中期选举前夕，美国各地的共和党人重新划定国会选区地图，希望增加在选举日击败民主党的机会。但这些努力周二未能阻挡潮流，一系列民主党胜利——包括在深红州的胜利——推动该党从共和党手中夺回了众议院控制权。
Ahead of the midterms, Republicans in states across the U.S. redrew congressional maps in the hopes of increasing their chances of beating out Democrats come Election Day. But those efforts failed to stem the tide on Tuesday as a slew of Democratic victories, including in deep-red states, propelled the party to wrest control of the House from the GOP.
国会选区地图传统上每十年重新划定一次，以根据全国人口普查数据发布后的人口和人口结构变化进行调整。然而，在2025年夏天，唐纳德·特朗普总统敦促各州共和党人打破这一传统，在中期进行重新划区——这一推动最终得到了多个由共和党领导的州的加入。
Congressional maps are traditionally redrawn once a decade to adjust for population and demographic changes after national census data is released. In the summer of 2025, however, President Donald Trump pressed state Republicans to break with that tradition and redistrict mid-cycle—a push that multiple GOP-led states ultimately joined.
该党曾希望借助新地图在全国范围内增加多达10个席位。但政治专家告诉《时代》杂志，虽然重新划区对选举可能产生重大影响，但在此次情况下，它无法抵挡共和党候选人面临的挑战：即在中期选举前夕，美国人对特朗普及其政府的支持率历史性地低迷，专家们表示，这在周二选举到来之际，已经让许多美国人对共和党产生了反感。
The party had hoped to gain as many as 10 additional seats nationwide as a result of the new maps. But political experts tell TIME that although redistricting can have a large impact on elections, in this instance it was no match for the challenge Republican candidates faced amid Americans’ historically low approval of Trump and his Administration ahead of the midterms, which they say soured many Americans toward the Republican party by the time Tuesday’s elections rolled around.
“如果你的政党或你的总统极不受欢迎，重新划定边界所能做的也有限，”莱斯大学政治学教授马克·琼斯告诉《时代》杂志。“其中一个教训是，重新划定地图不足以拯救这些选区的共和党人。”以下是一些民主党获胜的地方，尽管这些地图被重新划定以有利于共和党——以及专家认为这些地图未能帮助共和党增加席位的原因。
“There's only so much that redrawing the boundaries can do if your party is or your President is exceptionally unpopular,” Mark Jones, a professor of politics at Rice University, tells TIME. “One of the lessons was redrawing the maps was not enough to save Republicans in these districts.”Here are some of the places where Democrats prevailed despite maps that were redrawn to favor Republicans—and why experts believe those maps failed to help the GOP add seats as they were intended to.
德克萨斯州 中期重新划区之争去年在德克萨斯州开始，当时共和党立法者重新划定了该州的国会选区地图，目标是为共和党增加多达五个席位。然而，当选举日到来时，民主党在几个重新划定的选区获胜。
Texas The mid-cycle redistricting battle started last year in Texas, where Republican lawmakers redrew the state’s congressional maps with the aim of netting the GOP up to five additional seats. When Election Day came, however, Democrats won in several redrawn districts.
琼斯表示，得克萨斯州的重新划区最终未能产生期望的结果，因为该计划是基于两年前关键选民群体的偏好制定的。
Jones says that redistricting in Texas ultimately failed to produce the hoped-for results because it was based on the preferences of a key voting population from two years ago.
许多选区的拉丁裔选民人口比例较高，他们助推了特朗普在2024年总统选举中的胜利，但在中期选举中似乎明显转向了民主党。
Many of the districts have high populations of Latino voters, who contributed to Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election but appear to have shifted notably toward Democrats in the midterms.
“得克萨斯州重新划区计划几乎全部基于这样一个前提：拉丁裔选民，尤其是拉丁裔选民，以及总体上其他选民，将会……像2024年的选民那样行事，”琼斯表示。他指出，自2025年以来发生了许多变化，使总统更不受欢迎，他引用了伊朗战争、特朗普的关税、他对经济的处理以及他激进的移民打压。这些政策要点，“加上总统好斗的本性和两极分化的言论与行动，”琼斯表示，“仅仅疏远了大量独立选民，这些选民在2024年，在这里得克萨斯州，曾投票支持总统。”
“Virtually the entire Texas redistricting plan was based on the premise that Latino voters, in particular, and other voters in general, would behave … like voters in 2024,” Jones says. He notes how much has changed since 2025 to make the President more unpopular, citing the war in Iran, Trump’s tariffs, his handling of the economy, and his aggressive immigration crackdown. These policy points, “combined with the president's combative nature and polarizing rhetoric and actions,” Jones says, “simply alienated a large number of independent voters who, in 2024, here in Texas, voted for the President.”
