字号·· | 护眼
欧洲新闻台

胜选之后:塞尔维亚学生运动面临的外交政策与执政挑战After the victory: The foreign policy and governing challenges facing Serbia’s student movement

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

塞尔维亚的学生名单Serbia’s Student List

塞尔维亚“学生名单2026” 美联社 版权所有 卢比沙·伊万诺维奇 发布于2026年10月29日 14:46 GMT+1 塞尔维亚“学生名单”的胜利从根本上改变了该国的政治格局。但赢得选举可能会被证明是较容易的部分。

Serbia’s Student List 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved Ljubiša Ivanović Published on 29 October 2026 - 14:46 GMT+1 The victory of Serbia’s Student List has fundamentally changed the country’s political landscape. But winning the election may prove to have been the easier part.

这场源于两年学生抗议的运动,在没有传统政党结构、没有明确可辨认的领导人,并且在竞选活动的大部分时间里都没有透露如果获胜谁将实际掌管国家的情况下赢得了选举。

The movement that emerged from two years of student protests won the elections without a conventional party structure, without a clearly identifiable leader and, for much of the campaign, without revealing who would actually run the country if it won.

这种模糊性曾是其最大的政治优势之一。然而现在,同样的模糊性可能成为一个问题。

That ambiguity was one of its greatest political strengths. Now, however, the same ambiguity may become a problem.

该地区、布鲁塞尔、莫斯科和中国将关注的事情之一,是新政府如何定位自己。但来自“学生名单”领导人的信号已经相当明确。俄罗斯:不制裁,但接下来呢?迄今为止出现的最明确立场之一涉及俄罗斯。

One of the things that the region, Brussels, Moscow and China will be watching is how the new government positions itself. But there are already fairly clear signals from the leaders of the Students’ List. Russia: No sanctions, but what comes next? One of the clearest positions to emerge so far concerns Russia.

社会学家、也是“学生名单”最突出人物之一的约沃·巴基奇明确表示,新政府不会对莫斯科实施制裁。他将俄罗斯描述为塞尔维亚历史上重要的伙伴,认为像塞尔维亚这样的小国实施制裁几乎没有实际效果,但会带来相当大的象征性后果。

Jovo Bakić, sociologist and one of the most prominent figures on the Student List, has explicitly said that a new government would not impose sanctions on Moscow. He described Russia as a historically important partner for Serbia, arguing that sanctions imposed by a small country such as Serbia would have little practical effect while carrying considerable symbolic consequences.

塞尔维亚科学艺术院院士、贝尔格莱德大学化学学院教授拉多米尔·赛西奇向俄罗斯卫星通讯社表示,“学生名单”不打算对俄罗斯实施制裁。

Academician of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts and professor at the University of Belgrade’s Faculty of Chemistry, Radomir Saičić, told RIA Novosti that the Students’ List does not plan to impose sanctions on Russia.

“正如我们在纲领中所述,‘学生名单’不主张对俄罗斯实施制裁,”赛西奇说。

“As we stated in our programme, the Students’ List does not advocate imposing sanctions against Russia,” Saičić said.

他指出,塞尔维亚本身也曾遭受制裁,并认为此类措施无法解决问题。

He noted that Serbia itself had been subjected to sanctions and argued that such measures do not solve problems.

“问题应通过对话、谈判和协议来解决,而不是制裁,”赛西奇说。

“Problems should be resolved through dialogue, negotiations and agreements, not sanctions,” Saičić said.

“学生胜利”名单候选人、可能出任新总理的德扬·绍什基奇表示,塞尔维亚必须与克罗地亚发展睦邻关系,同时指出双方在对1990年代发生的事情的总体看法上可能仍将存在重大分歧,而“学生名单”不关心这一问题。在接受Index.hr采访时,绍什基奇宣称将改善与克罗地亚和欧盟的关系,但他没有回答关于新政府对俄立场的问题。

Dejan Šoškić, a candidate on the “Students Win” list, and posible new prime minister said that Serbia must develop good-neighbourly relations with Croatia, while noting that there would probably continue to be significant differences in the general perception of what happened in the 1990s, and that the Students’ List does not concern itself with that issue. In an interview with Index.hr, Šoškić announced better relations with Croatia and the European Union, while he did not answer a question about the new government’s position towards Russia.

