特朗普的惨败在美国引发了地震。总统已沦为华盛顿最有权势的旁观者，而对手民主党则夺得了众议院和参议院。他的遗产也岌岌可危，因为共和党“特朗普不再”派别正密谋对“MAGA”发动宫廷政变。
Trump’s crushing defeat has caused an earthquake in America. The president has been reduced to the most powerful bystander in Washington, as the rival Democrats seize both House and Senate. His legacy is also in peril, as Republican Never-Trumpers plot a palace coup against Maga.
尽管这一切引人入胜，但英国更应关注选举结果似乎也将释放的地缘政治动荡。
As gripping as this all is, Britain should be rather more concerned with the geopolitical disruption that the results also look set to unleash.
这是因为，在惨败之后，特朗普很可能首先要做的事就是疯狂寻求退出伊朗冲突。诚然，总统早已在寻找退路，但这个掩饰不足的愿望如今已成为迫切的战略必要——也是未来几周白宫的首要任务。结果已成定局。石油价格已因预期冲突迅速结束而暴跌。如果伊朗战争确实即将结束，那对英国将有重大影响。
This is because the first thing that Trump will likely do in the wake of the rout is frantically seek an exit from the Iran conflict. True, the president has long been looking for an off-ramp, but this barely concealed wish will by now be a desperate strategic imperative – and the White House’s top priority in coming weeks. The writing is on the wall. Oil prices have plunged in anticipation of a swift end to the conflict. If the Iran war is indeed set to end, then that has big implications for Britain.
首先，让我们考虑英国必须应对的直接地缘政治反弹。特朗普将面临巨大压力，去促成一份草率且过早的和平协议。一份他可以作为战利品挥舞以挽面子的照片机会式协议，如今是他首要的政治优先事项。
First let’s consider the immediate geopolitical blowback with which Britain must contend. Trump will be under tremendous pressure to broker a shabby and premature peace deal. A photo-op agreement that he can brandish as a trophy to save face is now his top political priority.
存在这样的风险：在匆忙签字画押的过程中，与伊朗之间最具争议的摩擦点将被留待未决。一份糟糕的协议将伤害普通英国民众。从长远来看，一份粗劣的协议可能导致我们的能源账单飙升，以及从橄榄油到笔记本电脑等消费品价格暴涨。
There is a risk that the most controversial friction points with Iran will be left unresolved in the rush to put pen to parchment. A bad deal will hurt ordinary British people. In the long term, a shoddy agreement could spell spikes in our energy bills and price surges in consumer items from olive oil to laptops.
我们应当向特朗普建议的是，他应该追求卡塔尔目前正在推动的那种狭窄、分步骤的协议——但要有所变通。卡塔尔正在游说一项旨在重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，同时将核问题留待以后的协议。
What we should suggest to Trump is that he should pursue the narrow, sequenced deal that Qatar is currently pushing for – but with a twist. Qatar is lobbying for a deal which would aim to reopen Hormuz, while setting aside the nuclear question for later.
英国不仅能提供建议，还能帮助增强特朗普的谈判筹码以实现这些目标。伊朗不仅希望结束美国的制裁，也希望结束欧洲的制裁。我们可以利用这一压力点帮助特朗普取得具体成果：例如达成一项正式协议，允许英法联合扫雷任务开展，或让德黑兰同意就核核查人员返回设定具有约束力的时间表。
Britain can offer not just advice, but also help to strengthen Trump’s bargaining power to achieve these objectives. Iran wants an end not only to American sanctions, but also the European sanctions. We can exploit this pressure point to help Trump secure concrete outcomes: for instance a formal agreement allowing a joint Anglo-French mine-clearance mission, or Tehran’s agreement to a binding timeline for the return of nuclear inspectors.
随着美国选民对特朗普的伊朗冒险说够了，我们必须面对一个简单的事实。普通美国选民的同情、优先关切和耐心，比五角大楼的战争推演和军事算计更重要。投票箱每次都胜过作战计划。即便涉及美国与其真正“特殊”盟友——即以色列，而非英国——的军事合作，这一点也同样成立。
As American voters call time on Trump’s Iran escapade we must face up to a simple fact. The sympathies, priorities, and patience of ordinary American voters matter more than Pentagon war games and military calculus. The ballot box trumps battle plans every time. This is true even when it comes to America’s military cooperation with its real “special” ally – namely Israel, not Britain.
中期选举是一记警钟：英国必须在军事上自立自强。这不仅是为现有部队提供充足资源的问题，还在于获取我们缺乏的能力——从卫星到无人机再到导弹防御。
The midterms are a wakeup call: Britain must stand on its own two feet militarily. This is not just a matter of properly resourcing our existing forces, but acquiring the capabilities we lack – from satellites to drones to missile defences.
随着一个更加大胆的伊朗使全球能源市场比以往任何时候都更加岌岌可危，我们也需要停止在战略天然气储备问题上犹豫不决。上月国防大臣卢克·波拉德声称，我们最大的设施——约克郡的Rough——“不是政府选择投资的对象”。这简直是疯了。
With an emboldened Iran leaving global energy markets more precarious than ever, we also need to stop shilly-shallying over our strategic gas storage. Last month defence minister Luke Pollard claimed that our biggest facility, Rough in Yorkshire, “is not something that the Government is choosing to invest in”. This is madness.
安迪·伯纳姆需要做出决定，向森特理克提供其一直请求的、由国家支持的“上限与下限”担保，以维持Rough继续运营。他需要勇敢地坦率告诉公众，我们可能不得不通过账单或税收来为此买单。
Andy Burnham needs to make the call and give Centrica the state-backed “cap-and-floor” guarantee it has requested to keep Rough open. He needs to be brave enough to level with the public that we may have to pay for this through bills or taxation.
我们不能说没人警告过我们。北约成立仅几年后，美国总统德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔就警告说：“美国的水井可能会枯竭。”随着油价飙升、美国选民的耐心耗尽，我们开始明白这句话的真正含义。英国是时候自己去取水了。
We can’t say we weren’t warned. Just a few years after Nato was formed, the US president Dwight D Eisenhower warned: “The American well can run dry.”As oil prices spike and the patience of American voters drains away, we are starting to learn what that really means. It is time for Britain to fetch its own water.