无论是有意还是无意，史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什纳在刚刚于阿布扎比举行的美乌俄三方和谈中，被俄罗斯代表团耍得团团转。
Wittingly or not, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were outplayed by Team Russia during the trilateral peace talks just held in Abu Dhabi between the U.S., Ukraine and Russia.
莫斯科此行并非为了谈判乌克兰和平。相反，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京看准了一个机会——一个由威特科夫和库什纳轻信地送上门的机会——以削弱欧洲团结，并试图为重塑北约铺平道路。
Moscow didn’t attend to negotiate peace in Ukraine. Rather, Russian President Vladimir Putin saw an opening — gullibly handed to him by Witkoff and Kushner — to undermine European unity and to attempt to lay the groundwork to reshape NATO.
普京长期以来虚假地宣称，北约东扩是他入侵乌克兰的根本原因。2021年，他撰写了一篇题为《论俄罗斯人和乌克兰人的历史统一》的长文，指责西方蓄意将乌克兰变成“反俄罗斯”事业的工具。
Putin has long falsely argued that NATO’s expansion eastward was the root cause of his invasion of Ukraine. In 2021, he penned a lengthy essay titled, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” accusing the West of intentionally turning Ukraine into an “anti-Russia” cause.
他写道：“一步步地，乌克兰被拖入了一场危险的地缘政治博弈，旨在将乌克兰变成欧洲和俄罗斯之间的屏障。”普京还辩称，乌克兰正被准备作为北约“针对俄罗斯的跳板”。当然，这完全是胡说八道。这篇文章的大部分内容——其要点普京后来在克里姆林宫接受天真的塔克·卡尔森采访时又重复了一遍——集中在过分强调俄罗斯与基辅罗斯的联系——一个以基辅为中心的九世纪中世纪斯拉夫国家。
“Step by step, Ukraine was dragged into a dangerous geopolitical game aimed at turning Ukraine into a barrier between Europe and Russia,” he wrote. Putin also argued that Ukraine was being prepared as a NATO “springboard against Russia.”Of course, it was entirely nonsense. Much of the essay, whose main points Putin regurgitated during his interview with the naive Tucker Carlson at the Kremlin, focused on overemphasizing Russia’s connection to Kyivan Rus — a Ninth century medieval Slavic state centered in Kyiv.
普京需要将基辅的历史据为俄罗斯所有，以此论证乌克兰就是俄罗斯。也就是说，重要的是要理解，普京捏造的俄罗斯历史课只不过是一层烟幕。
Putin’s need to co-opt Kyiv’s history as Russia’s own was necessary to argue that Ukraine is Russia. That said, it is important to understand that Putin’s contrived Russian history lessons are simply a smokescreen.
普京对乌克兰的战争，实质上是一场针对西方、特别是针对北约的战争。北约以其现有架构，是阻止普京重建华沙条约组织的最大障碍。
Putin’s war against Ukraine is in reality a war against the West and against NATO in particular. NATO, as currently constituted, is the biggest obstacle preventing Putin from reconstituting the Warsaw Pact.
在和平谈判的幌子下，阿布扎比会谈给了普京一个机会，去攻击北约及其组成该防御性条约的32个成员国——这个条约自二战结束以来一直维持着西欧的和平。
Under the guise of peace talks, Abu Dhabi gave Putin an opening to attack NATO and the 32 member states that comprise the defensive pact that has kept the peace in Western Europe since the end of World War II.
威特科夫和库什纳愚蠢地落入了普京的圈套，他们强行逼迫欧洲北约盟友同意在乌克兰战争结束后讨论欧洲安全架构。这当然是针对北约的代号。换言之，威特科夫和库什纳把北约的未来摆上了谈判桌——实际上同意让俄罗斯在北约的前景上拥有发言权。
Foolishly, Witkoff and Kushner fell into Putin’s trap when they strong-armed European NATO allies into agreeing to discuss Europe’s security architecture after the end of the war in Ukraine. That is, of course, code for NATO. In other words, Witkoff and Kushner put NATO’s future on the negotiating table — in effect agreeing to give Russia a say in what it looks like.
北约所有32个成员国都将对结果进行表决，批准的可能性不大。但这一提议依然顺应了普京的虚假叙事，即北约导致了俄罗斯在东欧的侵略。同样糟糕的是，特朗普总统的特别和平特使同意在阿布扎比将欧洲盟友推向场边。他们在场，只是因为威特科夫和库什纳接受了克里姆林宫拒绝让他们入席的决定，无法进入谈判室。
All 32 nations of NATO will get a vote on the outcome, and their approval isn’t likely. But this offer still plays into Putin’s false narrative that NATO caused Russia’s aggression in Eastern Europe. Equally bad, President Trump’s special peace envoys agreed to relegate European allies to the sidelines in Abu Dhabi. They were there, they just could not be in the negotiating room as Witkoff and Kushner acceded to the Kremlin’s refusal to include them.