“学生名单主张充分尊重塞尔维亚的法律框架,包括国际法。因此塞尔维亚的法律框架相当明确,因为宪法规定科索沃和梅托希亚是塞尔维亚的一个自治省。另一方面,国际法律框架的关键文件,如联合国安理会第1244号决议,也确认了这一点,”绍什基奇说。至于欧盟,绍什基奇的表态不那么明确。

“The Students’ List advocates full respect for the legal framework in Serbia, including international law. The legal framework in Serbia is therefore quite clear, because the Constitution states that Kosovo and Metohija is an autonomous province of Serbia. On the other hand, key documents of the international legal framework, such as United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244, also affirm this,” Šoškić said. As for the European Union, Šoškić was less definitive.

“我相信塞尔维亚肯定将处于更容易、更快地满足欧盟标准的位置。它是否会在满足所有条件后的某个时刻加入欧盟,将取决于(除其他因素外)欧盟是否向塞尔维亚提供正式成员资格,以及在该过程结束时的公投中,塞尔维亚公民是否决定支持这一选项,”绍什基奇补充道。玛尔塔·科斯致未来政府的信息在塞尔维亚与俄罗斯关系问题上,新政府与前政府一样,显然无意与布鲁塞尔的政策保持一致。

“I believe that Serbia will certainly be in a position to fulfil the EU criteria much more easily and quickly. Whether it will join the European Union at some point after fulfilling all the conditions will depend, among other things, on whether the European Union offers Serbia full membership, as well as on whether, in a referendum at the end of that process, the citizens of Serbia decide in favour of that option,” Šoškić added. Marta Kos’s message to the future government It is already clear that when it comes to Serbia’s relations with Russia, the new government, just like the previous one, has no intention of aligning itself with Brussels’ policy.

欧盟扩大事务专员玛尔塔·科斯与“学生名单”首席候选人伊利亚·斯尔达诺维奇进行了交谈,并立即强调,贝尔格莱德的政府更迭并不能免除其与欧盟外交和安全政策保持一致的义务。布鲁塞尔方面表示,将根据未来政府的具体行动进行评估,包括其与莫斯科的关系。

European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos spoke with Ilija Srdanović, the lead candidate of the Students’ List, and immediately stressed that a change of government in Belgrade does not remove the obligation to align with the EU’s foreign and security policy. Brussels has indicated that it will assess the future government’s concrete actions, including on the basis of its relations with Moscow.

玛尔塔·科斯表示:“除非塞尔维亚将其外交和安全政策与布鲁塞尔保持一致,包括其在俄罗斯问题上的立场以及因乌克兰战争而对莫斯科实施的制裁,否则塞尔维亚将无法在加入欧盟的道路上取得实质性进展。”这位欧盟专员在回答关于塞尔维亚不加入对俄制裁是否能成为欧盟成员国的问题时表示,对于一个不认同欧盟战略外交政策立场的国家来说,要取得进展将非常困难。

Marta Kos said that “Serbia will not be able to make significant progress towards EU accession unless it aligns its foreign and security policy with Brussels, including its position on Russia and the sanctions imposed on Moscow over the war in Ukraine.”The European Commissioner, responding to a question about whether Serbia could become an EU member without joining sanctions against Russia, said that it would be very difficult for a country that does not share the EU’s strategic foreign-policy positions to make progress.

科斯说:“对于一个不在战略利益上与我们保持一致——即外交和安全政策,或我们共同反对俄罗斯,特别是在俄罗斯对乌克兰战争的背景下——的国家来说,要取得进展恐怕是不可能的。这将非常、非常困难。”

“It will probably not be possible for a country that does not align with us on strategic interests — namely foreign and security policy, or our joint opposition to Russia, particularly in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine — to make progress. It will be very, very difficult,” Kos said.

