主要大国将于下周出席由菲律宾主办的东南亚国家峰会，此次会议召开之际，该地区集团面临着最为复杂的背景之一，从重创经济的伊朗战争到日益加剧的美中竞争。
Major powers will join a summit next week of Southeast Asian nations hosted by the Philippines against one of the most complex backdrops for the regional bloc, from the Iran war that has battered economies to the growing US-China rivalry.
就在家门口，东南亚国家联盟（东盟）的11个成员国正在应对内战蹂躏的缅甸危机、泰柬冲突，以及南海竞争性主张引发的紧张局势。以下是该集团的五个关键方面。
Closer to home, the 11 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are grappling with a crisis in civil war-torn Myanmar, conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and tension over competing claims in the South China Sea. Here are five key aspects of the bloc.
东盟成立于1967年8月8日，当时印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡和泰国签署了《曼谷宣言》，确立了经济及其他类型合作、地区和平与稳定的目标。与欧盟不同，东盟没有能够向成员国强制实施决定的机构。
ASEAN was founded on August 8, 1967, when Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand signed the Bangkok Declaration, setting goals for economic and other types of cooperation and regional peace and stability. Unlike the European Union, ASEAN has no body that can impose decisions on members.
在最初的五个国家之后，文莱于1984年加入，越南于1995年加入，老挝和缅甸于1997年加入，柬埔寨于1999年加入。东帝汶于2025年10月成为第11个成员国。2025年，其总人口达6.932亿，占世界人口的8.4%。
After the initial five nations, Brunei joined in 1984, Vietnam in 1995, Laos and Myanmar in 1997 and Cambodia in 1999. Timor-Leste became the 11th member in October 2025. Its combined population of 693.2 million in 2025 accounts for 8.4% of the world's population.
该集团的总产出达4.3万亿美元，若视为单一整体，将位居世界第五大经济体，而东盟数据显示货物贸易额达4.4万亿美元。
The bloc's combined output of $4.3 trillion would rank it as the fifth-largest economy in the world if considered as a single unit, while ASEAN data shows goods trade stood at $4.4 trillion.
东盟经济共同体旨在建立单一市场和生产基地，但非关税壁垒和不均衡的进展仍限制着一体化进程。
The ASEAN Economic Community aims to establish a single market and production base, but non-tariff barriers and uneven progress still limit integration.
成员国在政治、经济和社会方面存在巨大差异，且与中国和美国的安全关系各异，这使集体行动变得复杂。四个成员国在拥挤的南海水域拥有正式主张。
Collective action is complicated by vast political, economic and social differences among members, who have varying security ties with China and the United States. Four have formal claims in the crowded waterway of the South China Sea.
东盟帮助建立了一个基于有冲突历史的国家间定期对话的地区秩序。其论坛将中国、美国、俄罗斯、日本和印度带到了同一张桌面上。
ASEAN helped build a regional order based on regular dialogue among countries with a history of conflict. Its forums bring China, the United States, Russia, Japan and India to the same table.
它建立了一个自由贸易协定网络，以及连接东南亚与中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）。经济危机曾对其构成考验。
It has built a network of free-trade pacts as well as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership linking Southeast Asia with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Economic crises have tested it.
1997-1998年亚洲金融危机暴露了其对跨境冲击的脆弱性，并推动了与中国、日本和韩国的合作，包括2000年启动的“清迈倡议”，该倡议现已成为一项规模达2400亿美元的区域金融安全网。
The 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis exposed its vulnerability to cross-border shocks and helped spur cooperation with China, Japan and South Korea, including the 2000 Chiang Mai Initiative, now a $240-billion regional financial safety net.
2026年，它增设了一项机制，旨在自然灾害和大流行病等突发冲击发生时提供快速流动性支持。
In 2026, it added a facility to provide rapid liquidity during sudden shocks such as natural disasters and pandemics.
政治和安全危机更难化解；饱受战乱困扰的缅甸、泰柬关系紧张，以及南海争端，都在考验东盟基于共识的决策模式。
Political and security crises have proved harder to resolve; strife-torn Myanmar, tension between Thailand and Cambodia, and South China Sea disputes test ASEAN's consensus-based approach.
“东盟中心地位”是指东南亚国家应团结一致，保持在塑造地区架构的机构中心位置，而非让域外大国主导议程。
"ASEAN centrality" is the principle that Southeast Asian nations should act together to stay at the centre of institutions shaping the region, rather than letting outside powers set the agenda.
通过主办涉及大国的论坛，东盟让较小的成员国能够发出更强有力的集体声音。
By hosting forums involving major powers, ASEAN allows smaller members to project a stronger collective voice.
但其共识原则和不干涉原则可能拖慢决策、稀释应对力度，而东盟缺乏执法权力来迫使政府改弦易辙。
But its principles of consensus and non-interference can slow decisions and dilute responses, while ASEAN lacks enforcement powers to make governments change course.
随着美中竞争加剧、大国另寻外部合作机制，其中心地位面临越来越大的压力。
Its centrality faces growing pressure as US-China rivalry intensifies and major powers pursue external groupings.
第49届东盟峰会预计将于11月15日至17日举行，议程将涉及能源安全、人工智能、跨境污染等议题，以及对缅甸局势、泰柬紧张关系和南海争端的关切。
On the expected agenda for the 49th ASEAN Summit from November 15 to 17 are issues such as energy security, artificial intelligence and transboundary pollution, is well as concerns over Myanmar, Thai-Cambodian tension, and South China Sea disputes.
随着中东冲突威胁燃料供应和价格，能源安全变得更加紧迫。菲律宾在担任东盟轮值主席国期间，也将人工智能列为优先事项。
Energy security has become more urgent as the Middle East conflict threatens fuel supplies and prices. The Philippines has also made AI a priority during its term as ASEAN chair.
东盟的“缅甸问题五点共识”未能阻止战事。泰柬停火自12月以来得以维持，但边界争端仍未解决。
ASEAN's five-point Myanmar peace plan has failed to halt fighting. The Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire has held since December, but the border dispute remains unresolved.
跨境烟霾在印尼野火持续数月、令新加坡和马来西亚深受其害后，再次成为地区议题。南海紧张局势依然存在，因为东盟正在与中国就行为准则进行谈判，与此同时对峙仍在发生。
Transboundary haze has returned as a regional issue after months of Indonesian wildfires choked Singapore and Malaysia. South China Sea tensions also persist as the bloc negotiates a code of conduct with China amid confrontations.
美中竞争可能会在会议间隙成为焦点，因为白宫已表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将于11月17日与东盟举行特别峰会，并会见菲律宾总统费迪南德·马科斯 Jr.。
US-China rivalry could be prominent on the sidelines, as the White House has said President Donald Trump will hold a special summit with ASEAN on November 17 and meet Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.