唐纳德·特朗普擅长把自己的政治主张浓缩进四个字母里。他的支持者热衷于戴印有MAGA字样的红色棒球帽。在他的政党在中期选举中惨败后，他在社交媒体上发布了一张人们熟悉的帽子的照片，上面印着新口号：VETO（否决）。
DONALD TRUMP has a knack for fitting his politics into four letters. His supporters relish wearing red baseball caps emblazoned with MAGA. After his party got thumped in the mid-term elections, he posted a picture on social media of the familiar cap bearing a new slogan: VETO.
这是否预示着什么？也许吧。随着民主党人即将控制国会两院，僵局似乎不可避免。但特朗普也期待达成交易。“经过几个月的否决之后，他们会打来电话，”他这样预测民主党的举动，“然后我们会合作。”这种两党讨价还价将与过去两年不同。在共和党控制国会的情况下，特朗普通过了一项大规模的税收与支出法案，该法案不成比例地惠及富人，并推高了预计赤字。
A sign of things to come? Perhaps. With Democrats set to control both chambers of Congress, gridlock might seem inevitable. Yet Mr Trump also expects to make deals. “After a couple of months of vetoes, they’ll call,” he predicted of Democrats. “And we’ll work together.”Such bipartisan bargaining would be a departure from the past two years. With Republicans controlling Congress, Mr Trump passed a sweeping tax-and-spending law that disproportionately benefited the rich and swelled projected deficits.
从关税到驱逐出境等许多其他事项，都是通过他仍然掌握的总统权力来实施的。那么，在余下的几年里，“特朗普经济学”会是什么样子？
Much else, from tariffs to deportations, was enacted through presidential powers that he still holds. What, then, will Trumponomics look like in its remaining years?
在财政政策方面，两个迫在眉睫的最后期限可能提供谈判机会。政府拨款将于12月11日到期，但临时延期可能把下一份预算协议留给即将上任的民主党国会。债务上限问题如果不及早解决，可能在明年晚些时候给民主党人提供更大的筹码，届时若无法达成协议，就可能面临违约风险。特朗普在第一个任期内就这两个问题都与民主党人达成了协议，有时还站在他们一边，反对共和党国会领袖。
On fiscal policy, two looming deadlines could provide opportunities for negotiation. Government funding expires on December 11th, but a temporary extension could leave the next budget deal to the incoming Democratic Congress. The debt ceiling, if not resolved early, could provide even greater leverage for Democrats later next year, when failure to reach an agreement would risk a default. Mr Trump struck deals with Democrats on both issues in his first term, at times siding with them against Republican congressional leaders.
任何财政妥协都可能代价高昂。特朗普希望大幅增加军费开支。他提出的2027年预算案建议国防开支增加约40%，尽管这一完整请求极不可能得到满足。与此同时，民主党人希望恢复已于2025年底到期的医疗保健税收减免，并在其他方面减轻家庭的经济负担。众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯将扩大儿童税收抵免和劳动所得税抵免列为优先事项。
Any fiscal bargain could prove expensive. Mr Trump wants a vast increase in military spending. His budget for 2027 proposed a roughly 40% increase in defence spending, although the full request is highly unlikely to be met. Democrats, meanwhile, want to restore tax breaks for health care that expired at the end of 2025 and otherwise ease financial burdens on households. Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader, has prioritised expanding the child tax credit and earned-income tax credit.
罗希特·库马尔曾是米奇·麦康奈尔的副幕僚长，现任职于普华永道。他说，在传统的“大炮与黄油”之争中，美国一贯的答案是“两者都多花钱”。他表示，五角大楼每多获得一美元，民主党人就可能要求国内项目获得同等增幅。
In the old guns-versus-butter debate, America’s usual answer is to “spend more on both”, says Rohit Kumar, a former deputy chief of staff to Mitch McConnell, now at PwC. For every additional dollar the Pentagon receives, Democrats could demand a matching increase for domestic programmes, he says.
所有这些都会加剧赤字。保险公司安联旗下的安联研究预计，2027年财政宽松幅度约为GDP的0.2%。额外的要求可能包括推迟原定的医疗补助（面向穷人的医疗保险）和食品券削减计划。这将增加多少赤字，部分取决于其他方面能否通过预算调整来抵消。库马尔建议，民主党人可能会试图限制对数据中心投资的税收减免，或对AI行业征收新税。
All of this would add to the deficit. Allianz Research, an arm of the insurer, expects a fiscal loosening of about 0.2% of GDP in 2027. Additional demands could include delays to planned cuts in Medicaid (health care for the poor) and food stamps. How much red ink this adds will depend partly on offsetting budget tweaks elsewhere. Democrats could try to restrict tax breaks for data-centre investment or impose a new levy on the AI industry, suggests Mr Kumar.
