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纽约邮报

消息人士:若伊朗战争爆发,以色列或在谋划又一次“严峻寻呼机行动”式袭击If Iran war erupts, Israel may be plotting another ‘Operation Grim Beeper’ style attack: sources

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伊朗战争可能在中期选举后全面升级,因为第三艘航空母舰正驶往该地区,而特朗普总统警告称可能会爆发全面冲突。

The Iran War may kick into high gear after the midterms, as a third aircraft carrier is headed to the region and President Trump has warned all hell could break loose.

尼米兹级航空母舰“西奥多·罗斯福”号正在前往中东——将与已在该地区的另外两个航母打击群——“乔治·华盛顿”号和“乔治·W·布什”号——会合。

The USS Theodore Roosevelt, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, was making its way to the Middle East – joining two other carrier task forces in the region, the USS George Washington and the USS George W. Bush.

特朗普周五对堪萨斯城电台KCMO表示,这场战争“很快就会结束”——但未具体说明方式。

President Trump told Kansas City radio station KCMO Friday that the war is “going to get wrapped up soon” – without specifying how.

伊朗战争批评者、参议员克里斯·墨菲(民主党-康涅狄格州)在10月29日中东研究所的一次活动中猛烈抨击了这一想法,他表示曾接受过关于如果美国重启行动,战争计划会是什么样子的相当详细的简报:“他们的计划疯狂至极。这将导致毁灭性的升级,并极可能摧毁我们对法治的承诺。”他未提供具体细节,但提到了可能成为目标的民用基础设施。“他们制定的计划在我看来将导致这场战争的延长和升级,在我看来这将对我们的安全利益造成毁灭性打击,”他说。

Iran war critic Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who said he had been briefed on fairly detailed planning on what the war plan would be if the US restarted operations, ripped the idea during an Oct. 29 appearance at the Middle East Institute: “Their plan is insane. It will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.”He didn’t provide specifics, but mentioned civilian infrastructure that may get targeted. “The plan that they have developed will lead in my view to a prolongment and an escalation of this war that in my view will be devastating for our security interests,” he said.

另一位议员、参议员罗杰·马歇尔(共和党-堪萨斯州)最近曾与特朗普总统共事,他预测战争很快就会结束。“我猜大概在这次选举后一到三天,我可不想离伊朗太近,”他在周四的一次竞技集会上表示。

Another lawmaker, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who has spent time with President Trump recently, predicted that the war would be over soon. “I’m going to guess about a day or three after this election, I would not want to be anywhere close to Iran,” he said at a campaign stop Thursday.

如果战争在中期选举后爆发,统治伊朗的四名军事强硬派可能很快就会发现自己背上有了靶子、口袋里装着炸药。

If war does erupt after the midterms, four military hard-liners ruling Iran could soon find targets on their backs — and explosives in their pockets.

前摩萨德全球行动副主管奥德德·艾拉姆告诉《纽约邮报》,一场旨在铲除军政府领导层的、惊心动魄的“寻呼机行动”式袭击,依然完全摆在桌面上。

Former Mossad Deputy Head of Global Operations Oded Ailam told The Post that a dramatic, “Operation Grim Beeper”-style attack to wipe out the junta’s leadership remains fully on the table.

“这是以色列战略的看家本领,即出其不意的反转、意想不到的举动,我绝对确信以色列手中握有将会打出的底牌,”艾拉姆告诉《纽约邮报》。

“This is the bread and butter of Israeli strategy, is surprise twists and turns, unexpected moves and I’m absolutely certain that Israel has cards in the sleeve that will be used,” Ailam told The Post.

2024年9月17日至18日,以色列在黎巴嫩和叙利亚境内引爆了数千个属于真主党恐怖分子的装有炸药的传呼机和对讲机,这是一场秘密行动,造成数十人死亡、数千人受伤,并严重削弱了该恐怖组织。

On Sept. 17-18, 2024, Israel detonated thousands of explosive-rigged pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to Hezbollah terrorists across Lebanon and Syria in a covert operation that killed dozens, injured thousands and severely weakened the terror group.

据艾拉姆称,伊朗的政治领导层——由总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬、外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐和议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫组成,连同新上任的阿亚图拉·穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊——不过是傀儡,该国实际上由一个军事“四巨头”统治。

Iran’s political leadership, comprised of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf, along with newly-installed Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei are mere figureheads, and the country is actually ruled by a military quadrumvirate, according to Ailam.