“学生名单”的官方立场与前总统亚历山大·武契奇在竞选期间的核心警告之一相矛盾:武契奇警告称,“学生名单”获胜最终将意味着塞尔维亚对莫斯科政策的剧变,即实施制裁。

The official postition of the Student's list contradicts one of former President Aleksandar Vučić’s central warnings during the campaign: that a Student List victory would eventually mean a dramatic change in Serbia’s policy towards Moscow in terms of imposing sanctions.

目前没有迹象表明对俄制裁即将成为塞尔维亚外交政策的一部分。鉴于新当局的回应,我们可以得出结论:一切将照常进行。

For now, there is no indication that sanctions against Russia are about to become part of Serbia’s foreign policy. Given the response from the new authorities, we can conclude that it will be business as usual.

“学生名单”的纲领同样保留了塞尔维亚的军事中立政策,并拒绝加入北约。其在科索沃问题上的立场依然坚决反对科索沃单方面宣布独立,以及反对科索沃加入国际组织。

The Student List’s programme also retains Serbia’s policy of military neutrality and rejects NATO membership. Its position on Kosovo remains firmly opposed to Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence and to its membership of international organisations.

你就算拿放大镜去找,也找不到贝尔格莱德新旧当权者在科索沃政策上有任何差异。因此,这头“大象”依然会留在房间里,横亘在塞尔维亚与西方的外交关系之间。我们可以预期紧张局势会有所缓和,措辞会不再那么严厉、威胁也会减少,但不会发生根本性改变。

You could search with a magnifying glass for any difference in policy towards Kosovo between old and new power in Belgrade, and you would not find one. That elephant will therefore remain in the room when it comes to Serbia’s diplomatic relations with the West. We can expect tensions to ease, along with a shift away from harsh rhetoric and threats, but there will be no fundamental change.

这意味着,贝尔格莱德新政府的上台不应被自动解读为传统意义上的地缘政治重新调整。拉多米尔·赛伊契奇教授谈到科索沃时表示:“对我们来说,科索沃是暂时被占领的领土。俄罗斯在科索沃和梅托希亚捍卫塞尔维亚领土完整方面,比这个政权做得更多。虚假的爱国者指责学生缺乏爱国心,但签署《布鲁塞尔协议》和《华盛顿协议》的不是学生,接受‘法德方案’的也不是学生。”

This means that the arrival of new government in Belgrade should not automatically be interpreted as a geopolitical realignment in the traditional sense. Professor Radomir Saičić on Kosovo said: "For us, Kosovo is a temporarily occupied territory. Russia has done more to defend Serbia’s territorial integrity in Kosovo and Metohija than this regime has. Fake patriots accuse the students of lacking patriotism, but it was not the students who signed the Brussels and Washington Agreements, nor did they accept the Franco-German plan."

一个亲欧运动——但令人生疑学生运动本质上是一个“大帐篷”运动,它汇聚了世界观截然不同的人,他们因反对亚历山大·武契奇的统治、批评其政府的本质而团结在一起,而非因意识形态上明确界定的联盟。

A pro-European movement — but a suspicious one The student movement is essentially a “big tent” movement, bringing together people with very different worldviews who were united by their opposition to the rule of Aleksandar Vučić and their criticism of the nature of his government, rather than an ideologically clearly defined alliance.

更可能的情景是一场复杂的平衡术:在与欧盟加强政治和经济合作的同时,保持军事中立,避免对俄罗斯实施制裁,并维持与莫斯科现有的能源和外交联系。这将很难实现。

The more likely scenario is a complicated balancing act: closer political and economic cooperation with the European Union, while maintaining military neutrality, avoiding sanctions against Russia and preserving existing energy and diplomatic links with Moscow. That will be difficult.

