德国经济是否正在回暖？这个问题的答案取决于你的视角。本周在柏林举行的2026年机械工程峰会上，气氛沉闷。“一年前，我在这里说：我们很愤怒。今天我必须说：我们感到震惊，”机械工程行业协会（VDMA）主席贝特拉姆·考尔拉特周二在开幕致辞中表示。
Is Germany's economy back on the up? The answer to that question depends on your perspective. At the 2026 Mechanical Engineering Summit in Berlin this week, the mood was sullen. "A year ago, I said here: We are angry. Today I must say: We are stunned," Bertram Kawlath, president of the Mechanical Engineering Industry Association (VDMA), said in his opening remarks on Tuesday.
机械和装置工程领域几十年来一直是德国工业的支柱。它曾雇佣超过一百万人；如今每个月有1.5万个岗位被削减。自2018年以来，产量已萎缩约20%。
The mechanical and plant engineering sector was the backbone of German industry for decades. It once employed more than a million people; now 15,000 positions are being cut every month. Production has shrunk about 20% since 2018.
考尔拉特批评联邦政府内部争斗和缺乏改革，以及企业认为持续存在的高官僚主义和税收负担。
Kawlath criticized the federal government's infighting and lack of reform, as well as what the companies consider a continued high bureaucracy and tax burden.
“[我们]对政府众多声明中的粉饰感到震惊。对我们国家作为商业地点日益明显的衰落感到震惊。”德国经济正在重新增长——虽然增长幅度不大。德国总理弗里德里希·梅茨在2025年5月就职时承诺快速改革和迅速可感的经济复苏。一年半后，现实已追上了他。
"[We are] stunned by the whitewashing in so many government statements. Stunned by the increasingly visible decline of our country as a business location." Germany's economy is growing again — a little German Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised quick reforms and a rapidly noticeable economic upswing when he took office in May 2025. A year and a half later, reality has caught up with him.
梅茨领导的由保守派基民盟（CDU）、其巴伐利亚姊妹党基社盟（CSU）以及中间偏左的社民党（SPD）组成的联合政府，不断陷入困境。此外，还有危机和战争。德国经济面临着前所未有的逆风，梅茨去年10月在柏林德国雇主日会议上表示。
Merz's coalition of his conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union, (CSU), along with the center-left Social Democrats(SPD), keeps running into trouble. In addition, there are crises and wars. The German economy is facing more headwinds than seldom before, Merz said in October at the German Employers' Day conference in Berlin.
考虑到这些情况，小小的成功更加有意义。“衷心感谢你们带来的好消息，”梅茨在柏林接收经济专家委员会秋季报告时表示，该报告预测2026年经济增长1.3%，2027年增长1%。
Given the circumstances, small successes are even more meaningful. "A heartfelt thanks for the good news you bring," Merz said when he received the autumn report of the Council of Economic Experts in Berlin, which predicted economic growth of 1.3% for 2026 and 1% for 2027.
经济专家受德国政府委托，独立分析商业活动并提出经济政策建议。今年早些时候，他们还持更为悲观的态度。
The economic experts have a German government mandate to independently analyze business activity and make recommendations for economic policy. Earlier this year, they were much more pessimistic.
“德国经济从伊朗战争引发的能源价格冲击中恢复得比预期快得多，”专家咨询委员会主席莫妮卡·施尼策在解释预测时表示，“我们看到显著的经济复苏，由出人意料的强劲出口和高额政府支出推动。”
"The German economy has recovered quicker than expected from the energy price shock sparked by the war in Iran," said Monika Schnitzer, chair of the expert advisory board, explaining the prognosis. "We see a significant economic recovery, driven by surprisingly strong exports and high government spending."
总理在11月11日迎来71岁生日，他在讲话中提到“令人鼓舞的信号”。“德国经济正在缓慢回升。考虑到德国面临的诸多危机，我们能做到这一点并非完全出乎意料。”为什么1%的增长还不够但这些改善的前景并未改变长期问题。老龄化社会意味着养老金、医疗和护理的账单在不断上涨。
The chancellor, who celebrated his 71st birthday on November 11, spoke of "encouraging signals" in his address. "The economy in Germany is slowly on the rise again. Considering the many crises in Germany, it was not totally expected that we would manage that." Why 1% growth is not enough But these improved prospects do not change the long-term problems. An ageing society means the bills for pensions, health and caregiving are constantly rising.
与此同时，为这些服务提供资金的劳动年龄人口数量在下降。这给公共财政带来越来越大的压力。根据柏林的财政规划，社会福利支出、国防和债务利息将占联邦政府预算支出的80%。德国政府的养老金和劳动力改革是什么？
At the same time, the number of working-age people who finance these services is sinking. That puts increasing pressure on the public purse. According to Berlin's financial planning, social welfare costs, defense and interest on debt will account for 80% of the spending in the federal government's budget. What are the German government's pension, labor reforms?
“我们必须意识到，从长远来看，联邦预算的预期收入将不足以覆盖计划支出，”施尼策警告说。增长率远低于长期保持与过去几十年相同繁荣水平所需的水平。
"We must realize that in the long term the expected revenues in the federal budget will not be enough to cover the planned expenses," Schnitzer warned. The growth rates are far below what is needed to secure the same level of prosperity as previous decades in the long term.
“要从这种财政困境中增长出来，我们需要过去50年德国从未经历过的经济增长水平，”她说。
"To grow out of this budgetary predicament, we would need levels of economic growth which we haven't experienced in Germany for the past 50 years," she said.