艾拉姆说:“总统和外交部长无法做决定。[军政府]躲在穆杰塔巴身后,但他并不掌权;他是个彻头彻尾的傀儡。”

“The president and foreign minister can’t make decisions. [The military junta] hides behind Mojtaba, but he’s not in charge; he’s a complete puppet,” Ailam said.

这四位领导人分别是:伊斯兰革命卫队总司令艾哈迈德·瓦希迪、巴西吉民兵部队指挥官侯赛因·塔伊卜、伊朗武装部队总参谋长阿里·阿卜杜拉希,以及最高国家安全委员会秘书穆赫辛·雷扎伊。

The four leaders are Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi, Basij forces commander Hossein Taeb, Iranian Army Chief of Staff Ali Abdollahi, and Secretary of Supreme National Security Mohsen Rezaei.

强硬派打击名单 美军和以色列军队可能以这四位伊朗领导人为目标。

Hardliner hit list US and Israeli forces could target these four Iranian leaders.

伊斯兰革命卫队总司令艾哈迈德·瓦希迪,其部队对1月反政府示威中多达7.5万名抗议者的惨烈屠杀负责。瓦希迪因在全球恐怖主义中的角色及其追求核武器而受到美国和欧盟制裁。

Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ahmad Vahidi, whose troops are responsible for the horrendous massacre of as many as 75,000 protesters during anti-regime demonstrations in January. Vahidi is sanctioned by the US and EU for his role in global terrorism and for his pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

巴西吉民兵部队指挥官侯赛因·塔伊卜,其准军事组织同样对1月屠杀抗议者负责,由阿亚图拉·穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊任命,授权扩大巴西吉的情报收集能力并增加兵力,以进一步镇压异见。

Basij Forces Commander Hossein Taeb, whose paramilitary group was also responsible for slaughtering protesters in January, was appointed to by Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei with a mandate to expand the Basij’s intelligence-gathering abilities and increase its number of troops to further crackdown on dissent.

伊朗武装部队总参谋长阿里·阿卜杜拉希曾被美国财政部制裁,以好战著称,他曾称美国为“最大的撒旦”,并威胁称任何与美国结盟的海湾阿拉伯国家都将“陷入战火之中”。伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书穆赫辛·雷扎伊是伊斯兰共和国的创始军事领导人之一,因涉嫌在1994年布宜诺斯艾利斯犹太社区中心爆炸案中扮演的角色(该案造成85人死亡),被国际刑警组织发布红色通缉令。

Iranian Armed Forces Chief Ali Abdollahi, sanctioned by the US Treasury and known for his belligerence, he has called America “the big Satan” and threatened that any Gulf Arab country allying with the US would be “engulfed in the flames of war.”Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Mohsen Rezaei, a founding military leader of the Islamic Republic, has an Interpol Red Notice for his role in the 1994 Buenos Aires Jewish Community Center bombing that killed 85 people.

艾拉姆表示,这四位领导人预计一旦空袭重启将成为打击目标,很可能正在采取严密的预防措施保护自己免受美以空袭,而犹太国家多年来一直在谋划对伊朗发动突袭。

While the four leaders are expecting to be targeted should strikes resume and are likely taking intense precautions to protect themselves from US-Israeli airstrikes, the Jewish State has been plotting surprise attacks against Iran for years, Ailam said.

“以色列将利用其想象力、情报能力以及以色列人出奇制胜的本领,以你无法预料的方式扭转局势,”他说。

“Israel will use its imagination, its intelligence and the ability of the Israelis to surprise and turn the table in ways you can not anticipate,” he said.

瓦希迪、雷扎伊和塔伊布三人均对那场残酷屠杀负责,据称在1月的起义中,多达7.5万名伊朗抗议者被屠杀。消息人士称,伊朗常规军队未参与针对伊朗民众的袭击。

Vahidi, Rezaei and Taeb are all responsible for the brutal massacre that saw as many as 75,000 Iranian protesters slaughtered during uprisings in January. The conventional Iranian Army was not involved in attacks against Iranians, sources said.

艾拉姆表示,这四人长期以来挫败了政治领导层试图与美国达成协议的努力,他们相信关闭霍尔木兹海峡让伊朗占据上风,且特朗普很快就会在压力下屈服。

The four have long thwarted the political leadership’s attempts to strike a deal with the US, believing that closing the Strait of Hormuz gave Iran the upper hand and that Trump would soon buckle under pressure, Ailam said.

“2月,伊朗人违背了他们自己的协议。阿拉格奇措手不及——他不理解他们达成的协议被违背背后的逻辑,”艾拉姆说。

“In February, Iranians breached their own agreement. Araghchi was caught by surprise — he didn’t understand the logic in breaching the agreement they reached,” Ailam said.

