在2022年中期选举前夕，经济和通货膨胀是选民最关心的问题。民主党付出了代价：与2020年总统大选相比，其在全国普选票份额中的优势下降了6个百分点，并失去了对众议院的控制权。
Heading into the 2022 midterm elections, the economy and inflation were voters’ top concerns. Democrats paid the price: Their margin in the share of the national popular vote dropped 6 percentage points from the 2020 presidential election, and they lost control of the House of Representatives.
今年，经济和通货膨胀再次成为首要议题。但特朗普总统所属政党的代价要惨重得多。共和党的得票优势骤降14个百分点，并被逐出两院的执政地位。
This year, the economy and inflation were once again the top issue. But President Trump’s party paid a far steeper price. Republicans’ vote margin plummeted 14 percentage points, and they were swept from power in both chambers.
这些截然不同的结果告诉我们，虽然经济显然至关重要，但它并非某些叙事（以及民主党的宣传）所描绘的那种决定选举的唯一因素。还有更多因素在起作用：选民似乎对特朗普治下国家所发生的一切深感不安，而通货膨胀正是这一点的症状。
These divergent outcomes tell us that while the economy was clearly critical, it wasn’t the monolithic driver of the election that some narratives (and Democratic messaging) made it out to be. Much more was at work: Voters appear deeply dismayed about what has happened to their country under Trump, and inflation was a symptom of that.
出口民调为选民除经济之外还在想什么提供了线索。32%的受访者将民主状况列为头号议题，仅次于经济。90%的受访者表示，政府腐败是他们投票时考虑的关键或主要因素。移民突袭行动和保守派的民权法庭裁决可能激发了拉美裔和黑人选民的投票动机。
Exit polls suggest clues as to what, in addition to the economy, was on their minds. The state of democracy was cited as the top issue by 32% of respondents, second only to the economy. Government corruption was crucial or a major factor in how 90% of respondents voted. Immigration raids and conservative civil-rights court rulings might have motivated Hispanic and Black voters.
民主、腐败、移民和生活成本并非各自独立的板块。它们在选民心中相互交织，这种模式在以往的美国选举和世界各地的选举中都曾出现。
Democracy, corruption, immigration and the cost of living don’t occupy different compartments. They are intertwined in voters’ minds, a pattern that appeared in previous elections in the U.S. and around the world.
通货膨胀是现任者的杀手，自2021年以来，它让左翼和右翼的执政党纷纷落马。这并不是因为通货膨胀本身像在魏玛德国那样摧毁了人们的生计。相反，当通货膨胀与腐败、两极分化或失序结合在一起时，它可能成为治理失败的征兆。
Inflation is an incumbent killer, mowing down governing parties on the left and right since 2021. This isn’t because inflation itself is destroying livelihoods, the way it did in Weimar Germany. Rather, combined with corruption, polarization or disorder, inflation can be symptomatic of failing governance.
到2022年第三季度，受新冠疫情期间供应链中断和乔·拜登刺激计划的推动，通胀率飙升至8.3%。在11月中期选举前夕，受俄罗斯入侵乌克兰推高，汽油价格较拜登就职时每加仑上涨逾1美元。30年期抵押贷款利率翻倍多，升至7%左右。
By the third quarter of 2022, inflation, fueled by Covid-19-era supply-chain disruptions and Joe Biden’s stimulus, had rocketed to 8.3%. On the eve of the November midterms, gasoline, kicked higher by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, was up more than $1 a gallon from when Biden took office. The 30-year mortgage had more than doubled to around 7%.
经济增长稳健、失业率低，然而在出口民调中，76%的受访者将经济形势描述为“不太好”或“差”，79%表示通胀造成了“严重或中度”困难。民主党遭遇惩罚并不令人意外。
Growth was solid and unemployment low, yet in exit polls 76% of respondents described the economy as “not so good” or “poor” and 79% said inflation had caused “severe or moderate” hardship. Democrats’ comeuppance was no surprise.
与当时相比，今年的经济背景没那么糟糕。通胀率约为当时的一半，汽油价格和抵押贷款利率处于相似水平。经济增长强劲，失业率低。
Compared to then, this year’s economic backdrop isn’t as bad. Inflation is about half what it was then, gasoline prices and mortgage rates are in the same vicinity. Growth is strong and unemployment low.
在出口民调中，民众情绪大体相同：75%的受访者称经济“不太好”或“差”，79%表示通胀造成了严重或中度困难。那么，为何反弹严重得多？
In exit polls, the mood is much the same: 75% of respondents said the economy was “not so good” or “poor,” and 79% said inflation had caused severe or moderate hardship. So why was the backlash so much more severe?
当被问及经济时，选民往往考量的是国家整体，而非仅自身。2024年，《华尔街日报》民调发现，选民经常将自己所在州的经济评为好，但将全国经济评为差。
When asked about the economy, voters often think about the country as a whole, not just themselves. In 2024, Wall Street Journal polls found voters routinely rated their own state’s economy as good but the country’s as bad.
自2月底美国和以色列袭击伊朗以来，汽油价格飙升无疑削弱了家庭购买力，令情绪转差。然而，哥本哈根大学政治学家Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard将汽油价格对县一级家庭收入的影响与共和党中期选举表现进行对比后，发现二者无相关性。他表示，这表明汽油价格上涨对选民对全国经济的整体看法影响更大，而非他们自己的钱包。
The surge in gasoline prices since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February has without question sapped household spending power and darkened moods. Yet when Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard, a political scientist at the University of Copenhagen, compared the county-level effect of gasoline prices on household incomes to Republican midterm performance, he found no correlation. This, he said, suggests that rising gasoline prices mattered more for voters’ broader perceptions of the national economy than for their own pocketbooks.
