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民主党如何将参议院翻转为蓝色:ABC新闻选民民调揭示其中缘由How Democrats flipped the Senate blue: The ABC News Voter Poll tells the story

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埃里克·李/路透社Eric Lee/Reuters

民主党人乘着对经济和唐纳德·特朗普总统的不满浪潮,再次夺回参议院控制权,在两年前根本难以想象的地方取得进展。

Democrats rode a wave of discontent -- both for the economy and President Donald Trump -- and gained control of the Senate once again, making gains in places that just two years ago would have been unthinkable.

堪萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州、爱荷华州只是共和党传统据点中的几个,在这些地方,挑战者民主党人不仅获胜,而且以显著优势获胜——关键人口群体和投票集团出现了显著转移。事情是这样发展的:根据美国广播公司(ABC News)选民民调,民主党人乔恩·奥索夫预计将在连任美国参议员的竞选中获胜。奥索夫曾在2021年的决选中以微弱优势赢得参议员席位,在今年的竞选中获得了更多佐治亚州选民的支持,赢得了全州约60%的选民支持。

Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa are just a few of the Republican strongholds where insurgent Democrats not only won but did so with notable margins - with notable shifts in key demographic groups and voting blocs. Here's how we got here: Democrat Jon Ossoff is projected to win reelection to the U.S. Senate, according to ABC News Voter Polls. Ossoff, who narrowly won his Senate seat in a runoff election in 2021, earned more support from Georgia voters in this year’s race, winning the support of around 6 in 10 voters across the state.

与民主党人拉斐尔·沃诺克2022年的胜利相比,奥索夫在白人选民中的得票优势提升了约10个百分点。

Ossoff was able to improve his vote margins among white voters by about 10 percentage points compared to Democrat Raphael Warnock’s victory in 2022.

根据美国广播公司选民民调,年轻选民帮助奥索夫在2026年佐治亚州参议院竞选中获胜。30岁以下选民对民主党人的支持优势从2022年的21个百分点扩大到现在的69个百分点。根据美国广播公司选民民调,45至64岁选民在2022年支持共和党候选人,优势为8个百分点,而今年他们以类似优势支持奥索夫。

Younger voters helped propel Ossoff to victory in the 2026 Georgia Senate race, according to ABC News Voter Polls. Voters under 30 widened their support for a Democrat, from 21 points in 2022 to 69 points now. While 45 to 64-year-olds supported the Republican candidate by 8 percentage points in 2022, they supported Ossoff by a similar margin this year, according to ABC News Voter Polls.

根据美国广播公司选民民调,奥索夫在独立选民中稳稳获胜,独立选民占佐治亚州选民的约30%。大约60%的独立选民投票给奥索夫,而非其共和党挑战者科林斯。

Ossoff was able to win solidly among independents, who make up 3 in 10 voters in the Georgia electorate, according to ABC News Voter Polls. Roughly 6 in 10 independents voted for Ossoff over his Republican challenger, Collins.

与沃诺克2022年的表现相比,奥索夫在2026年大选中建立了在白人选民中的支持。今年竞选中,约40%的白人选民支持奥索夫(39%),而2022年支持沃诺克的白人选民为29%。

Ossoff built support among white voters in the 2026 election compared to Warnock in 2022. Roughly 4 in 10 white voters backed Ossoff in this year’s race (39%), while 29% supported Warnock back in 2022.

根据美国广播公司选民民调,约30%的佐治亚州参议院选民表示,他们对当今国家局势的发展方式感到愤怒。约90%表示对国家现状感到愤怒的佐治亚州州长选举选民支持奥索夫。

About 3 in 10 Georgia Senate voters say they are angry about the way things are going in the country today according to ABC News Voter polls. Around 9 in 10 Georgia gubernatorial voters who said they were angry about the country’s state of affairs supported Ossoff.

根据美国广播公司(ABC News)选民民调,约四分之三的佐治亚州参议院选举选民对经济持,其中约三分之一认为经济状况“差”。在将国家经济形容为“差”的选民中,约有十分之九在2026年参议院选举中投票给奥索夫。

According to ABC News Voter Polls, about three-quarters of Georgia Senate voters rate the economy negatively, including about a third who say the economy is poor. Roughly 9 in 10 voters who describe the nation’s economy as poor voted for Ossoff in the 2026 Senate election.

