
在过去两年里,欧洲在沉睡,而塞尔维亚却保持清醒。全国性的学生运动动摇了根深蒂固的政府基础,并在周日对其造成了前所未有的选举打击——这是反对党十多年来未曾实现的。
While Europe was asleep over the past two years, Serbia was wide awake. A nationwide student movement shook the foundations of a deeply entrenched government and on Sunday, it dealt it an unprecedented electoral blow – something opposition parties had failed to do for more than a decade.
在选举结果公布之前,塞尔维亚学生运动在国际媒体上基本被忽视。学生们被视为天真、无关紧要、失意的青年。
Until the election results came out, the Serbian student movement was largely ignored by international media. The students were seen as naive, irrelevant, disaffected youth.
他们被世界以及总统亚历山大·武契奇低估,或许反而对他们有利。但塞尔维亚学生并未仅仅依赖对手的自信。近两年来,他们构建并实践了一种替代的政治模式,这种模式很快显现,并最终在选举中取得胜利。替代政治的隐蔽居所虽然学生抗议是由一起具体事件——2024年在一座新装修车站的列车车棚坍塌导致16人死亡——引发的,但他们的愤怒根源更为深厚。
That they were underestimated by the world and by President Aleksandar Vucic was perhaps to their advantage. But Serbian students did not just rely on their opponent’s overconfidence. For almost two years, they built and practised an alternative model of politics that soon became visible and eventually triumphed at the polls. The hidden abode of alternative politics Although the student protests were triggered by one particular incident – the death of 16 people in a train canopy collapse at a newly renovated station in 2024 – their anger had much deeper roots.
学生及其家庭被多方面挤压:本地精英的腐败和管理不善削弱了生活水平,使他们陷入不稳定;国际企业助长了这种腐败,同时提供的工作质量低下,几乎没有社会流动的前景。
Students and their families had been squeezed from all sides: by local elites whose corruption and mismanagement eroded the standard of living and plunged them into precarity; and by international corporations, which fed that corruption, while offering substandard jobs with little prospect of social mobility.
学生发起的抗议并非首次针对武契奇及其政府。但这一次的不同之处在于,他们保持独立:既不与任何国内政党结盟,也不与塞尔维亚所面对的四大超级大国——俄罗斯、中国、欧盟和美国——站在同一阵线。
The protests the students started were not the first against Vucic and his government. But what was different this time is that they remained independent: neither aligned with any domestic political party nor any of the four superpowers Serbia is dealing with – Russia, China, the European Union and the United States.
学生之所以能够持续施压,是因为他们没有加入现有的政治。塞尔维亚的大多数反对派政党规模小、高度集中,并且与民众日常面临的危机越来越脱节。它们在一个依赖外国投资和信贷的国家中也容易受到腐败影响。与它们结盟对运动来说将是有害的。
Students managed to sustain the pressure because they did not join existing politics. Most Serbian opposition parties are small, centralised and increasingly detached from the crises people face daily. They are also vulnerable to corruption in a country dependent on foreign investment and credit. Associating with them would have been damaging to the movement.
相反,学生们创建了他们自己的替代性政治场景。在全国范围内,他们封锁并占领了大学,使高等教育陷入停滞。他们在广场上举行和平抗议和守夜活动。他们在被占领的建筑物中建立了自己的结构来管理事务。
Instead, the students created their own alternative political scene. Across the country, they blockaded and took over universities, bringing higher education to a standstill. They filled squares with peaceful protests and vigils. They set up their own structures to run their affairs at occupied buildings.
这种强烈的自力更生在诺维萨德技术科学学院表现得很明显——这是塞尔维亚最大的大学院系,拥有超过16,000名在校学生——我于2025年3月首次访问了那里。我受邀前往与学生交谈。
This strong self-reliance was apparent at the Faculty of Technical Sciences in Novi Sad — Serbia’s largest university department, with more than 16,000 students enrolled — which I visited for the first time in March 2025. I was invited there to speak to students.