2024年，对经济的焦虑因非法移民、防疫预防措施和以色列-哈马斯冲突的分歧而加剧。
In 2024, anxiety about the economy was compounded by discord over illegal immigration, pandemic precautions and the Israeli-Hamas conflict.
这一次，焦虑似乎源于特朗普上任以来的执政方式，其中包括积极动用联邦权力打击对手、媒体和移民，以及规避法院和国会的制约。民主党人将民主置于经济之上，无党派人士将其置于经济之后的第二位。约90%的共和党人、民主党人和无党派人士将腐败评为对其投票至关重要或重要的因素，尽管出口民调并未具体说明是指谁的腐败。
This time around, it appears the anxiety is coming from the way Trump has governed since taking office, which includes aggressively deploying federal power against his adversaries, the media and immigrants and circumventing the constraints of courts and Congress. Democrats rated democracy as more important than the economy, independents as second only to the economy. Around 90% of Republicans, Democrats and Independents rated corruption as crucial or important to their vote, although the exit poll didn’t specify whose corruption.
这幅图景并不完整，因为民调机构提出的问题并不总能捕捉到选民的真实感受。看似是生活成本问题的背后可能还有更多内容：人工智能和数据中心不仅推高了电费，还威胁就业和安全。伊朗冲突不仅推高了能源价格，看起来也像是另一场无休止的战争。腐败本身可能不会推翻政府，除非公众将其与日常生活联系起来。
This is an incomplete picture because the questions pollsters ask don’t always capture what voters are feeling. What looks like a cost-of-living issue might be more: artificial intelligence and data centers don’t just raise the cost of electricity, they also threaten jobs and safety. The conflict in Iran isn’t just driving energy prices, it looks like another endless war, too. Corruption by itself may not topple a government until the public connects it to everyday life.
维克托·奥尔班执政20多年来，削弱了匈牙利法院和媒体的独立性，重写了宪法和选举制度以巩固其政党的统治地位，同时奖赏亲信、打击对手。
Viktor Orbán over 20 years in power eroded the independence of Hungary’s courts and media and rewrote the constitution and the electoral system to solidify his party’s grip, all while rewarding cronies and punishing opponents.
他的垮台源于一位精明的反对派领导人彼得·马扎尔之手。今年早些时候，德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校LBJ公共事务学院的洛林茨·雷代伊在《外交事务》杂志上写道：“他的‘蒂萨党’揭露了国家腐败，并围绕民生议题展开了不懈竞选，包括高通胀、公共服务恶化以及国家基础设施的糟糕状况。”
His downfall this year came at the hands of a savvy opposition leader, Péter Magyar. His “Tisza Party exposed state corruption and relentlessly campaigned on pocketbook issues, including high inflation, the deterioration of public services, and the poor state of the country’s infrastructure,” Lorinc Redei, who teaches at the University of Texas at Austin’s LBJ School of Public Affairs, wrote in Foreign Affairs earlier this year.
民主党人反复试图将可负担性问题与特朗普及其家族据称从需要政府照顾的行业和企业中获益的指控联系起来。没有人比佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫更有力地推动这一点，他在周二以压倒性优势连任。他在八月的一场集会上宣称：“自特朗普上任以来，绞肉价格上涨了20%。咖啡，40%。医保保费：飙升至极高水平。请记住，当你为所有东西支付更多费用时，第一家族的财富正以数十亿美元的速度增长。”特朗普的发言人否认，行业与特朗普政府或家族之间的交易造成了任何利益冲突。
Democrats repeatedly sought to connect affordability to allegations that Trump and his family have benefited from industries and businesses that need government favors. No one pushed this more energetically than Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia, re-elected in a landslide Tuesday. At an August rally he declared, “Ground beef’s up 20% since Trump took office. Coffee, 40%. Health premiums: through the roof. And remember, while you pay more for everything, the first family’s wealth is growing by billions of dollars.”Trump’s spokesmen have denied that transactions between industry and Trump’s administration or family have created any conflict of interest.
甚至共和党人也担心，特朗普的行为正在激怒那些正在应对生活成本的选民。我的同事报道了一个与特朗普结盟的团体在焦点小组中听到的评论，大意如下：特朗普并不真正关心我正在经历的事情。看起来他想把名字印在所有东西上。
Even Republicans worried that Trump’s behavior was upsetting voters coping with costs. My colleagues reported how a Trump-aligned group heard comments from focus groups along the lines of: Trump doesn’t really care about what I’m going through. It seems like he wants to put his name on everything.
正如周二反对党取得的压倒性胜利所示，美国民主制度的表现比匈牙利要好。
American democratic institutions have held up better than Hungary’s as Tuesday’s resounding victory for the opposition party shows.
不过，这给民主党人上了一堂警示课。他们的胜利与其说是对其意识形态优先事项的辩护，不如说是要求让生活负担得起、治理诚实有效的授权。如果他们在这方面失败，他们的多数党地位将无法维持。
There’s a cautionary lesson here for Democrats, though. Their victory was less a vindication of their ideological priorities than a mandate to make life affordable and governance honest and effective. If they fail at that, their majorities won’t last.