根据美国广播公司选民民调,约六成佐治亚州参议院选举选民不赞同特朗普履行总统职务的方式,其中约一半选民“强烈不赞同”。在不赞同特朗普的选民中,约有十分之九在今年的竞选中支持奥索夫。

According to ABC News Voter Polls, about 6 in 10 Georgia Senate voters disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president, including about half of voters who strongly disapprove. Roughly 9 in 10 voters who disapprove of Trump backed Ossoff in this year’s race.

据预测,民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯击败了共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆。格雷厄姆在其兄、长期担任参议员的林赛·格雷厄姆于6月去世后继任该席位。

Democrat Annie Andrews is projected to have defeated Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who held the seat after her brother, longtime Sen. Lindsey Graham, died in June.

根据美国广播公司选民民调,南卡罗来纳州黑人选民以83%对14%的差距支持安德鲁斯而非格雷厄姆,这一差距与2022年马修斯对斯科特在黑人选民中的领先优势几乎相同,当时黑人选民占选民总数的22%。

Black voters in South Carolina supported Andrews over Graham by an 83% to 14% margin, according to ABC News Voter Polls, almost identical to the margin that Matthews had over Scott in 2022 when Black voters made up 22% of the electorate.

但白人选民今年大幅转向民主党。2022年,白人选民以54个百分点的优势支持共和党人蒂姆·斯科特。这一次,他们仅以14个百分点的优势支持格雷厄姆。

But white voters shifted heavily toward the Democrat this year. In 2022, white voters supported Republican Tim Scott by 54 percentage points. This time they supported Graham by only 14 points.

2026年11月3日,佐治亚州亚特兰大,参议员乔恩·奥索夫在赢得中期选举连任后的选举夜集会上发表讲话。卡洛斯·巴里亚/路透社Senator Jon Ossoff speaks during an election night rally after winning reelection in the midterm elections, in Atlanta, Nov. 3, 2026. Carlos Barria/Reuters

根据美国广播公司选民民调,女性选民以略超10个百分点的优势支持安德鲁斯而非格雷厄姆。2022年,女性选民以18个百分点的优势支持斯科特。虽然格雷厄姆在男性选民中获胜,但她的领先优势仅为个位数——相比之下,四年前斯科特在男性选民中拥有34个百分点的优势。特别是在白人男性中,格雷厄姆的领先优势约为20个百分点——低于2022年共和党58个百分点的优势。

Women backed Andrews over Graham by just over 10 percentage points, according to ABC Voter Polls. In 2022, women backed Scott by 18 percentage points. While Graham won men this year, her margin was in the single digits -- compared to a 34-point margin in favor of Scott four years ago. Among white men, in particular, Graham’s margin was around 20 percentage points -- down from a 58-point margin for the Republican in 2022.

根据美国广播公司选民民调,南卡罗来纳州约四成选民年龄在65岁及以上,他们以10个百分点的优势支持格雷厄姆而非安德鲁斯。但这一优势远窄于2022年斯科特在该年龄段选民中拥有的32个百分点优势。

Roughly 4 in 10 South Carolina voters are 65 and older, and they backed Graham by 10 percentage points over Andrews, according to ABC Voter Polls. But that margin is much narrower than the 32 point margin that Scott held among these older voters in 2022.

2024年,约有十分之一的特朗普选民今年转投安德鲁斯。据ABC新闻选民民调显示,几乎没有任何一位卡玛拉·哈里斯2024年的选民支持格拉姆。

Roughly 1 in 10 Trump voters in 2024 crossed over to vote for Andrews this year. Almost none of Kamala Harris’s 2024 voters supported Graham, according to ABC News Voter Polls.

据ABC新闻选民民调显示,大学毕业生的支持率安德鲁斯高出17个百分点。这与2020年形成鲜明对比,当时57%的大学生选民投了林赛·格雷厄姆的票。2022年,斯科特在大学生选民中以23个百分点的优势获胜。

College graduates backed Andrews by a margin of 17 points, according to ABC News Voter Polls. That was a flip from 2020 when 57% of college graduates voted for Lindsey Graham. In 2022, Scott won college graduates by 23 percentage points.