该学院与过去大不相同。学生卫兵使用通讯设备和金属围栏控制出入口。走廊里的LED屏幕宣布全体大会和面向学生的替代性讲座。可以看到储存有按类型分类的食物和医疗用品的房间,学生护士正在照顾任何有需要的人。学院内还可以看到厨房、阅览室和学生自行管理的行政部门。
The faculty looked nothing like it had before. Student guards controlled entrances with communication equipment and metal fencing. LED screens in the corridors announced plenaries and alternative lectures for students. There were rooms stocked with food sorted by type, and medical supplies, with student nurses tending to anyone in need. Kitchens, reading rooms and a student-run administration could also be seen at the faculty.
由学生的替代性教育部门组织的、关于塞尔维亚感兴趣的当前政治和经济问题的讨论,通常涉及300到400名学生,持续五到六个小时,涵盖的主题后来进入了运动的选举纲领。
Discussions on current political and economic issues of interest to Serbia, organised by the students’ alternative education sections, often involved 300 to 400 students and lasted five or six hours, covering topics that would later enter the movement’s electoral programme.
这种以学生全体大会为中心的组织程度,赢得了普通民众的尊重,并使他们能够抵御警察驱逐他们的尝试。政府及其镇压机构越是攻击他们,民众就越是支持他们。
This level of organisation, focused around student plenaries, earned them the respect of the general population, and enabled them to withstand the attempts by the police to evict them. The more the government and its repressive apparatus attacked them, the more the people stood with them.
随着学生与更广大民众之间的纽带日益加深,民主参与也随之扩大。到2025年3月,面对越来越多的攻击,学生们呼吁民众建立类似于学生全体会议的公民大会,以协助他们为诺维萨德遇难的16人伸张正义。
Introducing direct democracy As this bond between the students and the wider population grew deeper, democratic participation expanded. By March 2025, suffering more and more attacks, the students called for people to establish citizens’ assemblies akin to the student plenaries, in order to aid them in seeking justice for the 16 killed in Novi Sad.
随着塞尔维亚政府继续其镇压策略,学生们意识到变革势在必行,并首次公开要求提前大选。
As the Serbian government continued its repressive strategy, the students realised that a change was necessary and made the first public demand for snap elections.
他们对待选举政治的方式,正如他们对待抗议的方式一样:独立、透明、民主。
Their approach to electoral politics was the same as their approach to protest: independent, transparent, and democratic.
学生们集体作出决定。他们挑选了曾受邀前往被占领的学院与知名公众人物讨论辩论的学者和活动家。男女比例均衡,各大学地区之间也均衡代表。
The students took decisions collectively. They chose academics and activists whom they had invited to their occupied faculties to discuss and debate with well-known public figures. The gender distribution was equal between men and women and between the various university regions.
大家共同决定,不提名成熟政客。学生们明确表示,他们拒绝被纳入一种在整个欧洲都已失败的、以领袖为中心的政治模式。
It was collectively decided that established politicians would not be nominated. The students made it clear they rejected being incorporated into a type of leadership-based politics that was failing all across Europe.
候选人经学生面试后选定。去年夏天,我受邀参加了一场在诺维萨德附近举行的此类面试。现场有300名学生组成的大组,对每位候选人进行提问。手机必须留在室外。
Candidates were chosen after interviews with students. Last summer, I was invited to one such interview session near Novi Sad. There was a large group of 300 students who questioned each candidate. Phones had to be left outside.
这是一种新型政治的隐秘居所:决策不是由少数人在党部做出,而是由一个个全体会议、地方委员会和非正式机构组成的网络产生。它没有领袖,而在那个特定时刻,它奏效了。
This was the hidden abode of a new kind of politics: decisions were made not at a party headquarters by a select few, but by a network of assemblies, local committees and informal institutions. It was leaderless, and in that particular moment, it worked.
未来的挑战 “学生名单”已开始组阁谈判。未来的挑战众多。扭转过去14年的损害将很困难。但更具挑战性的是新政府将面临的复杂地缘政治舞台。
The challenges ahead The Student List has already started negotiations to form the government. The challenges ahead are numerous. Undoing the damage of the past 14 years would be difficult. But even more challenging is the complex geopolitical arena the new government will face.
