解读以色列大选结果有两种方式。一种是将其视为总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡政府的失败。在120席的议会（克内塞特）中，内塔尼亚胡阵营原本拥有稳固多数，如今已缩减为仅53席的少数派。相比之下，反内塔尼亚胡阵营的议员掌握了67席。
There are two ways to read the results of the Israeli elections. One way would be to see them as a defeat for the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. From holding a solid majority in the 120-member Knesset, the Netanyahu bloc has been reduced to a minority of 53 members. Anti-Netanyahu lawmakers, by contrast, hold 67 seats.
如果以色列是一个民主国家，我们本应看到类似于今年匈牙利、巴西和塞尔维亚出现的庆祝场面，当时具有非民主倾向的政治势力遭到了挫败。但以色列不是民主国家，内塔尼亚胡也不一定输了。
Had Israel been a democracy, we would have seen scenes of celebration similar to the ones we saw this year in Hungary, Brazil and Serbia, where political forces with undemocratic tendencies were defeated. But Israel is not a democracy, and Netanyahu was not necessarily defeated.
第二种、更相关的解读方式，要求承认以色列的种族隔离本质，并透过这一棱镜来看待选举算术。在这种情况下，内塔尼亚胡赢了，因为他在议会中获得了53席——比反内塔尼亚胡的犹太阵营多出5席。
The second, more relevant way of reading the results of the Israeli election would necessitate accepting the apartheid nature of Israel and seeing the electoral arithmetic through that prism. In this case, Netanyahu won because he secured 53 seats in the Knesset – five more than the anti-Netanyahu Jewish bloc.
组建政府需要至少获得61名议会议员的支持。内塔尼亚胡唯一的途径，是说服反内塔尼亚胡阵营中的政党或议员加入其阵营，这也是他过去多次成功做到的。与获得19席的巴勒斯坦政党合作，对他来说根本不在考虑范围内。
To form a government, a bloc needs to have the support of at least 61 members of the Knesset. The only way Netanyahu can do it is by enticing parties or lawmakers from the anti-Netanyahu bloc to join his bloc, as he has succeeded in doing many times in the past. Working with Palestinian parties, which secured 19 seats, is out of the question for him.
反内塔尼亚胡阵营组建政府的显而易见的路径，是组建一个包含两个巴勒斯坦政党的联盟。但这将意味着挑战以色列的种族隔离制度。犹太反内塔尼亚胡阵营的主要领导人，包括加迪·艾森科特，已承诺绝不这样做。
The obvious path for government formation for the anti-Netanyahu bloc would be to form a coalition – one that would include the two Palestinian parties. But to do so would mean to challenge Israeli apartheid. The main leaders of the Jewish anti-Netanyahu bloc, including Gadi Eisenkot, have promised not to do so under any circumstances.
还有一种选择：寻求宗教正统派政党的支持，这些政党迄今一直属于内塔尼亚胡阵营。要获得他们的支持，反内塔尼亚胡阵营必须承诺豁免宗教正统派青年的兵役义务，并保证为其宗教学习中心提供资金。
There is another option: seeking the support of the religious Orthodox parties, which have so far been part of the Netanyahu bloc. To secure their backing, the anti-Netanyahu bloc would have to promise to exempt religious Orthodox youth from military service and guarantee funding for their learning centres.
然而，艾森科特的主要竞选承诺是强制年轻哈雷迪犹太人入伍。因此这种情形不太可能出现，但在政治领域，永远不要说“绝无可能”。
However, Eisenkot’s main election promise was forcing young Haredi Jews into the army. So this is not a very likely scenario, but in politics, never say never.
还有一种选择是由反内塔尼亚胡阵营的领军人物与内塔尼亚胡实行某种轮换制的“团结政府”。问题在于，根据几年前通过的一项法律，只要内塔尼亚胡仍是正在进行的审判中的被告，他就不能担任部长；他的联盟确保了这项荒谬的立法不适用于总理职位。
There is also the option of a “unity government” led by some sort of rotation between the leading figures of the anti-Netanyahu bloc and Netanyahu. The problem here is that, according to a law passed a few years ago, as long as Netanyahu is still a defendant in an ongoing trial, he cannot serve as a minister; his coalition made sure that the legislation ridiculously would not apply to a prime minister.