据ABC新闻选民民调显示,南卡罗来纳州的郊区选民转向安德鲁斯8个百分点。2022年,郊区选民支持斯科特24个百分点。城市选民支持安德鲁斯的幅度为27个百分点,是2022年两倍有余。

Suburban voters in South Carolina broke toward Andrews by 8 percentage points according to ABC News Voter Polls. In 2022, suburban voters favored Scott by 24 percentage points. Urban voters backed Andrews by a 27 point margin, more than double the margin from 2022.

Josh Turek预计将赢得爱荷华州参议院选举,成为自2008年汤姆·哈金当选以来首位在该上议院代表爱荷华的民主党人。他的胜选得益于独立选民的支持以及成功争取到足够多的特朗普2024年选民。

Josh Turek is projected to win the Iowa Senate race, becoming the first Democrat to represent Iowa in the upper chamber since Tom Harkin was elected in 2008. His victory was propelled by strength among independents and by peeling off enough Trump 2024 voters.

据ABC新闻选民民调显示,自我认同为独立选民的选民中,Turek领先约20个百分点。民主党与共和党之间的党派转换相对有限,不过Turek获得的共和党人比获得共和党候选人 Ashley Hinson 的民主党人要多。

Self-identified independents in Iowa prefer Turek by around 20 percentage points, according to ABC News Voter Polls. Party-switching among Democrats and Republicans is relatively muted, though Turek captured more Republicans than Democrats who voted for GOP candidate Ashley Hinson.

2026年11月3日,南卡罗来纳州查尔斯顿,南卡罗来纳州民主党参议员候选人安妮·安德鲁斯在查尔斯顿万豪酒店与家人一同等待中期选举夜观选派对开始前,从竞选团队处听取选举结果的最新情况。温·麦克纳米/盖蒂图片社South Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews gets an update on election results from her campaign team while waiting with family before a midterm election night watch party at the Charleston Marriott, Nov. 3, 2026, in Charleston, S.C. Win Mcnamee/Getty Images

据ABC新闻选民民调显示,约十分之一的爱荷华州参议院选民在2024年支持特朗普后转而支持Turek,而哈里斯的选民几乎没有支持Hinson。

About 1 in 10 Iowa Senate voters who backed Trump in 2024 crossed over to Turek, while few Harris voters supported Hinson, according to ABC News Voter Polls.

据ABC新闻选民民调显示,男性选民支持Hinson约10个百分点,女性选民支持民主党人Josh Turek的幅度相近。2022年,共和党人Chuck Grassley以24个百分点的优势赢得男性选民,以3个百分点的优势赢得女性选民。

Male voters in Iowa back Hinson by about 10 percentage points, while women support Democrat Josh Turek by a similar margin, according to ABC News Voter Polls. In 2022, Republican Chuck Grassley carried men by 24 points and women by 3 points.

2022年,在艾奥瓦州参议院选举中,30岁以下的选民是唯一以9个百分点优势支持民主党人迈克尔·弗兰肯而非格拉斯利的年龄群体。据ABC新闻选民民调显示,今年18至29岁的选民以约2比1的优势支持图雷克。30至44岁的选民也以约10个百分点的优势倾向于图雷克,45至64岁的选民以大致相同的差距支持欣森,而65岁及以上的选民则在两位候选人之间大致平分。

In 2022, Iowa Senate voters under 30 were the only age group to back Democrat Michael Franken over Grassley by 9 percentage points. This year, voters aged 18 to 29 supported Turek by around a 2-to-1 margin, according to ABC News Voter Polls. Voters aged 30 to 44 also prefer Turek by about 10 points, those aged 45 to 64 back Hinson by around the same margin, and voters 65 and older are roughly evenly split between the candidates.

预计民主党人谢罗德·布朗将击败共和党人约翰·赫斯特德,赢得俄亥俄州参议院席位,夺回他在2024年失去的席位。以下是他如何构建获胜联盟的。

Democrat Sherrod Brown is projected to win the Ohio Senate seat over Republican John Husted and retake the seat he lost in 2024. Here’s how he built a winning coalition.

