在被挤出得克萨斯州政坛数十年后，民主党人周二一夜之间将所有主要全州范围选举的胜利收入囊中，实现了“翻蓝”。这场政治剧变已引发关于其对2028年选举版图影响的猜测，鉴于共和党长期以来对得州的牢固控制。
After decades of remaining all but shut out of Texas politics, Democrats flipped all major statewide races blue in a single night on Tuesday. The political shakeup is already leading to speculation about what it could mean for the electoral map in 2028, given Republicans’ traditional grip on Texas.
在诸多胜利中，吉娜·伊诺霍萨以7个百分点的优势击败了寻求连任第三届的州长格雷格·阿博特，而詹姆斯·塔拉里科在参议员竞选中以12个百分点的优势大胜州检察长肯·帕克斯顿。胜利规模之大，令一些民主党策略师已开始预期，得州——曾被视为共和党的基本盘——将在2028年成为摇摆州。
Among the victories, Gina Hinojosa defeated three-term incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott by seven points, while James Talarico routed state Attorney General Ken Paxton by 12 in the Senate race. The scale of the victories was so resounding, some Democratic strategists are already anticipating that Texas — once considered the bedrock of the GOP — will be a swing state in 2028.
“假如候选人在得州参选，能与得州选民产生共鸣，回应他们的需求，搭建大帐篷，他们完全可以在我们州取得成功，”塔拉里科周四对《政治报》表示。“我敦促每一位2028年的候选人都要在我们州全力角逐。”虽然这远非板上钉钉，但如果民主党设法在2028年拿下得州，他们通往白宫的道路将变得异常简单。赢下哈里斯2024年拿下的每一个州，外加得州，将为民主党带来266张选举人票，这意味着任何一个摇摆州都能助他们跨过门槛，重返椭圆形办公室。
“If candidates run in Texas who connect with Texans, who speak to their needs, who build a big tent, they can absolutely be successful in our state,” Talarico told Politico on Thursday. “And I would urge every 2028 candidate to vigorously compete in our state.”While it’s far from a sure thing, if Democrats manage to take Texas in 2028, their path to the White House becomes extraordinarily simple. Winning every state carried by Harris in 2024 alongside Texas would bring Democrats to 266 Electoral College votes, meaning that any single swing state would bring them across the line and return the party to the Oval Office.
如果共和党候选人在2028年失去得州，他们的获胜之路将变得异常狭窄；他们需要赢下剩余的每一个摇摆州，外加其传统大本营——或者设法翻转一个深蓝州，尽管专家一致认为，在得州翻蓝的那一年，这将是一项艰巨任务。19个可靠的民主党州加上华盛顿特区，自2008年以来在每次大选中都投给同一阵营。
If a Republican candidate loses Texas in 2028, their path to victory becomes exceptionally narrow; they would need to win every remaining swing state in addition to their traditional strongholds — or manage to flip a deep-blue state, though experts agree that would be a tough ask in a year that Texas flips. The 19 reliably Democratic states and Washington, D.C., have voted together in every election since 2008.
“现实是，没有得州，共和党就没有通往白宫的可行路径，”乔治城大学政府事务研究所高级研究员约书亚·胡德对MS NOW表示。
“The reality is, without Texas, Republicans don’t have a viable path to the White House,” Joshua Huder, senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Government Affairs Institute, told MS NOW.
Carson Elm-Picard / MS NOW 2024年，普遍公认的摇摆州有七个：亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、密歇根州、新墨西哥州、内华达州、北卡罗来纳州和宾夕法尼亚州。然而，如果德克萨斯州成为势均力敌的战场，可能意味着更多州将进入竞争行列，包括爱荷华州、俄亥俄州，甚至阿拉斯加州。前两个州周二出现了多项全州范围的民主党胜利，而后者的三项全州选举仍过于胶着，难以判定胜负。
Carson Elm-Picard / MS NOW In 2024 there were seven generally agreed-upon swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. However, a toss-up Texas would likely mean that more states are in play, including Iowa, Ohio or even Alaska. The former two saw multiple statewide Democratic victories Tuesday, and three statewide races in the latter remain too close to call.
更广阔的2028年选举版图可能给共和党带来麻烦，因为该党可能因需要捍卫曾经可靠的大本营，而导致在传统摇摆州的竞争能力受挫。
A broader 2028 map could spell trouble for the GOP, which may see its ability to compete in traditional swing states kneecapped by the need to defend once-reliable strongholds.
“如果你必须拼命防守德克萨斯州，那你在北卡罗来纳州怎么办？在南卡罗来纳州怎么办？在爱荷华州怎么办？”Huder告诉MS NOW。“这确实让他们[共和党]陷入守势，因为他们将不得不在德克萨斯州投入大量资金。”然而，民主党人对在德克萨斯州、爱荷华州等州的前景仍有理由保持谨慎。中期选举的翻盘并不总能转化为大选胜利，堪萨斯州便是例证，该州经常选出民主党州长，但自1964年林登·B·约翰逊以来，从未在总统大选中投给过民主党候选人。
“If you’re defending Texas that hard, then what are you going to be doing in North Carolina? What are you going to be doing in South Carolina? What are you going to be doing in Iowa?”Huder told MS NOW. “It really does put them [Republicans] on the defensive, because they’re going to have to invest a lot of money into Texas.”Democrats have reason to be cautious about their prospects in states like Texas and Iowa, however. Midterm flips don’t always translate to presidential victories, as seen in states like Kansas, which frequently elects Democratic governors but hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
尽管取得了惊人的两位数胜利，Talarico承认，周二出现的戏剧性民主党倾斜可能并非永久。他表示，虽然德克萨斯州选民投票支持变革，但这不一定意味着他们倾向于某一党派而非另一党派。
Despite his stunning double-digit win, Talarico acknowledges that Tuesday’s dramatic Democratic shift may not be permanent. He said that while Texans voted for change, it wasn’t necessarily for one party over the other.
“我要提醒大家，不要假设德克萨斯人突然都变成了党派性的民主党人，”他说。
“I would caution all of us in assuming that Texans all of a sudden became partisan Democrats,” he said.
据Huder称，维持德克萨斯州“变蓝”及其他中期选举成果的关键，可能在于民主党的地面竞选策略。随着两党每个周期在电视广告上投入越来越多资金，Huder表示，民主党和共和党都忽视了传统的面对面竞选战术，尤其是在农村地区。
The key to maintaining a blue Texas and other midterm gains, according to Huder, may be found in Democrats’ ground game strategy. As parties have poured more and more money into television ads each cycle, Huder says Democrats and Republicans alike have neglected traditional interpersonal campaigning tactics, especially in rural areas.
“还要继续疯狂筹款、指望这招管用，还要指望那些反正都会出来投票的人，还是要试着去接触平时不接触的人群，试着去争取平时赢不下来的地方？”哈德说。
“Are you still going to just fundraise out the wazoo and hope that that works, and bank on voters that normally show up anyway, or are you going to try to reach out to people that you don’t normally talk to and try to swing places that you don’t normally?”Huder said.
无论哪种情况，两党都面临着至少二十年来最具竞争力的选举版图，而得克萨斯州正处于这一版图的正中心。哈德说，在两党对立严重的时代，这只能是美国民主的一件好事。
Either way, both parties are staring down what will likely be the most competitive electoral map in at least two decades, with Texas at the dead center of it. In an era of stark partisanship, Huder said, that can only be a good thing for American democracy.