据报道,伊斯兰革命卫队在2月宣布重新关闭霍尔木兹海峡,此前阿拉格奇曾宣布作为与美国达成协议的一部分将重新开放海峡,此举激怒了伊朗外长。

The IRGC reportedly rankled the Iranian foreign minister in February when they announced that they were re-closing the Strait of Hormuz after Araghchi announced it was reopening as part of a deal with the US.

即使在这军事集团内部,随着美国实施的经济制裁和军事封锁持续给政权造成经济重创,裂痕也开始显现。

Even among the military junta, cracks are emerging as economic sanctions and a military blockade imposed by the US continue to wreak economic havoc on the regime.

“他们自己内部都不在一个频道上,我们看到政权内部存在大量摩擦,有不同的做法,同意了又反悔,”艾拉姆说。

“They’re not on the same page themselves, we see a lot of friction within the regime, different approaches, agreeing then reneging,” Ailam said.

副总统万斯最近给雷扎伊发了一封信,试图重启美伊谈判,但政权迄今尚未回应。

Vice President Vance recently sent a letter to Rezaei in an attempt to restart negotiations between the US and Iran, but the regime has yet to respond.

美国退役将军杰克·基恩表示,美以打击应以领导层为目标,同时摧毁核项目、国内能源基础设施以及弹道导弹和无人机设施。

Retired US General Jack Keane said that US and Israeli strikes should target leadership, along with destroying the nuclear enterprise, domestic energy infrastructure and ballistic missile and drone facilities.

“停停启启的停火持续六个月期间,我们收集的情报现在非常可观,”基恩说。

“The intelligence we have now as a result of six months of collection during the on-again, off-again ceasefire is significant,” Keane said.

艾拉姆说,如果以色列能够实施战略突袭,消灭伊朗剩余的领导层,对政权心理造成的影响可能比地面入侵更具毁灭性。

If Israel is able to deliver on a strategic surprise that wipes out Iran’s remaining leadership, the psychological effect it could have on the regime could be even more devastating than a ground invasion, Ailam said.

“效果巨大,尤其是对敌方的心理。想象一下,袭击发生后,伊朗最高层在某个地堡里交谈,每个人都向左看向右看,心想身边那个家伙是间谍,”艾拉姆说。

“The effect is enormous, especially on the psychology of the enemy. Imagine after the attack there’s a conversation somewhere in a bunker with the top echelons of Iran and everybody’s looking to the left and to the right and thinking the guy next to him is a spy,” Ailam said.

任何美以打击都将遭到伊朗政权的猛烈报复,后者将为其生存而战。

Any US-Israeli strike will be met with a fierce retaliation from the Iranian regime, which would be fighting for its very survival.

“[政权的]利益在于生存;他们会战斗得更凶狠,”位于华盛顿特区的外交政策智库保卫民主基金会伊朗项目高级主任贝纳姆·本·塔莱布卢说。

“[The regime’s] interest is survival; they’ll fight harder,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington, D.C.-based foreign policy think tank.

他说,伊朗将寻求尽快制造尽可能多的痛苦,打击周边海湾阿拉伯国家的能源和民用基础设施——甚至可能打击以色列。

He said that Iran would seek to generate as much pain as quickly as possible by striking energy and civilian infrastructure in the surrounding Gulf Arab countries — and possibly Israel.

前以色列国防军少将雅各夫·阿米多尔说,对以色列的攻击将为犹太国家的大规模反击打开大门。

An attack on Israel would open the door to a massive response from the Jewish State, former IDF Major General Yaakov Amidror said.

阿米德罗尔说:“如果伊朗的报复是摧毁或试图摧毁海湾国家的能源设施,那将成为以色列摧毁伊朗全部能源基础设施的绝佳借口。”

“If the Iranian retaliation will be to destroy or try to destroy energy facilities in the Gulf countries, that would be a good excuse for Israel to destroy the whole energy infrastructure in Iran,” Amidror said.

他补充说:“这是无法在几年内重建的,这将使伊朗倒退50年。”

“This is something that cannot be rebuilt in a few years, this will send Iran back 50 years,” he added.

阿米德罗尔表示,如果战争重燃,对伊朗军事领导层实施“斩首打击”是可能的,但他强调,以色列的首要任务将是消除该政权的核能力和导弹能力。

Amidror said that a decapitation strike against Iran’s military leadership was possible if the war resumes, but emphasized that Israel’s top priority would be to neutralize the regime’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

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