鉴于内塔尼亚胡的贪腐审判注定将拖延很长时间，轮换制将使内塔尼亚胡无法在艾森科特担任总理的政府中任职。这意味着他会要求先担任轮值总理，并在轮换期结束后保留让政府垮台的选项。
Given that Netanyahu’s corruption trial is destined to go on for a very long time, the rotation would make it impossible for Netanyahu to be part of a government under Eisenkot as prime minister. That means he would demand to hold the rotating premiership first and leave open the option to collapse the government once his rotation is over.
内塔尼亚胡以前就这么干过。2020年，他毫不犹豫地撕毁了与本尼·甘茨的轮换协议，后者曾天真地相信两年后自己会成为总理。这导致了新的大选，内塔尼亚胡赢得了胜利。
Netanyahu has already done that before. In 2020, without any hesitation, he broke a rotation agreement with Benny Gantz, who had naively believed that after two years he would be the prime minister. This resulted in new elections, which Netanyahu won.
最后，一种非常可能的情形是，两大阵营都无法组建政府，这将意味着六个月后举行新的大选。内塔尼亚胡及其政府将继续留任直到新的投票，尽管权力会受到更多限制。
Finally, a very possible scenario is that neither of the two blocs would be able to form a government, which would mean new elections in six months. Netanyahu and his government would remain in office until the new polls, albeit with more limited authority.
这将给他们机会重燃与伊朗和真主党的战争，并在加沙地带和约旦河西岸继续其暴力政策，试图吸引更多公众支持并赢得大选。
This would give them the opportunity to reignite a war with Iran and Hezbollah and continue with their violent policies in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank in an attempt to attract more public support and win the elections.
这是内塔尼亚胡的首选方案，因为他在10月27日大选中的相对失利，很大程度上归因于以色列巴勒斯坦选民空前的动员，以及大量居住在国外的较为自由的犹太裔以色列人回国投票。
This is the preferred option for Netanyahu because his relative defeat in the October 27 elections had a lot to do with the unprecedented galvanisation among the Palestinian voters in Israel and the more liberal Jewish Israelis living abroad who came back home in huge numbers to vote.
这些可能的情景只讲了故事的一部分，不足以完全理解选举结果对以色列、巴勒斯坦人和该地区意味着什么。以下是从结果中应得出的更重要的结论：第一个结论关乎以色列境内巴勒斯坦公民的未来。如果不久举行新的选举，他们仍有可能大量出来投票。但如果他们再次被其他政党忽视和边缘化，他们将永远不会再尝试。
These possible scenarios tell only part of the story and are not enough to fully understand what the election results mean for Israel, the Palestinians and the region. Here are the more important conclusions one should draw from the results: The first pertains to the future of the Palestinian citizens of Israel. They still could turn out to vote in large numbers if new elections are held soon.
在这种情况下，该群体的领导层将难以继续推迟一项战略决定：选择以色列境内巴勒斯坦公民属于哪个政治空间——是以色列的，还是巴勒斯坦的？
But if they are once more ignored and sidelined by the other political parties, they will never try it again.
直到今天，尽管以色列政治体制存在种族主义、种族隔离倾向以及针对巴勒斯坦人的犯罪政策，他们仍给了它一个机会。巴勒斯坦政党向以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格推荐艾森科特担任总理，后者现已责成他组建政府。
In this case, it would be difficult for the leadership of this community to continue to delay a strategic decision: choosing which political space Palestinian citizens of Israel belong to – the Israeli or the Palestinian one? Until today, they have given a chance to the Israeli political system despite its racism, apartheid tendencies and criminal policies towards Palestinians.
如果我可以大胆预测——这只是预测——反内塔尼亚胡阵营不会与巴勒斯坦政党进行实质性接触。因此，其传递的信息将是：以色列境内的巴勒斯坦人不是以色列政治领域的合法参与者。
Palestinian parties recommended Eisenkot for the premiership to President Isaac Herzog, who has now tasked him with forming a government. If I can venture a prediction – and it is only a prediction – the anti-Netanyahu bloc would not engage meaningfully with the Palestinian parties.