欧盟是塞尔维亚最大的经济伙伴,而俄罗斯因能源合作,尤其是其在科索沃问题上的立场,依然至关重要。“学生名单”因此必须调和塞尔维亚政治中常被视为互不相容的两种现实。

The EU is Serbia’s largest economic partner, while Russia remains important because of energy and, above all, its position on Kosovo. The Student List will therefore have to reconcile two realities that have often been presented as mutually exclusive in Serbian politics.

“学生名单”总体上坚定支持欧洲一体化。但它并非传统的亲欧政治组织。它与布鲁塞尔的关系,很可能比一个单纯寻求加速塞尔维亚入欧进程的政府要复杂得多。

The Student List is very broadly pro-European. But it is not a traditional pro-EU political organisation. Its relationship with Brussels is likely to be considerably more complicated than that of a government simply seeking to accelerate Serbia’s EU accession.

“学生名单”领导人伊利亚·斯尔达诺维奇博士对欧盟问题表达得最为直白:“我们将继续走欧洲一体化道路。塞尔维亚早在2000年、26年前就已承诺投身欧洲一体化进程。这项工作将继续,进程也将继续。但我们可以明确承诺的一件事是:我们不会重蹈前政府覆辙,导致塞尔维亚民众对欧洲一体化的支持率在15年间下降20个百分点。这就是净结果,是前政府作为的总体后果。

The leader of the Students’ List, Dr Ilija Srdanović, spoke most openly about the European Union: “We will remain on the path of European integration. Serbia committed itself to the European integration process back in 2000, 26 years ago. That work will continue. The process will continue. What we can certainly promise, however, is that we will not do what the previous government did: allow public support for European integration in Serbia to fall by 20 percentage points over a period of 15 years. That is the net outcome, the overall result of what the previous government did.

我们必将把国内政策与第23章和第24章的要求完全对齐,依据的都是同一套文明价值观:尊重法治与平等、反腐败措施、机构有效运作以及媒体自由。这些章节是通往欧洲一体化进一步进展的主要障碍。” 学生们及其许多支持者对欧盟此前对待塞尔维亚政府的方式深感疑虑。多年来,尽管对民主标准、媒体自由、选举环境和政治权力集中日益担忧,布鲁塞尔仍与武契奇政府保持着密切关系。

We will certainly bring our domestic policies fully into line with Chapters 23 and 24, on the basis of the same civilisational values: respect for the rule of law and equality, anti-corruption measures, the functioning of institutions and media freedom. These chapters are the main obstacle to further progress towards European integration.”The students and many of their supporters are deeply suspicious of the way the European Union dealt with the previous Serbian government. For years, Brussels maintained close relations with Vučić’s administration despite growing concerns over democratic standards, media freedom, the electoral environment and the concentration of political power.

欧洲对塞尔维亚持续发出相互矛盾的信号。在过去近二十年里,欧洲议会态度极为批评,将塞尔维亚描述为“被俘获的国家”,并在其所有报告中严厉批评塞尔维亚当局。欧洲委员会的立场较为温和,在强硬与安抚之间交替;而自乌克兰战争爆发以来——甚至在此之前——欧洲理事会实际上已冻结了塞尔维亚的欧洲一体化进程。因此,有时很难辨明欧洲对塞尔维亚的实际立场究竟是什么。

Europe has constantly sent Serbia divergent signals. From the past almost two decades the European Parliament has been highly critical, describing Serbia as a “captured state” and sharply criticizing the authorities in all of its reports. The European Commission has been more moderate, alternating between a tougher and a more conciliatory approach, while the European Council has, since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine — and even before that — effectively frozen Serbia’s European integration process. As a result, it is sometimes difficult to discern what Europe’s position towards Serbia actually is.

对于许多支持学生运动的人来说,欧盟愿意与塞尔维亚进步党(SNS)政府合作,并非务实外交的表现,而是布鲁塞尔为了稳定而容忍贝尔格莱德威权倾向的证据。

For many people who supported the student movement, the EU’s willingness to cooperate with the SNS government was not a sign of pragmatic diplomacy but evidence that Brussels tolerated authoritarian tendencies in Belgrade for the sake of stability.