琼斯表示，得克萨斯州第9选区——他形容该选区几乎是“凭空创建”出来的一个新的共和党选区——体现了选民对特朗普广泛不满的影响。民主党人莱蒂西亚·古铁雷斯最终在该空缺席位的竞选中击败了共和党人亚历克斯·米勒，美联社周三报道了这一结果。
Jones says that Texas’ 9th District, which he describes as having been “created virtually out of whole cloth" into a new district for Republicans, exemplifies the impact of voters’ widespread disapproval of Trump. Democrat Leticia Gutierrez ultimately beat out Republican Alex Mealer in the race for the open seat, the AP called on Wednesday.
“这突出了这样一个事实：虽然重新划区可能会给某一政党带来优势，但最终选民才是做出裁决的人，”琼斯表示。
“This highlights the fact that while redistricting can potentially give one party an advantage, voters at the end of the day are the ones that render the verdict,” Jones says.
阿尔瓦罗·科拉尔是得克萨斯大学里奥格兰德谷分校的政治学教授，他告诉《时代》杂志，在得克萨斯州南部许多新划定的选区——例如第15选区，著名德克萨诺音乐家鲍比·普利多在那里击败了共和党众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁斯夺得了席位；以及第34选区，众议员比森特·冈萨雷斯在那里连任第六届——选民因新划定的地图而困惑哪些候选人代表他们。
Alvaro Corral, a professor of political science at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, tells TIME that in many newly redrawn districts in southern Texas—such as the 15th, where well-known Tejano musician Bobby Pulido flipped Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s seat, and the 34th, where Rep. Vicente Gonzalez secured re-election for a sixth term—voters were confused about which candidates represented them as a result of the newly drawn maps.
因此，他认为，这些地区的许多德克萨斯州选民之所以投出蓝票，是因为他们对那些超出本选区甚至本选票范围的、受欢迎的、类似名人的民主党候选人充满热情。这些候选人包括詹姆斯·塔拉里科，他当选为该州自1994年以来的第一位民主党参议员；普利多，他在音乐事业中获得过两次拉丁格莱美奖，科拉尔称他为“当地大名人”；以及来自里奥格兰德河谷的吉娜·希诺霍萨，她在州长选举中击败了州长格雷格·阿博特。
As a result, he contends, many Texans in those areas voted blue based on their enthusiasm for popular, celebrity-like Democratic candidates beyond their districts, or even their ballots. These candidates included James Talarico, who has been elected the state's first Democratic Senator since 1994; Pulido, who has won two Latin Grammys in his music career and is a “major local celebrity,” Corral says; and Gina Hinojosa, who hails from the Rio Grande Valley and took down Gov. Greg Abbott in the state's gubernatorial race.
科拉尔表示，随着这些“代际天才”般的候选人提升了对民主党的整体支持，再加上特朗普政府的支持率低迷，民主党的热情在多个选区中显现出来。
With “generational talents” like those candidates boosting overall support for Democrats, on top of low approval for the Trump Administration, Democratic enthusiasm shone through in multiple districts, Corral says.
俄亥俄州根据州法律要求，在2026年选举前重新绘制选区地图，制定了新的选区划分，使两个选区向共和党有利方向重塑。但美联社报道称，代表这两个选区的民主党议员在变动后仍成功连任。
, which was required under state law to redraw its maps ahead of the 2026 elections, enacted new district lines that reshaped two districts in Republicans’ favor. But the Democratic lawmakers representing both districts won re-election despite the change, the AP has called.
俄亥俄州共和党方面最大的失败在于他们选择的选区，辛辛那提大学政治学教授大卫·尼文对《时代》周刊表示。
“The biggest failure on the Republicans' part in Ohio was their choice of districts,” David Niven, a professor of politics at the University of Cincinnati, tells TIME.
共和党将目光锁定在包括辛辛那提部分地区的第一选区，以及涵盖该州西北部大部分地区的第九选区。
Republicans zoned in on Districts One, which includes part of Cincinnati, and Nine, which encompasses most of the northwestern portion of the state.