妥协也可能影响特朗普对美国AI繁荣的雄心。过去两年，特朗普力挺数据中心，在监管上采取“放手不管”的态度。但民主党人赢得了得克萨斯、佐治亚、俄亥俄等州的州长选举，他们承诺暂停新建数据中心或施加其他限制。研究公司Cleanview的数据显示，支持此类措施的州长在计划数据中心容量占41%的州获胜。但认为这些州长希望永久禁止数据中心将是错误的。中间偏左智库“第三条路”的加布·霍维茨指出，大多数人只是希望数据中心为用电支付更多费用。
Compromise may also shape Mr Trump’s ambitions for America’s AI boom. In the past two years Mr Trump championed data centres, taking a “let-it-rip” approach to regulation. But Democrats won governor races in Texas, Georgia, Ohio and elsewhere promising pauses or other limits on new construction. Governors who back such measures won in states that account for 41% of planned data-centre capacity, according to Cleanview, a research firm. But it would be wrong to assume these governors want permanent bans on data centres. Most merely want them to pay more for their electricity, notes Gabe Horwitz of Third Way, a centre-left think-tank.
这可能为特朗普先生敲开另一笔交易的大门。一个有希望的领域是许可证改革。一项由总统支持的两党法案将加快发电厂和输电线路的建设，同时要求大型数据中心承担更多其对电网造成的成本。该法案在1月前通过的可能性已经渺茫，一些民主党人现在希望在选举获胜后争取进一步让步。但仍然可以想象出一项交易，使建设更加容易，同时保护家庭免受更高电费的影响。
That could open the door to another bargain for Mr Trump. One promising area is permitting reform. A bipartisan bill backed by the president would speed up construction of power plants and transmission lines, while requiring large data centres to shoulder more of the costs they impose on the grid. Its chances of passing before January have dimmed, with some Democrats now hoping to extract further concessions after their electoral victories. But it is still possible to imagine a deal that makes it easier to build while shielding households from higher electricity bills.
即使特朗普先生无需国会即可行动，他也可能面临新的限制。他混乱的关税运动已经面临法律挑战。民主党人现在正准备进行国会调查和立法，以进一步限制他的贸易权力。如果没有足够的共和党支持来推翻总统否决，这些努力可能收效甚微。然而，更大的限制可能是公众舆论：近三分之二的中期选举选民表示，他的关税损害了经济。
Even where Mr Trump can act without Congress, he may face new constraints. His chaotic tariff campaign already faces legal challenges. Democrats are now preparing congressional investigations and legislation to curb his trade powers further. These efforts may achieve little without enough Republican support to override a presidential veto. Yet a bigger constraint could be public opinion: nearly two-thirds of midterm voters said his tariffs had hurt the economy.
金斯宾塞律师事务所前美国贸易官员瑞安·梅耶斯表示，这可能会鼓励特朗普减免一些关税。他可能在关于“第301条”关税的待决法院裁决中找到一个台阶，这些关税本应惩罚不公平贸易的国家。
That might encourage Mr Trump to ease some duties, says Ryan Majerus, a former American trade official now at King & Spalding, a law firm. He could find an off-ramp in a pending court ruling on “Section 301” tariffs, which are supposed to punish countries for unfair trade.
特朗普先生的操作空间还可能以其他方式收窄。过去他多次敦促美联储降低利率。现在，民主党控制的参议院可能阻止他在美联储董事会安插另一位忠诚者，从而加强中央银行的独立性。公众压力也可能鼓励特朗普软化其移民打压政策。在接受CBS电视台采访时，特朗普承认他的驱逐政策“可能太严厉了”，并表示他希望与民主党就移民问题“采取一些行动”，特别是针对长期无证移民工人。
Mr Trump’s room for manoeuvre may narrow in other ways, too. In the past he has repeatedly pressed the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Now a Democratic Senate could block his attempts to install another loyalist on its board, strengthening the central bank’s independence. Public pressure may also encourage Mr Trump to soften his immigration crackdown. In a TV interview with CBS, Mr Trump acknowledged that his deportation policy “might be too tough” and said he would “love to do something on immigration” with Democrats, particularly for long-term undocumented workers.
特朗普是否愿意妥协，当然远未确定。就在接受哥伦比亚广播公司采访几小时后，他任命了“强硬”驱逐行动的设计者斯蒂芬·米勒为白宫幕僚长。然而，在民主党控制国会的情况下，讨价还价或许是推进其剩余经济议程的最佳途径。在与获胜的民主党人对抗时，TACO或许会胜过VETO。■
Mr Trump’s willingness to compromise is, of course, far from certain. Only hours after his CBS interview, he appointed Stephen Miller, an architect of the “tough” deportation campaign, as White House chief of staff. Yet with Democrats controlling Congress, bargaining may offer the best route to advancing his remaining economic agenda. When it comes to confrontation with triumphant Democrats, TACO may prevail over VETO. ■