坦男子于2026年10月30日在加沙地带北部贾巴利亚以西,走过前一晚以色列空袭附近建筑后受损的简易棚户区 [法新社] 安全议程上议 对于内塔尼亚胡的支持者而言,这种否认可以追溯到更私人的东西。
A Palestinian man walks through damaged makeshift shelters after an Israeli strike hit a nearby building the previous night, west of Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip, on October 30, 2026 [AFP] Security on the agenda For Netanyahu’s supporters, however, this denial could be traced to something more personal.

“利库德党是一个部落,甚至可以说是一个邪教,对他们而言,领袖永远是对的,”以色列分析家阿伦·布雷格曼在谈及这位总理的支持基础时说,该基础已累计支撑其执政19年——约占以色列整体存在时间的四分之一。
“The Likud is a tribe, or perhaps a cult and, as far as they are concerned, Dear Leader is always right,” Israeli analyst Ahron Bregman said of the prime minister’s base, which has sustained his rule for a cumulative 19 years– roughly a quarter of Israel’s entire existence.
“对他们来说,敌人紧随阿拉伯人之后的是左派,无论内塔尼亚胡有什么缺点,他们都会投票支持他,”布雷格曼补充道,他是伦敦国王学院的高级教学研究员。
“For them, the enemy, straight after the Arabs, is the left, and they would vote for Netanyahu regardless of his faults,” added Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King’s College London.
对这部分选民而言,投票更多不是对政府行为的评判,而是对政治合法性竞争的选择——正如以色列学者罗伊·祖尔所言,这是一场关于“民主的心灵与灵魂”以及犹太人和以色列身份未来的争夺。
For much of this electorate, the vote was less a judgement on the government’s conduct than a choice between competing claims to political legitimacy – or as Israeli academic Roi Zur put it, a contest over “the heart and soul of democracy” and the future of Jewish and Israeli identity.
“我认为,促使内塔尼亚胡支持者投票的最重要因素,是他们对或相信另一联盟在安全方面会更弱的认识,”专研选民行为、任教于埃塞克斯大学的祖尔说。
“The most important thing, I think, for turnout among Netanyahu’s supporters is the understanding, or the belief, that the alternative coalition would be weaker on security,” said Zur, an expert on voter behaviour who teaches at Essex University.
他继续指出,内塔尼亚胡特别擅长制造“一场恐惧宣传”,让人们相信只有他能够应对当前局面,只有他是唯一足够强大的总理。
What Netanyahu had been particularly successful in doing, he continued, was creating “this campaign of fear and the belief that he is the only one who can deal with this situation, that he is the only strong enough prime minister”.
“内塔尼亚胡是唯一且最强的领袖,能够在近期以及十月七日战争后的时代带领以色列前行。”据申哈夫-沙拉巴尼称,战争与占领并非选票上可以选择的议题。
“The idea that Netanyahu is the only and the strongest leader that can lead Israel through these recent times and the post-October 7 war.”War and occupation, according to Shenhav-Shahrabani, were not choices to be made on the ballot paper.
相反,它们已成为数十年来以色列人审视“安全、公民身份以及民主本质”的棱镜。
Instead, they had become the prism through which, over decades, Israelis had come to view “security, citizenship, and the very meaning of democracy”.
“因此,尽管更换内塔尼亚胡可能很重要,但仅凭此并不能根本解决更深层的问题。”
“That is why replacing Netanyahu, important as it may be, would not by itself resolve the deeper problem.”
以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡于10月28日向支持者发表讲话【法新社】
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses supporters on October 28 [AFP]