政府目前正在就2027年预算进行最终审议；计划支出超过5550亿欧元（6150亿美元）。由于收入不足以覆盖支出，政府计划新增超过1180亿欧元的债务。加上为基础设施和军事设立的债务融资特别基金，新增借款总额将近2040亿欧元。德国会失去最高评级吗？
The government is currently in final deliberations over its 2027 budget; spending upwards of €555 billion ($615 billion) is planned. Because revenue won't be enough to cover it, the government is planning to take on more than €118 billion in new debt. Adding the debt-financed special funds for infrastructure and the military, the new borrowing adds up to almost €204 billion. Could Germany lose its top rating?
经济专家警告称，如果德国继续走这条路，债务占GDP比例可能在2040年上升至100%。这一比例表明国家债务相对于年度经济产出的高度。2025年底，该比例为63.5%。
The economic experts have warned that if Germany continues with this path, the debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 100% by 2040. This ratio indicates how high the national debt is in relation to annual economic output. At the end of 2025, it was 63.5%.
德国是世界主要民主工业化国家（G7）中唯一仍保持AAA评级的国家，这是金融市场上最佳的信用评级。它向投资者发出信号，表明德国政府债券的违约风险最小。“我希望它保持这样，”梅尔茨强调。
Germany is the only country of the world's leading democratic industrialized nations (G7) to still hold a AAA rating, the best possible credit rating in finance markets. It signals to investors the smallest possible default risk for German government bonds. "I want it to stay that way," Merz emphasized.
德国面临压力 然而，减少债务并不简单。“减少基于债务的融资将使政策制定者面临一项历史性的整顿任务，并需要做出艰难的决定，”施尼策说。然而，紧缩必须设计得能够促进增长。一些建议包括取消对环境有害的税收优惠——例如柴油燃料的能源税减免。
Germany under pressure However, taking on less debt will not be simple. "A reduction in debt-based financing presents policymakers with a consolidation task of historic proportions and will require tough decisions," said Schnitzer. The belt-tightening must, however, be designed to enable growth. Some recommendations include reducing environmentally harmful tax benefits — like the energy tax breaks for diesel fuel.
专家表示，所谓的“母亲养老金”，即对年长父母的养老金补贴，应予以取消。中期内可能需要增税，例如增值税。“负担应在各代人和社会群体之间公平分担，”施尼策说。
The so-called "mothers' pension", a pension subsidy for older parents, should be revoked, said the experts. Tax increases could become necessary in the medium term, for example with value-added tax. "The burden should be shared fairly between generations and societal groups," Schnitzer said.
默茨希望全欧洲实行紧缩政策 总理表示，专家的建议已被采纳。稳健的财政状况不仅是德国的问题，也是整个欧盟的问题。默茨表示，需要一条财政紧缩路线，并补充说，政客对年轻一代负有责任。需要改革，尤其是在社会保障体系方面。年轻初创企业——德国的下一代科技巨头？
Merz wants austerity throughout Europe According to the chancellor, the experts' message has been received. Solid state finances are an issue in Germany but also throughout the European Union. Merz said there needs to be a consolidation course, adding that politicians have a duty to the younger generation. Reforms are needed, especially when it comes to social security systems. Young startups — Germany's next tech champions?
经济研究人员将希望寄托于提高企业生产力。简单来说，生产力描述的是一家企业在一定时间内，利用其员工、机器和资源能产生多少产出。
Economic researchers are setting their hopes on increasing companies' productivity. Put simply, productivity describes how much a company can generate with its employees, machinery and resources in a set time.
据经济专家委员会称，即使在同一行业内，差异也非常大。在德国，表现最好的企业生产力可达最弱企业的五倍。
According to the Council of Economic Experts, there is enormous variation even within the same industries. In Germany, the top companies are up to five times as productive as the weakest enterprises.
该报告称，如果生产力较低的企业能够赶上，经济增长可能会显著增加。“新技术和商业模式可能推动最高生产力，并使新的高生产力企业得以发展。”德国需要初创企业和风险资本 但创新需要资金。ifo经济研究院认为，这里存在相当大的不足。
If the less productive companies caught up, economic growth could increase significantly, it said in the report. "New technologies and business models could drive peak productivity and allow new highly productive companies to develop." Germany needs startups, venture capital But innovations need capital. It's here that the Ifo Economic Research Institute sees considerable deficiencies.
新的评估显示，德国大学培育出的成功创业企业数量，明显少于英国或美国的同类高校。例如，每1000名学生中，每年从斯坦福大学周边涌现出约14名风险资本支持的创始人。在欧洲领先的剑桥，这一数字为3.5。相比之下，慕尼黑仅为0.5。
New evaluations show that German universities produce significantly fewer successful business startups than their counterparts in the United Kingdom or United States. For example, for every 1,000 students, about 14 venture capital-backed founders emerge from the vicinity of Stanford University each year. In Cambridge, the European leader, it's 3.5. In Munich, by contrast, it's only 0.5.
德国仍有大量发明家和钻研者，尤其是在机械工程领域。然而，柏林产业峰会传出的信息是，为了重新取得成功，劳动力成本必须下降。建议包括延长工作时间，并赋予雇主在就业保护方面更大的灵活性。
There continues to be an abundance of inventors and tinkerers in Germany, especially in mechanical engineering. However, the message from the industry summit in Berlin was that for renewed success, labor costs must come down. Suggestions included longer working hours and more flexibility for employers around job protection.
最初意图并非削减员工的工资和薪金。然而，德国机械工业协会委托德国经济研究所开展的一项新研究显示，仅将每周工作时间延长一小时，未来五年内实际国内生产总值将增长1.5%。
The intention was not to cut employees' wages and salaries. However, a new study by the German Economic Institute commissioned for the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association showed that extending the working week by an hour alone would increase real gross domestic product by 1.5% in the coming five years.