尼文认为，在第一选区，共和党人在富裕郊区县的共和党选民中失去了“大量阵地”，这些选民因特朗普及其政策而与该党决裂。“这些过去是共和党的基本盘，现在正在流失，”尼文说。“这表明共和党人在县环状地区失去控制，存在一些危险迹象。”
Niven argues that in District One, Republicans lost a “tremendous amount of ground” with affluent Republicans in suburban counties who have disassociated from the party as a result of Trump and his policies. “These used to be the Republican base, and it's slipping on them,” Niven says. “It shows some dangerous signs for Republicans that they've lost their grip on those ring counties.”
与此同时，尼文断言，在第九选区，现任民主党人深受喜爱，而共和党人未能培养出有竞争力的候选人。“他们费心重新划定选区地图，却不愿费心寻找一个可行的候选人，”他说。“你可以划出有利的选区，但不能让候选人去竞选。”众议员格雷格·兰兹曼最终保住了第一选区的席位，众议员马西·卡普特也保住了她在第九选区的席位。
In District Nine, meanwhile, Niven asserts that incumbent Democrats were well liked and Republicans failed to produce a competitive candidate. “They went to the trouble of redrawing the map, and then didn't go to the trouble of finding a viable candidate,” he says. “You can draw a favorable district, but you can't make a candidate run for it.”Rep. Greg Landsman ultimately held onto his seat in the 1st District, and Rep. Marcy Kaptur held onto hers in the 9th.
尼文认为，除了特朗普的行为，包括对伊朗的战争以及他对经济的控制之外，俄亥俄州选民在这些重新划定的选区中也远离了共和党，原因是共和党候选人未能在数据中心议题上与选民保持一致。
Niven contends that in addition to Trump’s actions, including the war in Iran and his hold on the economy, Ohioans also strayed from Republicans in those redrawn districts because GOP candidates failed to align with voters on the topic of data centers.
“在很多选区，数据中心被视为一种明显而迫在眉睫的危险，”他说。“在俄亥俄州，共和党人在这场讨论中处于劣势，而民主党人则更多地与为社区利益而战联系在一起。”北卡罗来纳州“如果你想找一个共和党在重新划分选区时越界并适得其反的例子，北卡罗来纳州可能就是典型案例，”杜克大学政治学教授阿舍·希尔德布兰德对《时代》杂志说。
“In a lot of these districts, data centers are regarded as a clear and present danger,” he says. “Republicans were on the losing side of that conversation in Ohio, where Democrats were much more associated with fighting for the community's interest.”North Carolina“If you're looking for an example of Republican overreach on redistricting backfiring, North Carolina is probably Exhibit A,” Asher Hildebrand, a professor of political science at Duke University, says to TIME.
北卡罗来纳州由共和党控制的州议会去年批准了新选区地图，重新划定了由民主党人唐·戴维斯代表的第一选区，以提高共和党翻转该席位的机会。
North Carolina’s GOP-controlled legislature approved new maps last year that redrew the state’s 1st District, represented by Democrat Don Davis, to improve Republicans’ chances of flipping the seat.
但美联社已预测，戴维斯在该选区击败了共和党人劳丽·巴克豪特，锁定了另一个任期。
But Davis has defeated Republican Laurie Buckhout in the district to clinch another term, the AP has called.
希尔德布兰德表示，生活成本是北卡罗来纳州选民最关心的因素，这最终使他们远离了特朗普及其政党，正如全国其他关键选举一样。
Hildebrand says that the cost of living was the most important factor for North Carolina voters, which ultimately led them away from Trump and his party, as in other key races around the country.
“对我而言，昨晚的奥卡姆剃刀式解释是：特朗普告诉美国人假装他就在选票上，而他们确实这么做了，”希尔德布兰德说。
“My sort of Occam's razor explanation for last night is that Trump told Americans to pretend he was on the ballot, and boy, did they ever,” Hildebrand says.
“他们很生气，”他谈到美国选民时说，包括那些过去投过共和党票的人。“特朗普承诺给他们带来缓解，却没有兑现。他们把这种不满发泄到了共和党人身上。”
“They're pissed off,” he says of American voters, even those who have voted Republican in the past. “Trump promised them relief; he failed to deliver. They took that out on Republicans.”
亚拉巴马州 选举前夕，最高法院允许亚拉巴马州共和党人恢复2023年的国会选区划分图，这些地图对共和党更有利，但此前曾因种族歧视而被推翻，因为其中只包含一个黑人占多数的选区。
Alabama Ahead of the midterms, the Supreme Court allowed Alabama Republicans to restore 2023 congressional maps that were more favorable to Republicans but had previously been struck down as racially discriminatory, as they included only one majority-Black district.