西巴尔干:重启的契机 区域层面可能成为新政府行动最快的领域之一。“学生名单”已发出信号,表示应缓和与塞尔维亚邻国的关系,贝尔格莱德应回归更具可预测性、少一些对抗性的区域政策。两个问题将尤为关键。

The Western Balkans: a chance for a reset The regional dimension could prove to be one of the areas where the new government moves fastest. The Student List has signalled that relations with Serbia’s neighbours should be relaxed and that Belgrade should return to a more predictable and less confrontational regional policy. Two issues will be particularly important.

在波黑问题上,预计该运动将坚持尊重《代顿和平协议》以及塞尔维亚对代顿确立的宪制秩序的义务。这可能意味着采取干预较少的做法,并尝试降低贝尔格莱德与萨拉热窝之间的政治温度。

On Bosnia and Herzegovina, the movement is expected to insist on respect for the Dayton Peace Agreement and Serbia’s obligations towards the constitutional order established by Dayton. That could mean a less interventionist approach and an attempt to reduce the political temperature between Belgrade and Sarajevo.

鉴于波黑塞族实体实际领导人米洛拉德·多迪克公开站在现已卸任的政府一边,并维持这一立场长达14年,有理由预期贝尔格莱德的新政府至少将在个人层面上对多迪克采取冷淡立场。

Given that Milorad Dodik, the de facto leader of the Bosnian Serbs, openly sided with the now-former government and maintained that position for 14 years, it is reasonable to expect that the new government in Belgrade will, at the very least, take a cool stance towards him personally.

同样地,在克罗地亚塞尔维亚人问题上,《埃尔杜特协议》以及塞尔维亚少数族裔的权利和政治地位,很可能仍将是一个重要的参考点。

Similarly, when it comes to Serbs in Croatia, the Erdut Agreement and the rights and political status of the Serbian minority are likely to remain an important reference point.

这可能代表塞尔维亚地区政策最大的变化之一:在捍卫塞尔维亚境外塞尔维亚人利益的同时,试图降低与邻国的紧张关系。

This could potentially represent one of the biggest changes in Serbia’s regional policy: defending the interests of Serbs outside Serbia while simultaneously trying to reduce tensions with neighbouring states.

一个不那么对抗性的贝尔格莱德,也可能改善与黑山以及波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的关系,在这两国,塞尔维亚的政治常被波德戈里察和萨拉热窝视为难以预测或过度干预。

A less confrontational Belgrade could also improve relations with Montenegro, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Serbian politics has often been perceived both in Podgorica and Sarajevo as unpredictable or excessively interventionist.

匈牙利:一个特别有趣的考验 与匈牙利的关系将是另一个早期考验。

Hungary: a particularly interesting test Relations with Hungary will be another early test.

前塞尔维亚政府与维克托·欧尔班建立了异常紧密的关系。这种关系涵盖政治、经济和个人层面,布达佩斯成为贝尔格莱德在欧盟内最重要的合作伙伴之一。彼得·马扎尔的出现改变了这一格局。

The previous Serbian government developed an exceptionally close relationship with Viktor Orbán. That relationship was political, economic and personal, and Budapest became one of Belgrade’s most important partners inside the European Union. The arrival of Péter Magyar changes that equation.

“学生名单”政府在政治理念上,很可能与马扎尔的欧洲取向比与欧尔班的治理模式更为接近。这并不意味着塞尔维亚将放弃与匈牙利的经济关系。相反,双方有太多切身利益攸关。但政治上的默契几乎肯定会发挥作用。

A Student List government is likely to have a much closer political affinity with Magyar’s European orientation than with Orbán’s model of government. That does not mean Serbia will abandon its economic relationship with Hungary. On the contrary, there are too many practical interests at stake. But the political chemistry will almost certainly play a role.