据ABC选民民调显示,俄亥俄州选民今晚对经济状况极为悲观,对特朗普的关税感到不满,并对高物价感到担忧,多数人将高物价归咎于特朗普。布朗在经济上更为不满的群体中以大幅优势获胜。他还利用了约六成选民认为赫斯特德过于支持特朗普这一因素,在大多数关键人口群体中相对于其2024年的得票差距有所扩大。

Ohio voters tonight were extremely negative about the state of the economy, frustrated with Trump’s tariffs and concerned about high costs, which a majority blamed on Trump, according to ABC Voter Polls. And Brown won big among the more economically disenchanted. He was also able to capitalize on the roughly 6 in 10 who said Husted was too supportive of Trump, gaining ground relative to his 2024 margins among most key demographic groups.

2026年11月3日,艾奥瓦州康瑟尔布拉夫斯,民主党参议员候选人、艾奥瓦州众议员乔什·图雷克(民主党)在选举日美国中期选举中投票。文森特·阿尔班/路透社Democratic Senate candidate and Iowa State Representative Josh Turek (D) votes in the US midterm elections on Election Day, in Council Bluffs, Iowa, November 3, 2026. Vincent Alban/Reuters

据ABC选民民调显示,布朗在俄亥俄州女性选民中以约15个百分点的优势击败赫斯特德。2024年,女性选民在布朗和共和党人伯尼·莫雷诺之间大致平分。虽然布朗以微弱劣势输掉了男性选民,但差距略小于2024年他输掉男性选民时的9个百分点。

Brown won female voters in Ohio by roughly 15 percentage points over Husted, according to ABC Voter Polls. In 2024, women split about evenly between Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno. While Brown narrowly lost men, the margin was somewhat smaller than the 9 points by which he lost men in 2024.

据ABC选民民调显示,布朗在30岁以下选民中以超过40个百分点的优势获胜——与2024年形成鲜明逆转,当时30岁以下选民以4个百分点支持莫雷诺。他还以约30个百分点的优势赢得30至44岁选民,而2024年他的优势仅为2个百分点。他以极其微弱的优势赢得了45至64岁选民——两年前他在这一群体中落后10个百分点。不过今年,与2024年相比,他在65岁及以上选民中的支持率有所下降。

Brown won voters under 30 by more than 40 percentage points, according to ABC Voter Polls -- a sharp reversal from 2024 when voters under 30 backed Moreno by 4 percentage points. He also won voters ages 30 to 44 by roughly 30 points, compared with his 2-point margin in 2024. He carried those ages 45 to 64 by a very slim margin -- a group he lost by 10 points two years ago. This year, though, he lost ground among voters ages 65 and older compared with 2024.

根据ABC选民民调,独立选民对布朗的支持率比对赫斯特德高出26个百分点。据爱迪生研究公司数据,这较2024年(+9)和2018年(+12)他在该群体中的优势幅度有大幅提升。布朗还赢得了几乎所有民主党人的支持,以及约十分之一共和党人的支持。

Independents backed Brown over Husted by 26 percentage points, according to ABC Voter Polls. This is a sizable increase over his margin with this group in 2024 (+9) and 2018 (+12), according to Edison. Brown also won nearly all Democrats and around 1 in 10 Republicans.

在俄亥俄州,白人选民在过去两个选举周期中均以至少10个百分点的优势支持共和党参议员候选人。但今晚,根据ABC选民民调,白人选民的投票几乎平分秋色——回到了2018年中期选举时最后一次出现的差距水平。

White Ohio voters supported the Republican Senate candidate by at least 10 percentage points in each of the last two cycles. But tonight, white voters broke nearly evenly according to ABC Voter Polls -- returning to margins last seen in the 2018 midterms.

根据ABC选民民调,布朗在黑人选民中的优势也从2024年的71个百分点扩大到今年的82个百分点。

Brown’s margin among Black voters also increased from 71 points in 2024 to 82 points this year, according to ABC Voter Polls.

