
以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡周二在新一届议会(即克内塞特)就职宣誓仪式上呼吁组建民族团结政府——至少是在犹太裔以色列人之间——试图继续掌权。目前掌握议席多数的反对派虽然尚未组建政府,但以嘲讽、喝倒彩和退场抗议作为回应。
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for a national unity government – at least among Jewish Israelis – during the swearing-in of Israel’s new parliament, or Knesset, on Tuesday, hoping to cling to power. The opposition to him, which now has a majority of seats but has yet to form a government, reacted with heckles, catcalls, and walkouts.
内塔尼亚胡援引所谓的内部和外部威胁,呼吁与已获授权组建政府以取代他的反对派阵营实现团结。他指向伊朗构成的威胁,以及以色列境内民主选举产生的巴勒斯坦裔议员人数增加,并在没有证据的情况下指责这些议员寻求摧毁以色列。
Citing supposed internal and external threats, Netanyahu called for unity with the opposition bloc that has been tasked with forming a government to replace him. Netanyahu pointed to the threat posed by Iran and the increased number of democratically elected lawmakers who are Palestinian citizens of Israel, whom he accused, without evidence, of seeking Israel’s destruction.
“我们必须做一件事——放下所有其他考量,组建民族团结政府。只有这样的政府才能应对这种规模的挑战。用狭隘政府无法应对它们,”他说。许多分析人士认为,联合政府谈判结束后,少数派政府极有可能出现。
“We must do one thing – set aside every other consideration and form a national unity government. Only such a government will be able to meet challenges of this magnitude. It is impossible to handle them with a narrow government,” he said of the potential for a minority government that many analysts consider likely after coalition negotiations are complete.
“我说这话是因为在这里的议会里,他们正认真谈论组建这种狭隘政府,一个包含恐怖主义支持者、仇恨以色列者,或依赖他们的人的政府,”他说,指的是代表巴勒斯坦裔以色列公民的政党。
“I say this because here in this parliament they are seriously talking about forming a narrow government like this, a government that includes within it terror supporters, haters of Israel, or that would be dependent on them,” he said, referring to the parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel.
即使以以色列政治的标准来看——分析人士称个性长期以来掩盖了政党和政策——周二的会议异常激烈。
Even by the standards of Israeli politics, where analysts say personality has long overshadowed party and policy, Tuesday’s session was unusually contentious.
前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特在内塔尼亚胡讲话时进行嘲讽,并与后者的妻子萨拉及其强硬派盟友伊塔马尔·本-格维尔互相攻击,而许多在总理讲话中受到攻击的巴勒斯坦裔议员则退场抗议。
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett heckled Netanyahu while trading barbs with the latter’s wife, Sara, and his hard-right ally Itamar Ben-Gvir, while many of the Palestinian lawmakers attacked by the prime minister during his speech walked out in protest.
已获首次组阁机会的加迪·艾森科特随后取消了原定与内塔尼亚胡的联合政府谈判,并宣布他“不适合任职”。
Gadi Eisenkot, who has been given the first chance to form a new government subsequently cancelled previously scheduled coalition talks with Netanyahu and declared him “unfit for office”.
个性化政治 内塔尼亚胡长期在以色列政坛扮演着举足轻重的角色,助推政治体制演变为高度依赖个人魅力的模式,选民通常先认定一位心仪的领袖,随后才关注政策议题。尽管如此,尽管没有哪位政客比他对这一变革的贡献更大,内塔尼亚胡如今却在为自己的政治生命而战。
Personality politics Netanyahu has long played an outsized role in Israeli politics, helping transform the political system into one that is highly based on personalities, with voters typically identifying a leader they like first, and then focusing on policy discussions. Nevertheless, despite having contributed more to that change than any other politician, Netanyahu now finds himself fighting for his political life.
如果艾森科特能够组建一个可行的新政府——这仍充满变数——内塔尼亚胡将面临被排除在权力核心之外的局面,其未来将是在失去总理职务庇护的情况下继续面对腐败审判。此外,针对他及其政府在2023年10月7日哈马斯发动袭击前的失职,很可能也将展开调查。
If Eisenkot is able to form a viable new government – which still hangs in the balance – Netanyahu faces being frozen out of power, and a future in which his corruption trial continues without the protection of the prime minister’s office. There will also likely be an inquiry into his and his government’s failings in the run-up to the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023.