问题在于,贝尔格莱德是否会寻求建立一种新型关系,这种关系较少依赖领导人之间的个人纽带,而更多基于两个欧洲邻国之间的制度性合作。

The question is whether Belgrade will seek to build a new relationship with Budapest based less on personal ties between leaders and more on institutional cooperation between two neighbouring European states.

中国:或许是最大的问号 如果说俄罗斯是“学生名单”已发出相对明确信号的领域,那么中国则仍然不明朗得多。

China: perhaps the biggest question mark If Russia is the area where the Student List has already given relatively clear signals, China remains considerably less defined.

在武契奇执政时期,中国企业深度介入塞尔维亚的基础设施、采矿和工业项目。北京已成为仅次于欧盟的重要经济伙伴,其中许多投资无法简单地由新政府取消。

During the Vučić era, Chinese companies became deeply involved in Serbian infrastructure, mining, and industrial projects. Beijing has become an important economic partner, only second to the EU, and many of those investments cannot simply be cancelled by a new government.

与此同时,“学生名单”很可能面临部分选民的压力,要求更严格地审查中国投资——特别是涉及透明度、环保标准、政府采购以及对中国国有企业待遇等问题。

At the same time, the Student List is likely to face pressure from parts of its electorate to scrutinise Chinese investments more closely — particularly questions concerning transparency, environmental standards, public procurement and the treatment of state-owned Chinese companies.

因此,最可能的结果并非与北京彻底决裂。中国在塞尔维亚的经济影响力实在太大,不容许这种情况发生。

The most probable outcome is therefore not a dramatic break with Beijing. China’s economic presence in Serbia is simply too significant for that.

但可能会出现从政治驱动的战略伙伴关系向更常规投资关系的转变,在这种关系中,中国企业将被期望在更清晰的规则和更高的透明度下进行竞争。

But there could be a transition from politically driven strategic partnership towards a more conventional investment relationship, in which Chinese companies are expected to compete under clearer rules and greater transparency.

该运动的外交政策平衡最终可能看起来不那么像是在东西方之间做意识形态选择,而更像是试图以不同条件重新定义塞尔维亚与俄罗斯、中国和欧盟的关系。

The movement’s foreign-policy balance may ultimately look less like an ideological choice between East and West and more like an attempt to redefine Serbia’s relationships with Russia, China and the EU on different terms.

执政带来的难题 然而,最大的不确定性或许与俄罗斯、中国或欧盟毫无关系。而是“学生名单”本身。

The problem that comes with power Perhaps the greatest uncertainty, however, has nothing to do with Russia, China or the EU. It is the Student List itself.

将近一年来,该运动成功隐藏了其内部政治架构。一度有猜测认为,贝尔格莱德大学校长弗拉丹·焦基奇可能成为其政治领袖。最终,他甚至不是议会候选人。这一插曲说明了学生们是多么有效地守住了自己的底牌。因此,对目前关于可能任职者的猜测,也必须保持同样的谨慎。

For almost a year, the movement successfully concealed its internal political architecture. At various points, speculation suggested that the rector of the University of Belgrade, Vladan Đokić, might become its political leader. In the end, he was not even a parliamentary candidate. That episode illustrates just how effectively the students have kept their cards close to their chest. The same caution must therefore be applied to current speculation about possible office holders.

非正式讨论中提到学者、教授拉多米尔·赛西奇(Radomir Saičić)可能成为总统候选人,而经济学家德扬·绍什基奇(Dejan Šoškić)则被提及为可能的总理人选。但这些名字应被视为政治猜测,而非既定决定。“学生名单”已经证明,它能让几乎所有人大跌眼镜。它或许会再次做到这一点。

Informal discussions have mentioned academic and professor Radomir Saičić as a possible presidential candidate, while economist Dejan Šoškić is being mentioned as a possible prime minister. But these names should be treated as political speculation rather than established decisions. The Student List has already demonstrated that it can surprise almost everyone. It may do so again.