这些地图重塑了该州第二选区，该选区由民主党众议员舒马里·菲格斯代表，增强了共和党翻盘的机会。
The maps reshaped the state’s Second District, represented by Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, bolstering Republicans’ chances of flipping the seat.
但美联社报道称，菲格斯尽管选区发生了变化，仍在自己的选区获胜，击败了共和党候选人雷特·马奎斯。阿拉巴马大学政治学教授理查德·福丁表示，这有三个原因。
But Figures prevailed in his district despite the change, the AP has called, defeating Republican Rhett Marques. Richard Fording, a professor of political science at the University of Alabama, says there were three reasons for this.
福丁说，第一个原因是，该选区“并非被划定以给共和党带来很大优势”。按照新地图，该选区黑人选民的比例从接近该选区人口的一半下降到40%，仍保持了强劲的代表性。福丁还说，西班牙裔选民的比例略有上升，这给菲格斯带来了支持率的提升。
The first, Fording says, is that the district “wasn't drawn to give Republicans a very big advantage.”With the new maps, the percentage of Black voters in the district dropped from nearly half of the district's population to 40%, maintaining strong representation. And the percentage of Hispanic voters increased slightly, Fording says, adding that this gave Figures a bump in support.
福丁说，对共和党重划选区努力起反作用的第二个因素是时间。亚拉巴马州的选区地图在6月发生变化，是在5月初选之后，这要求按照新边界重新投票。
The second factor that worked against Republicans redistricting efforts was their timing, Fording says. Alabama’s maps changed in June, after the May primaries, which required a re-vote under the lines.
“疯狂，”福丁说，并指出许多选民对共和党人在制定新选区地图后感到不满。“你这就好比雪上加霜，让人们出来投票，然后又让他们再出来投票一次。”
“It was crazy,” Fording says, noting that many voters weren’t happy with Republicans after they enacted the new maps. “You add just sort of insult to injury by making people go out and vote and then having them come out and vote again.”
福丁说，菲格斯胜出的第三个原因，是专家所称的“阿拉巴马因素”。
The third reason Figures came out on top, Fording says, is what the expert refers to as the “Alabama factor.”
“阿拉巴马是投票权运动的摇篮，”他说，并提及他所在州在《投票权法案》通过前的民权运动活动。“人们为此项立法付出了生命。而这项立法，当然，是我们这里多数少数族裔选区的基础，包括第二选区。”在最高法院作出路易斯安那州诉卡莱案判决后，该判决削弱了《投票权法案》中旨在防止绘制选举地图时出现种族歧视的一项条款，路易斯安那州和其他州——包括阿拉巴马州——着手取消多数少数族裔选区。福丁说，作为回应，阿拉巴马人在中期选举前奋力动员黑人选民支持民主党。
“Alabama is the cradle of the voting rights movement,” he says, referencing the activity of the Civil Rights Movement in his state leading up to the passage of the Voting Rights Act. “People literally died for that legislation. And that legislation, of course, was the foundation for the majority-minority districts we had here, including District Two.”Following the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which weakened a section of the Voting Rights Act intended to protect against racial discrimination in drawing electoral maps, Louisiana and other states—including Alabama—moved to eliminate majority-minority districts. Fording says that in response, Alabamians fought hard leading up to the midterms to mobilize Black voters for Democrats.
“夺走那个多数，重新划定选区，试图基本上把肖马里·菲格斯换掉，换成一个共和党人，我认为这尤其激怒了许多民主党人和黑人选民，”福丁说。
“Taking away that majority, redrawing that district in an attempt to essentially remove Shomari Figures and replace him with a Republican, I think especially angered a lot of Democrats and Black voters,” Fording says.
福丁补充说，对特朗普及其政党的更广泛不满也促成了民主党在深红州阿拉巴马州获得了比平时更大的吸引力。“肯定存在一种全州范围的、普遍的反共和党效应，”他说。
Fording adds that broader discontent with Trump and his party also contributed to greater-than-usual Democratic appeal in deep-red Alabama. “There's definitely just a statewide, kind of across the board anti-Republican effect,” he says.
共和党人希望根据今年春天重新划定的选区地图，为本党争取多达四个席位。
Republicans hoped to net their party up to four more seats under maps redrawn this spring.