然而,他可能的倒台并不意味着以色列个性化政治的终结。埃塞克斯大学以色列投票行为与选举策略专家罗伊·祖尔表示,这反而可能成为他最持久的政治遗产之一。
His potential downfall, however, does not mean an end to personality politics in Israel. Instead, it may be one of the most lasting parts of his legacy, said Roi Zur, an Israeli specialist in voting behaviour and election strategies at the University of Essex.
“内塔尼亚胡将以色列的政党制度美式化,并把利库德集团打造成了一个民粹主义政党,”他说,谈及这位任期最长的总理对以色列及其所在政党的影响。
“Netanyahu Americanised the party system in Israel and made Likud a populist party,” he said of the influences the country’s longest-serving prime minister has had on Israel and his own party.
“在以色列,名单榜首或党魁至关重要,政治围绕党魁运转,这是显而易见的,”祖尔说。“我们从民众对政党或投票的总体看法中可以看到这一点。当你问人们‘你投给谁?’时,他们会回答‘我投内塔尼亚胡、我投贝内特、我投艾森科特’,而在过去,回答是‘我投利库德集团、我投工党’等等。”
“It is a clear case in Israel that the person at the head of the list or the head of the party is very important, and politics evolve around the head of the party,” Zur said. “We see it in how people think about political parties or voting in general in Israel. When you ask people, ‘Who are you voting for?’, they say, ‘I vote for Netanyahu, I vote for Bennett, I vote for Eisenkot,’ whilst in the past it was ‘I vote for Likud, I vote for Labor,’ and so on.”Toxic populism Dahlia Schneidlin, an American-Israeli pollster, noted that Israeli political campaigns had become more personalised in the past few decades even though elections in the country are almost all based on voting for a party slate, and not individuals.
有毒的民粹主义 美籍以色列民调专家达莉亚·施奈德林指出,尽管以色列选举几乎全部基于政党名单投票而非个人投票,但过去几十年来,以色列政治竞选已变得更加个人化。这导致了许多选民关注人格而非政党,并据此投票的情况。
That had led to many cases where voters focus on the personality rather than the party, and vote accordingly.
然而,以色列的选举制度几乎总是导致组建联合政府。施奈德林表示,将其他政党纳入联合政府往往需要领导人展现“政治谈判和讨价还价技巧”,以此鼓励其他党派加入。
However, the Israeli electoral system almost always leads to coalition governments. And bringing other parties into a coalition often needs leaders to demonstrate “political neogitiating and bargaining skills”, Schneidlin said, as they try to encourage others to join them.
施奈德林说,如果艾森科特想要组建政府,而不仅仅是专注于他个人的人格魅力,就必须展现这些技巧。
Eisenkot, Schneidlin said, will have to demonstrate those skills if he is to form a government, rather than simply being focused on his own personality.
但对政治人物个性差异的强调超过了对政策立场的重视,这助长了一种文化:个人恩怨——例如内塔尼亚胡与反对派资深人物阿维格多·利伯曼之间的恩怨,两人的共同敌意众所周知,但他们的右翼政治立场在某些方面非常接近——助长了一种民粹主义政治,这种政治容易被渴望将自己视为积极参与政治的公众所理解。
But the emphasis on differences in political personality over policy positions has fuelled a culture where personal differences, such as those between Netanyahu and opposition stalwart Avigdor Lieberman – whose shared animosity is well known but whose right-wing political positions are in some ways very close – contribute to a populist politics easily understood by a public eager to see itself as politically engaged.
“过分强调个人因素让一切变得更糟,”查塔姆高级研究员约西·梅克尔伯格说。“由于政党结构如此集权,领导人可以变得近乎独裁,并能不受约束地行事。这就是为什么一位总理可以指责19名当选的克内塞特议员是恐怖分子同情者,却没人觉得这很不寻常。这已经变得有毒了,”他说。
“The stress on the personal makes everything so much worse,” Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, said. “With party structures so centralised, leaders can become almost dictatorial and get to act without constraint. This is how it becomes possible for a prime minister to accuse 19 elected members of the Knesset of being terrorist sympathisers and nobody thinks it’s extraordinary. It’s become toxic,” he said.