如果我判断有误，这将是以色列和巴勒斯坦历史上一个不可思议且具有变革性的时刻，但似乎极少有希望出现这种发展。
Its message, therefore, will be that the Palestinians of Israel are not legitimate players in the Israeli political field.
从我们目前所处的境地，还能汲取其他教训，前提是要认识到这是以色列历史上一个极其动荡的时刻。
If I am wrong, this would be an incredible and transformative moment in the history of both Israel and Palestine, but there seems to be very little hope for such a development.
首先也是最重要的是，无论谁组建以色列下一届政府，都将继续在加沙实施渐进式种族灭绝，在约旦河西岸实施强化的种族清洗，并对该地区采取侵略性政策。这些政策与以往一样，只有当地区和国际社会向以色列传递明确信号，表明此类政策将付出代价，才能被制止或约束。
There are other lessons we can learn from where we are now with the knowledge that this is a very volatile moment in the history of Israel. The first and most important one is that whoever forms the next government of Israel will continue the incremental genocide in Gaza, the intensified ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and the aggressive policies towards the region.
第二个教训是，以色列犹太社会的分裂与以往一样深刻，以至于它不可能维持稳定的政治体制、繁荣的经济，以及对地区和世界的积极战略。
These policies as before can only be stopped or tamed by the region and the international community sending a clear message to Israel that there will be a price tag attached to such policies.
第三个教训是，以色列的国际孤立将因这一轨迹而加剧，包括世界各地年轻犹太人（包括美国的年轻犹太人）继续与犹太复国主义保持距离。
The second lesson is that the Israeli Jewish society is as deeply divided as ever, to the point that it is impossible for it to maintain a stable political system, a thriving economy and a positive strategy towards the region and the world.
最后也是最重要的是，这可能会影响全球关于犹太复国主义的讨论。英国绿党将犹太复国主义定义为种族主义的举措——尽管目前是个例外，且遭到广泛谴责——将随着时间的推移而获得合理性。
The third lesson is that Israel’s international isolation will increase as a result of this trajectory, including the continued dissociation from Zionism among young Jews around the world, including in the United States. Finally and most importantly, this can have an impact on the global discussion about Zionism.
这些选举和未来的发展清楚表明，在当前以色列政治中，犹太复国主义意味着将以色列巴勒斯坦公民排除在政治之外——首先是忽视他们，未来很可能剥夺他们的投票权。此外，国际社会的许多人会将犹太复国主义一词与以色列就种族灭绝、种族清洗和种族隔离达成的共识政策联系起来。
The move by the Green Party in Britain to define Zionism as racism – despite being currently an exception and widely condemned – will gain validity with time. These elections and future developments are making clear that Zionism in the current Israeli politics means the exclusion of Palestinian citizens of Israel from politics – first by ignoring them and quite possibly in the future by denying them the right to vote Moreover, many in the international community will associate the term Zionism with a consensual Israeli policy of genocide, ethnic cleansing and apartheid.
短期前景令人担忧。以色列选举传递的总体信息是，该国未来的政策将继续威胁被占领领土的巴勒斯坦人、以色列巴勒斯坦公民，以及黎巴嫩南部和叙利亚人民的生命。该地区将出现更多不稳定。
The outlook in the short term is worrying. The overall message from the Israeli elections is that the future policies of the state will continue to threaten the lives of the Palestinians in occupied territory, Palestinian citizens of Israel, and the people of southern Lebanon and Syria. There will be more instability in the region.
不过，从长远来看，尽管目前情况糟糕，锡安主义项目的根本裂痕将会扩大，这可能导致其覆灭。人们只能希望，这也将开启一个有利于所有生活在历史巴勒斯坦及该地区的人们的政治现实的开始。这篇评论文章的一个版本最初由半岛电视台阿拉伯语频道发表。
In the long run, however, as bad as it is, the fundamental cracks in the Zionist project will widen, which might lead to its demise. One can only hope this will also lead to the beginning of a political reality that would benefit everyone who lives in historical Palestine and the region. A version of this oped was first published by Al Jazeera Arabic