但在第十四选区，现任民主党众议员卡西·卡斯特尔击败了挑战者迈克·贝尔特兰；民主党人皮娅·丹迪亚在第二十二选区赢得了一个空缺席位，击败了共和党人凯西·阿斯卡；现任议员贾里德·莫斯科威茨在第二十五选区击败了共和党人斯科特·辛格。
But in District Fourteen, incumbent Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor defeated challenger Mike Beltran; Democrat Pia Dandiya won an open seat over Republican Casey Askar in District Twenty-Two; and incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz won in District Twenty-Five over Republican Scott Singer.
与此同时，共和党瞄准的第四个民主党持有的选区——第九选区——也在进行一场极其胶着的竞选。截至周五下午，在99%的选票已计票的情况下，现任众议员达伦·索托以不到一个百分点的优势领先共和党人丹·格林。美联社尚未宣布该竞选结果。
An extremely tight race is meanwhile playing out in the fourth Democratic-held district Republicans targeted, District Nine, where incumbent Rep. Darren Soto is up by less than one percentage point against Republican Dan Green as of Friday afternoon with 99% of votes counted. The Associated Race has not yet called the contest.
中央佛罗里达大学政治学教授奥布里·朱埃特告诉《时代》周刊，民主党能够在选区重划后获胜，需要“完美的事件交汇”：即“在中期选举中，一位极不受欢迎的总统、四名优秀候选人，以及……开展一场良好竞选所需的资金”。他说，对特朗普政策的不满以及物价上涨，很可能是推动这些选区民主党投票率提升的“驱动力”，但他也指出，外部捐助者在共和党候选人身上的投入并不多。“归根结底，我认为共和党人在决定投资方向时确实捉襟见肘，”他说。
Aubrey Jewett, a professor of politics at the University of Central Florida, tells TIME that it took “a perfect confluence of events” for Democrats to prevail despite the redrawn district lines: “an extremely unpopular President in a midterm election, four good candidates, and money … to run a good campaign.”He says that dissatisfaction with Trump’s policies and rising prices were likely the “driving force” that led to higher Democratic turnout in those districts, but also notes that outside donors didn’t invest as much in the GOP candidates. “Ultimately, I think Republicans just really got stretched thin when it came to where to make investments,” he says.
朱埃特还认为，这些选区的共和党挑战者相对于其民主党对手来说较为薄弱。例如，朱埃特表示，丹迪亚正好处于“既能激发进步派基本盘，又不会吓跑温和建制派民主党人的甜点位”。他补充说，许多独立选民在这些选区也转向了民主党。
Jewett also believes the Republican challengers in those districts were weak compared to their Democratic opponents. Dandiya, for instance, hit the “sweet spot of still exciting the progressive base while not scaring off the moderate establishment Democrats,” Jewett says. He adds that many independent voters also swung toward Democrats in those districts.
佛罗里达大学政治学教授丹尼尔·史密斯补充说，共和党在因使用过去选举数据而重新划分的选区中失利，这些数据不再反映选民情绪。“选民希望在国会中对总统形成制约，”他说。史密斯补充说，共和党在旨在翻转民主党席位的重新划分中，也将一些可靠的保守派选民稀释到那些更蓝的选区，从而危及了该州已有的20个席位，专家将此归结为“一个词：贪婪。”佛罗里达湾岸大学政治学教授桑德拉·帕维尔卡告诉《时代》杂志，重新划分选区在选举中只能起到有限的作用。
Daniel Smith, a political science professor at the University of Florida, adds that Republicans lost in districts that were redrawn due to using data from past elections that no longer reflects voters’ sentiments. “Voters wanted to have a check in Congress against the President,” he says. Smith adds that in redistricting with the aim of flipping Democratic seats, Republicans also jeopardized some of the 20 seats they already held in the state by diluting reliably conservative voters into those bluer districts, something the expert chalked up to “one word: greed.”Sandra Pavelka, a political science professor at Florida Gulf Coast University, tells TIME that redistricting can only do so much in an election.
“选举暴露了重新划分选区的一大局限：改变选区边界不能保证选民会支持划分他们的政党，”她说。
“The election exposed a major limitation of redistricting: changing district boundaries cannot guarantee that voters will support the party that drew them,” she says.
“这些尤其具有启示性，”她补充说，指的是共和党在佛罗里达州瞄准的四个选区，“因为新选区在2024年投给了特朗普——在某些情况下，差距相当大。”
“These are particularly revealing,” she adds of the four districts Republicans targeted in Florida, “because the new districts had voted for Trump in 2024—in some cases, by substantial margins.”