这带有1945年灾难性的雅尔塔会议的影子，那次会议导致了铁幕降临和冷战爆发；特朗普团队与俄罗斯就欧洲的命运进行谈判，进而也关乎北约的命运。
In shades of the disastrous Yalta Conference in 1945 that led to the Iron Curtain and the Cold War, Team Trump negotiated with Russia over the fate of Europe and by extension the fate of NATO.
俄罗斯首席谈判代表弗拉基米尔·梅金斯基在阿布扎比难掩得意，因为成功将乌克兰和美国与其欧洲盟友分裂开来。他贬低欧洲代表团——其中包括北约秘书长吕特的幕僚长杰弗里·范·莱文——并建议他们像游客一样去酒吧会面。
Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s chief negotiator in Abu Dhabi, could not suppress his glee at dividing Ukraine and the U.S. from their European allies. He belittled the European contingent, which included Geoffrey Van Leeuwen, chief of staff to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and suggested that they act like tourists and meet at a bar.
俄罗斯已明确表示，莫斯科正瞄准欧洲。本周早些时候，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫在电视讲话中称，莫斯科讨论欧洲战后安全基础设施完全“合理”。他将其视为削弱欧洲的手段。
Russia has made clear that Moscow is gunning for Europe. Earlier this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated during televised remarks, that it was perfectly “reasonable” for Moscow to discuss Europe’s post-war security infrastructure. He sees it as a means to weaken it.
莫斯科表现得仿佛正从强势地位进行谈判。但现实是，其军队在乌克兰正被消耗殆尽——迄今伤亡达160万，仅本周单日就达2580人。
Moscow acts as though it is negotiating from a position of strength. But in reality, its army is getting wiped out in Ukraine — 1.6 million casualties so far and 2,580 in a single day this week.
俄罗斯对北约未来拥有发言权，更不用说拥有否决权，这毫无道理可言。普京的权谋手段显而易见。我们在阿布扎比会谈开始前几天就已指出这一点。为什么威特科夫和库什纳看不出我们看到的东西？
There is nothing reasonable about Russia having a say-so, let alone a veto, over NATO’s future. Putin’s power play was more than obvious. We called it out several days before the Abu Dhabi talks began. Why couldn’t Witkoff and Kushner see what we did?
整个欧洲当然也看清了这一点。欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡娅·卡拉斯看穿了普京的伎俩。
Europe as a whole certainly sees it. Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s High Representative, saw through Putin’s gamesmanship.
“到目前为止，他们只是假装在谈判，”她说。“我们已经建立了欧洲安全架构。北约和欧盟各自都有各自的角色。”随后，她更进一步表示：“我们还必须确保乌克兰融入这一架构。”幸运的是，在美国方面，和平谈判中有一个人也看清了这一点：北约盟军最高盟军司令亚历克西斯·格里内克维奇上将，他同时担任美国欧洲司令部司令。
“So far, they have just been pretending that they negotiate,” she said. “We already have a European security architecture in place. NATO and the European Union both have their respective roles.”She then one-upped Putin by adding, “We must also make sure Ukraine is integrated into this architecture.”Fortunately, on the U.S. side, there was one man at the peace talks who saw it as well: NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Alexus Grynekewich, who also serves as commander of the U.S. European Command.
在参议院确认听证会上，格里内克维奇谈到这场冲突时表示：“我认为乌克兰能赢。”他本周还在TVP World电视台表示，乌克兰“对欧洲-大西洋安全至关重要。”应该由格里内克维奇来主导这些谈判，而不是威特科夫或库什纳。他的职责是保卫北约，而不是将北约出卖给普京。
During his Senate confirmation hearings, Grynekewich said of the conflict, “I think Ukraine can win.”He also stated on TVP World this week that Ukraine is “essential to Euro-Atlantic security.”Grynkewich should be leading these talks, not Witkoff or Kushner. His job is to defend NATO and not to sell it out to Putin.
马克·托斯撰写国家安全和外交政策文章。乔纳森·斯威特上校（退役）曾担任30年军事情报官员，并于2012年至2014年领导美国欧洲司令部情报接触处。他们是INTREP360及Substack平台上INTREP360情报报告的联合创始人。
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. They are the co-founders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.