加拿大央行称财政与货币政策并不冲突 加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆表示，总理马克·卡尼的财政计划目前并未增加央行控制通胀的难度。
Bank of Canada Says Fiscal and Monetary Policy Aren’t at Odds Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said Prime Minister Mark Carney’s fiscal plans aren’t yet making it harder for the central bank to control inflation.
马里奥·贝克·拉米雷斯、埃里克·赫茨伯格报道 周二在向议员发言时，麦克勒姆表示，他将在两种情况下对财政政策发表评论：如果政府财政变得不可持续并溢出至市场，或者财政与货币政策背道而驰，增加了将通胀降回央行2%目标的难度。
By Mario Baker Ramirez and Erik Hertzberg Speaking to lawmakers Tuesday, Macklem said he would comment on fiscal policy in two situations: if government finances became unsustainable and spilled over into markets, or if fiscal and monetary policy were working at cross purposes and making it harder to return inflation to the Bank’s 2% target.
“在目前的情况下，我认为这两个标准均未达到，”麦克勒姆在众议院财政委员会表示。
“In the current circumstances, I don’t think either of those criteria are met,” Macklem told the House of Commons finance committee.
麦克勒姆称，政府现有的支出计划并未实质性地增加通胀压力，他指出经济存在过剩产能，且政府重点在于投资支出而非运营支出。
Macklem said the government’s existing spending plans aren’t materially adding to inflation pressures, pointing to excess capacity in the economy and the government’s emphasis on investment rather than operating spending.
上周，央行将政策利率上调至2.5%，以防止较高油价更广泛地传导为通胀压力。
Last week, the central bank hiked the policy rate to 2.5% to keep higher oil prices from spreading more broadly into inflationary pressures.
此番表态之际，联邦政府正准备于周四公布预算案。卡尼已宣布所谓的“生产力超级扣除”，预计五年内成本达360亿加元，将扩大企业投资的即时税务抵扣。预算案的总体财政缺口预计约占经济规模的2%。
The comments come as the federal government prepares to unveil its budget on Thursday. Carney has already announced the so-called productivity mega deduction, which is expected to cost C$36 billion over five years and broaden immediate tax write-offs for business investment. The budget’s overall fiscal shortfall is expected to be about 2% of the size of the economy.
在提交委员会的备稿中，麦克勒姆表示，随着出口和投资增强，“在财政措施的支持下”，经济增长应在2027年回升。上周，他暗示央行对投资的预估“较为保守”，尽管这是其预测中相较于7月最大的上调幅度之一。在向议员发言时，麦克勒姆还强调了财政支出结构的重要性。
In prepared remarks to the committee, Macklem said growth should pick up in 2027 as exports and investment strengthen, “supported by fiscal measures.”Last week, he suggested the bank’s estimates for investment were “conservative,” though they were one of the largest upside revisions in its forecast relative to July. Speaking to lawmakers, Macklem also noted the importance of fiscal spending composition.
“他们是在把钱花在只能在短期内提振经济的事情上，还是在为未来投资、建设经济的增长能力？”他问道。
“Are they spending it on things that are just going to boost the economy in the short term, or are they investing for the future and building the capacity of the economy to grow?” he asked.
麦克勒姆此前曾批评省级和联邦政府过度侧重于刺激需求和消费，而较少关注扩大经济的生产能力。并非所有人都认为财政政策和货币政策正朝着同一方向发力。
Macklem has previously criticized provincial and federal governments for focusing too heavily on priming demand and consumption, and less on expanding the productive capacity of the economy. Not everyone agrees that fiscal and monetary policy are pulling in the same direction.
蒙特利尔银行首席经济学家道格·波特表示，联邦和省级政府提供的广泛财政支持，与加拿大央行上周决定加息的做法背道而驰。
Doug Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, said the broad fiscal support being provided by federal and provincial governments are at odds with the Bank of Canada’s decision to hike borrowing costs last week.
“财政政策旨在为经济度过这段充满贸易不确定性的艰难时期提供重要支撑，”波特说。
“Fiscal policy is geared to providing important support to the economy through this difficult period of trade uncertainty,” Porter said.
“我认为货币政策和财政政策正在相互抵消，”波特说，并补充称，如果加拿大和美国达成协议、减少贸易不确定性和关税，他的看法可能会改变。
“I believe that monetary and fiscal policy are working at cross purposes,” Porter said, adding that his view could change if Canada and the US reach an agreement that reduces trade uncertainty and tariffs.
上周的加息是三年多来的首次。麦克勒姆周二告诉委员会，可能还需要进一步加息，但表示在不确定性加大的情况下，决策者将谨慎行事。
The bank’s hike last week was the first in more than three years. Macklem told the committee Tuesday there could be a need to raise rates further, but said policymakers will proceed carefully amid elevated uncertainty.