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克里斯·梅森:美国选举将改变特朗普——伯纳姆将如何应对?Chris Mason: The US elections will change Trump – how will Burnham react?

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安迪·伯纳姆系着黑色领带,手持酒杯,与另外三名男子交谈。Andy Burnham wearing a black tie and holding a wine glass while talking to three other men

英国首相在美中期选举后的首次公开表态,瞬间折射出当代国际政治与外交的现状。“特朗普总统已接受选举结果,”安迪·伯纳姆表示。

The first public words from the prime minister after the American midterm elections were instantly revealing about contemporary international politics and diplomacy. "Well, President Trump has accepted the results," Andy Burnham said.

英国领导人极少需要对近期美国总统作出此类表述——即他们不质疑本国选举结果。但过去理所当然之事,如今已不复存在。

It is not an observation British leaders have frequently had to make about recent American presidents – that they are not disputing the result of elections in their own country. But what would previously have been taken for granted no longer can be.

伯纳姆与总统的关系建立仍处于起步阶段——迄今仅限于寥寥数次通话,以及9月在纽约联合国总部的一次面对面会晤。

Burnham remains in the foothills of establishing a relationship with the president – so far it has amounted to a handful of phone calls and one face-to-face meeting at the United Nations in New York in September.

在继续尝试与唐纳德·特朗普建立融洽关系的过程中,他面对的是一位处于截然不同政治境地的总统,这与基尔·斯塔默爵士试图搭建桥梁时的情形大相径庭。

As he continues to attempt to build a rapport with Donald Trump, he will be doing so with a president in a wildly different political situation than when Sir Keir Starmer was trying to build bridges with him.

这不再是一个非凡逆袭的故事,而是一个中期选举总统的故事,他似乎因一场外国战争的后果而受到惩罚——而这正是他原本承诺要避免的战争类型。

No longer is this a story of an extraordinary comeback, but of a midterm president seemingly punished for the consequences of a foreign war the type of which he had originally promised to avoid.

值得注意的是,英国政府的公开回应同样立足于与伊朗战争的后果:生活成本。

And it is noticeable that the British government's public reaction is grounded too in the consequences of the war with Iran: the cost of living.

“我觉得世界现在有机会围绕影响我们所有人的问题团结起来,那就是生活成本,”首相表示。

"I feel the world has an opportunity now to unite around the issue that is affecting us all and that's the cost of living," the prime minister said.

“但在中东冲突解决、俄罗斯发动的乌克兰冲突结束之前,我无法缓解民众的生活成本压力。”在政府内部,伊朗战争及其后果——尤其是对能源价格的影响——被普遍视为当前推高生活成本的诸多因素中最大的单一推手。

"But I can't get people's cost of living pressures down until the conflict in the Middle East is resolved, the conflict between in Ukraine started by Russia." Within government the Iran war and its consequences, particularly on energy prices, is widely seen as the biggest individual contributor among the many factors currently driving up the cost of living.

坦率地说,这也是一种让许多人——包括许多美国盟友——与许多美国人(无论民主党人还是共和党人)站在一起的观点:当被问及为何这些选举会出现这样的结果时,他们指向任何加油站外显示的油价。

And, bluntly, it is one that puts many, including many of America's allies, in alignment with many in America, Democrat and Republican, who when asked why these elections went as they did, point at the prices displayed outside any petrol station.

在美选票统计之前,外交大臣米利班德在接受我BBC Newscast节目采访时对此进行了反思。

Speaking before the votes in America were counted, the Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband reflected on this when I spoke to him on BBC Newscast.

当我具体问他是否担心在国内受挫的特朗普可能在国际上表现得更加好战时,外交大臣提到了伊朗战争。

When I asked him specifically if he feared that a domestically humiliated Trump may prove more belligerent internationally, it was to the Iran war the foreign secretary referred.

他没有直接回答我的问题,而是说:“坦率地说,整个政府最大的责任之一是国内的生活成本问题,而我们也知道,导致生活成本问题的最大因素之一,坦率地说,就是冲突。”“霍尔木兹海峡虽然没有完全关闭,但也没有完全开放、自由通行,这正冲击着国内的家庭,”他说。

He didn't offer a direct answer to my question, but chose instead to say this: "I know that one of the biggest responsibilities of the whole government, frankly, is the cost of living situation at home, and we know one of the biggest contributors to the cost of living situation is, frankly, the conflict." "The Strait of Hormuz being not exactly closed, but not properly open, not free flowing, and that is hitting families at home," he said.

“我们知道我们需要通过外交手段解决这一冲突,因此这是我们正在努力的事情之一。这是我在G20峰会上与美国国务卿讨论过的事情,也是我们继续在努力的事情,”他补充道。外交大臣上周在亚特兰大的会议上会见了鲁比奥。

"We know that we need a diplomatic way out of this conflict, and so that is one of the things that we're working on. It's something I talked to the U.S. Secretary of State about at the G20, and it's something we continue to work on," he added. The foreign secretary met Marco Rubio at the meeting in Atlanta last week.

但对英国政府和许多其他国家而言,最大的问题是:国内受挫是否会让特朗普总统在国外变得更愤怒?

But the big question for the British government, and so many others, is does defeat at home make it more likely that President Trump gets angrier abroad?

还是说,美国的传统盟友——英国、欧盟、加拿大、澳大利亚等——会感到更有底气,更愿意与特朗普的国内政治对手合作,试图挑战和遏制一位被削弱的总统?这两个最终问题的答案将决定未来几年世界事务的许多走向。

Or, do America's traditional allies, the UK, the European Union, Canada, Australia and others feel more strident and willing to work with Donald Trump's domestic political opponents to try to challenge and restrain a weakened president? The answers to these two final questions will determine much in world affairs in the next couple of years.

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