根据ABC新闻选民民调,拥有大学学位的俄亥俄州选民以约20个百分点的优势支持民主党人谢罗德·布朗。这较他在2024年和2018年在该群体中14个百分点的优势略有提升。虽然他在没有大学学位的选民中以个位数差距输给了共和党人约翰·赫斯特德,但这较2024年他在该群体中落后14个百分点已有大幅改善。

Ohio voters with a college degree backed Democrat Sherrod Brown by about 20 percentage points, according to ABC News Voter Polls. This is a slight improvement over his 14-point margin with this group in both 2024 and 2018. While he lost voters without a college degree to Republican John Husted by single digits, this improved substantially over the 14 points by which he lost this group in 2024.

预计民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿将成为自1932年以来首位从堪萨斯州当选美国参议员的民主党人。以下是他如何击败现任共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔赢得该席位的过程。

Democrat Adam Hamilton is projected to become the first Democrat to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Kansas since 1932. Here’s how he beat incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall to win the seat.

根据ABC新闻选民民调,十分之四的堪萨斯州参议员选举选民表示,他们对国家目前的走向感到愤怒,他们以约80个百分点的优势支持汉密尔顿而非马歇尔。另有约三分之一表示不满,根据ABC新闻选民民调,他们的选票大致平分。

Four in 10 Kansas Senate voters say they are angry about the way things are going in the country today, according to ABC News Voter Polls, and they supported Hamilton over Marshall by roughly an 80-point margin. Another roughly third are dissatisfied and they split their vote according to ABC News Voter Polls.

根据ABC新闻选民民调,近六成堪萨斯州参议员选举选民不认可特朗普,其中约半数强烈不认可,他们广泛支持汉密尔顿而非马歇尔。

Nearly 6 in 10 Kansas Senate voters disapprove of Trump, including about half who strongly disapprove and they widely supported Hamilton over Marshall, according to ABC News Voter Polls.

据美国广播公司新闻选民民调显示,堪萨斯州约四成选民是共和党人,其中超过八成把票投给了马歇尔,但有12%的共和党选民转而支持汉密尔顿,而几乎所有民主党人都支持汉密尔顿。选民民调显示,独立选民支持这位民主党人的比例超过二比一。

About 4 in 10 voters in Kansas are Republicans and over 8 in 10 of them voted for Marshall, according to ABC News Voter Polls -- but 12% of them split off to vote for Hamilton and nearly all Democrats supported Hamilton. Independents split for the Democrat by a more than 2-to-1 margin, according to Voter Polls.

2026年11月3日,堪萨斯州奥弗兰帕克,堪萨斯州民主党参议员候选人亚当·汉密尔顿在万豪酒店的酒店套房内对选举结果作出反应。内森·霍华德/路透社Democratic candidate for Senate from Kansas Adam Hamilton reacts to election results in his hotel suite at a Marriott hotel in Overland Park, Kansas, Nov. 3, 2026. Nathan Howard/Reuters

美国广播公司新闻选民民调显示,女性以10个百分点的优势支持汉密尔顿,男性则以2个百分点的优势支持马歇尔。在2022年的选举中,男性和女性都以两位数的优势支持共和党人杰里·莫兰,他以巨大优势赢得了第三个美国参议院任期。2020年,马歇尔击败民主党人芭芭拉·博林格当选美国参议员时,男性以22个百分点的优势支持马歇尔,但堪萨斯州女性的支持率大致平分秋色。

Women supported Hamilton by a 10-percentage point margin and men supported Marshall by a 2-point margin, according to ABC News Voter Polls. In the 2022 election, both men and women supported Republican Jerry Moran by double-digit margins and he won his third term to the U.S. Senate by a wide margin. In 2020, when Marshall beat Democrat Barbara Bolinger for the U.S. Senate, men supported Marshall by 22 points, but Kansas women were about evenly split.

美国广播公司新闻选民民调显示,2024年投票给卡玛拉·哈里斯的堪萨斯州选民基本上都支持了汉密尔顿。特朗普的选民围绕马歇尔并没有那么团结,其中10%的人转而支持汉密尔顿。

Essentially all of the Kansas voters who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 supported Hamilton, according to ABC News Voter Polls. Trump voters were not as united around Marshall, with 10% of them peeling off for Hamilton.

