Canada heads to the UN's annual climate summit, COP31, defending its fossil fuel expansion at home while seeking influence on clean energy, climate finance and the global transition away from fossil fuels.

With the U.S. retreating from international climate diplomacy, Canada has an opening to play a larger role in the negotiations. But experts say recent climate-policy rollbacks at home could complicate its efforts to do so.

"We feel like Canada's credibility is on the line," said Pratishta Singh, international diplomacy manager at Climate Action Network Canada, a non-governmental group.

"Canada cannot position itself as a climate leader internationally while … doubling down on fossil fuel infrastructure." The UN summit runs from Nov. 9-20 in the resort town of Antalya, Turkey. It is the first since the U.S., under President Donald Trump, pulled out of the Paris Agreement on climate change, although his administration largely boycotted the previous COP30 summit as well.

That withdrawal could leave more room for so-called middle powers such as Canada, which has historically supported international climate diplomacy and co-operation.

Canada does not appear to be shying away from the UN process despite its recent climate-policy rollbacks. A significant diplomatic contingent, led by federal Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin, will attend COP31, along with a dedicated Canada Pavilion hosting side events involving government, think tanks and NGO groups.

"I do think that there will be some heat from groups about the stepbacks on some of the climate policies that we've seen over the past year. So, I think it'll be up and down," said Philip Gass, who leads research on Canadian energy at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, a climate and energy policy think tank. "Depending what the topic of the day is, it might be a little bit rocky for Canada."

Fossil fuel transition Brazil, which hosted last year's climate conference in the Amazonian city of Belém, proposed a roadmap for countries to transition away from fossil fuels. The plan would help countries establish targets to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels and replace them with clean sources of energy.

But reaching an agreement among the more than 180 countries proved elusive. Decisions at UN climate summits require consensus among participating nations, and a smaller coalition of countries willing to move ahead, including Canada, met in Colombia in April to discuss the issue separately.

What this coalition of countries now wants is concrete plans to transition away from fossil fuels, not just resolutions or promises. They want countries to set specific dates and targets for ending the use of oil, gas and coal, along with a formal mechanism through which developing countries can apply for financial or technical assistance to aid their own transitions.

This could put particular pressure on countries such as Canada, which has a large oil and gas sector.

Gass says the federal Canadian Sustainable Jobs Act, passed by the Justin Trudeau government in 2024, is "aligned with a lot of the principles of just transition" away from fossil fuels. But Canada's continued expansion of fossil fuel production complicates its position, he said.

"It would be very hard, for example, for Canada to look to lead a process being a fossil fuel producer that has expanded fossil fuel production this year," Gass said.

"That doesn't mean they can't be constructively involved in the discussion." Singh said Canada needs to match its words at international conferences with "serious domestic implementation" of the sustainable jobs law to be taken seriously by other countries.

Earlier this year, the federal government released a strategy that was criticized by the NDP and labour experts for not doing enough for workers. The sustainable jobs strategy acknowledges that global efforts to reduce emissions will reshape industries, and the government says Canada must ensure the shift improves job quality and supports growth.

Clean electricity Canada can point to its investments in clean electricity as evidence of its climate ambitions.

The federal government announced major investments in electricity production in the budget released last week. It has now proposed more than $100 billion in various commitments to boost clean electricity projects over the next three decades.

Julia Levin, who studies national climate policy at the advocacy group Environmental Defence, said the funding announcements were "positive, but underwhelming." She pointed out that the government has weakened federal clean electricity regulations, allowing more electricity to be generated from natural gas, a fossil fuel.

But Canada's recent investments, including a major push for nuclear energy, could give it some clout at COP31. The summit's presidency wants countries to work toward an ambitious new electrification target: increasing the global share of final energy demand met by electricity from just over 20 per cent today to 35 per cent by 2035.

Meeting that target would require countries to significantly scale up clean electricity production, which aligns with what Canada is trying to do.

Climate finance Finance for developing countries, a longtime sticking point in climate negotiations, has become an even bigger problem since the U.S. largely shut down its foreign aid agency. Aid budgets have declined in other high-income countries as well.

Canada announced about $5.9 billion in climate finance over the next five years in the spring economic update earlier this year, with a goal of mobilizing a total of $13 billion using private sources.

"Canada is one of the few Global North countries who have actually pledged, post 2025, international climate finance," Singh said.

But details about how that funding will flow still need to be announced, which Singh said she hopes will happen at COP31.

The federal government has said one of its top priorities at the conference will be to "mobilize climate finance at scale from public and private sources."