首个考验很快就会到来。在其竞选纲领中,“学生名单”明确表示谴责加沙的种族灭绝,并不会成为其共犯。这一原则将如何转化为实践?
The first test will come soon enough. In its electoral programme the Student List made clear that it condemns the genocide in Gaza and would not be complicit in it. How would this principle translate into practice?
在武契奇执政下,塞尔维亚与以色列的关系日益紧密。2023年10月后,塞尔维亚对以色列的军火出口从当年的330万美元跃升至2025年的1.26亿美元。去年9月,武契奇为以色列无人机生产工厂揭幕。
Under Vucic, Serbian-Israeli relations grew closer. After October 2023, Serbian arms exports to Israel jumped from $3.3m that year to $126m in 2025. In September, Vucic opened a factory for the production of Israeli drones.
如果新政府要遵守“学生名单”的竞选纲领,至少必须停止向以色列出口军火。
If the new government is to abide by the Student List electoral programme, it would have to halt arms exports to Israel at the very least.
这不会只是一个象征性姿态。这意味着将选举中赢得的政治变革延伸至经济领域,动摇塞尔维亚的外交关系,并挑战该国在更广泛地缘政治秩序中的地位。这可能是一个真正的革命性时刻。
This would not be a symbolic gesture. It would mean extending political change won at the elections into the economic sphere, unsettling Serbia’s foreign relations and challenging the country’s place in the wider geopolitical order. It could be a truly revolutionary moment.
考虑到军工产业的分量、塞尔维亚与以色列的安全合作及其对外资的依赖,此类决定可能引发国内既得利益者的抵制和外国伙伴的施压。
Given the industrial weight of the arms industry, Serbia’s security cooperation with Israel and its reliance on foreign investment, such a decision could provoke resistance from domestic vested interests and pressure from foreign partners.
在此背景下,美国保守派网红在竞选最后几天介入并不令人意外,他们将支持武契奇包装为捍卫塞尔维亚的基督教身份,对抗所谓的“伊斯兰化”和穆斯林威胁。
In this context, it was no surprise that US-based conservative influencers intervened in the final days of the electoral campaign, framing support for Vucic as a defence of Serbia’s Christian identity against “Islamisation” and the so-called Muslim threat.
与此同时,美国保守派政治行动会议(CPAC)——一个极具影响力的美国保守派组织——计划于11月在塞尔维亚设立分会,武契奇预计将扮演核心角色。
Meanwhile, the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) — a powerful US conservative organisation — is set to open a Serbian chapter in November, with Vucic expected to play a central role.
塞尔维亚与超级大国关系的任何转变,都将考验“学生名单”、其作为执政力量生存的能力,以及其在管控张力、避免塞尔维亚内部冲突方面的能力。
Any shift in Serbia’s ties to the superpowers will test the Student List, its ability to survive as a governing force and its capacity to manage tensions while avoiding conflict within Serbia.
这就是塞尔维亚案例超越巴尔干半岛的重要性所在。面对比利时、法国、意大利和西班牙自身的学生运动,欧洲在很大程度上忽视了塞尔维亚发生的一切。
That is why the Serbian case matters beyond the Balkans. Europe, facing its own student movements in Belgium, France, Italy and Spain, has largely ignored what happened in Serbia.
但如果在日益加剧的经济压力下,该大陆核心国家的公民社会开始崩溃,塞尔维亚学生已成功完成的政治实验可能将证明弥足珍贵。
But if civil society begins to collapse in the continent’s core countries under increasing economic strain, the political experiment Serbian students have successfully completed may prove invaluable.
问题不再是能否从塞尔维亚汲取经验,而是欧洲是否准备好向他们学习——还是再次视而不见,直到危机降临到自己家门口。
The question is no longer whether lessons can be drawn from Serbia, but whether Europe is ready to learn from them — or once again look away, until the crisis arrives at its own door.