民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科预计将击败共和党人肯·帕克斯顿。塔拉里科是一名教育工作者,也是得克萨斯州众议院议员。塔拉里科是靠年轻选民赢得胜利的。在今年这场竞选中,18至29岁的选民中约有八成(79%)支持塔拉里科,而在2024年,18至29岁选民中约有半数支持民主党人科林·奥尔雷德。

Democrat James Talarico, an educator and member of the Texas House of Representatives, was projected to defeat Republican Ken Paxton. Talarico was propelled to victory by younger voters. Roughly 8 in 10 voters ages 18-29 (79%) supported Talarico in this year’s race, compared with about half of 18 to 29-year-olds who supported Democrat Collin Allred in 2024.

美国广播公司新闻选民民调显示,在得克萨斯州参议院竞选中,58%的女性选民支持塔拉里科,而男性的投票大致平分秋色。在2024年得克萨斯州参议院竞选中,男性选民以18个百分点的优势支持共和党人特德·克鲁兹而非奥尔雷德,而女性对两位候选人的支持大致平分秋色。

In the Texas Senate race, 58% of female voters supported Talarico, while men were roughly evenly split in their vote, according to ABC News Voter Polls. In the 2024 Texas Senate race, male voters favored Republican Ted Cruz by an 18 percentage point margin over Allred while women were about evenly split between candidates.

根据美国广播公司(ABC News)选民民调,在2026年参议员选举中,塔拉里科在德克萨斯州的黑人和西班牙裔选民中获得了更多支持。十分之九的黑人选民和三分之二的西班牙裔德州选民支持塔拉里科而非帕克斯顿。这比阿尔雷德在2024年竞选参议员时从这些群体中获得的支持率高出约10个百分点。

Talarico gained among Black and Hispanic Texans during his 2026 Senate victory, according to ABC News Voter Polls. Nine in 10 Black voters and two-thirds of Hispanic Texans supported Talarico over Paxton. This is roughly 10 percentage points higher than the shares Allred received from these groups during his 2024 candidacy for Senate.

根据美国广播公司选民民调,大约七成德州参议员选举选民(71%)对经济持,其中34%将经济评价为“差”。在对经济持的选民中,72%投给了塔拉里科。

Roughly 7 in 10 Texas Senate voters (71%) rated the economy negatively, including 34% who rated the economy as poor according to ABC News Voter Polls. Among voters who evaluated the economy negatively, 72% voted for Talarico.

2026年11月2日,得克萨斯州奥斯汀,得克萨斯州民主党参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科在中期选举前其竞选活动的最后一场集会上挥手致意。迈克·西格/路透社Democratic Senate candidate from Texas James Talarico waves at the final rally of his campaign, ahead of the midterm elections, in Austin, Texas, November 2, 2026. Mike Segar/Reuters

根据美国广播公司选民民调,约四成德州参议员选举选民(41%)表示经济是国家面临的首要问题,而29%表示是民主现状。将民主视为最重要问题的选民以约3比1的比例支持塔拉里科,而塔拉里科在关注经济的选民中也以两位数的优势获胜。

About 4 in 10 Texas Senate voters (41%) said the economy was the top issue facing the country, while 29% said the state of democracy, according to ABC News Voter Polls. Voters who viewed democracy as the most important issue favored Talarico by a roughly 3-to-1 margin, while Talarico won economy-focused voters by a double-digit margin.

近六成德州参议员选举选民不赞同特朗普,其中一半强烈不赞同,这些选民以巨大优势支持塔拉里科。

Nearly 6 in 10 Texas Senate voters disapproved of Trump, including half who disapproved strongly, and those voters supported Talarico by wide margins.

根据美国广播公司选民民调,表示与两年前相比经济状况“变差”的德州参议员选举选民(43%)约为表示“变好”选民(20%)的两倍。在表示经济状况恶化的选民中,77%投给了塔拉里科。

About twice as many Texas Senate voters said they were worse off (43%) than better off (20%) compared with two years ago, according to ABC News Voter Polls. Among voters who said their financial situation has worsened, 77% voted for Talarico.

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