从运动到政府 这种转型无论如何都必须迅速完成。该运动的去中心化结构在政治斗争中是一项优势。然而一旦进入政府,去中心化可能会变成瘫痪。公众将想知道谁对经济、外交、国防、内政、安全机构、教育和司法负责。而国家官僚体系将等待指令。

From movement to government The transformation will nevertheless have to happen quickly. The movement’s decentralised structure was an advantage during the political struggle. Once in government, however, decentralisation can become paralysis. The public will want to know who is responsible for the economy, foreign affairs, defence, the interior, the security services, education and the judiciary. And the state bureaucracy will want instructions.

这就是“学生名单”面临其最危险转型的地方:从道德权威走向政治问责。在抗议期间,只需说出需要改变什么就足够了。在政府里,他们将不得不决定如何改变。这种区别至关重要。变革的最初迹象 这场政治地震已经震动了议会以外的机构。

This is where the Student List faces its most dangerous transition: from moral authority to political accountability. During the protests, it was enough to say what needed to change. In government, they will have to decide how. That distinction is enormous. The first signs of change The political earthquake is already shaking institutions beyond parliament.

周三,塞尔维亚公共广播电视台(RTS)台长马尼娅·格尔契奇(Manja Grčić)辞职,距离她获任命仅八个月。她的辞职是在部分RTS员工、非正式员工组织以及“学生名单”要求变革公共广播电视台管理层之后发生的。

On Wednesday, the public broadcaster RTS Director-General Manja Grčić resigned, just eight months after being appointed. Her resignation followed demands from parts of the RTS workforce, informal employee organisations and the Student List for changes in the management of the public broadcaster.

学生们已将对塞尔维亚媒体格局的彻底变革列为核心诉求之一,特别是针对那些直接或间接由公共资金资助的媒体机构。

The students have made a radical transformation of Serbia’s media landscape one of their central demands, particularly concerning outlets that are directly or indirectly financed with public money.

但围绕私营电视台“Informer”发生的事件也凸显了快速过渡的危险。周一晚间,一群抗议者闯入了“Informer”电视台的办公场所,该台是前武契奇政府最坚定的支持者之一。事态升级为抗议者与大楼外的警察以及内部员工之间的对峙。“学生名单”随后与这一闯入行为划清界限,并呼吁保持冷静、坚持非暴力。这是一个重要的区别。清除媒体上的政治影响是一回事。用另一种形式的政治压力取而代之则是完全不同的另一回事。

But the events surrounding the private TV Informer have also demonstrated the danger of a rapid transition. On Monday night, a group of protesters entered the premises of Informer TV, one of the staunchest supporters of the former Vučić's governments. The incident escalated into a confrontation with police outside the building, and workers inside. The Student List subsequently distanced itself from the break-in and called for calm and non-violence. This is an important distinction. Removing political influence from the media is one thing. Replacing one form of political pressure with another would be quite another.

因此,新当局将不仅因其撤换了谁而受到评判,还将因其为后来者制定了何种规则而受到评判。

The new authorities will therefore be judged not only by whom they remove, but by the rules they establish for everyone who comes afterwards.

然而,这些选举证明了媒体专家长期以来指出的一点:媒体在政治发展中的作用被大大高估了。与当局相比,学生们拥有的媒体曝光度非常有限,但他们仍然取得了令人信服的胜利。

However, these elections have demonstrated something that media experts have been pointing out for a long time: the role of the media in political developments is greatly overestimated. Compared with the authorities, the students had very limited media exposure, yet they still won a convincing victory.

这表明,政府和反对派处于两个平行的现实之中。虽然媒体的作用不能完全被忽视,但选举表明,传统媒体已无法再主导叙事。这一趋势在美国和许多欧洲国家清晰可见,塞尔维亚也不例外。

This shows that the government and the opposition were operating in two parallel realities. While the role of the media cannot be entirely dismissed, the elections have demonstrated that traditional media can no longer dictate the narrative. This trend is clearly visible in the United States and many European countries, and Serbia is no exception.

针对安全部门的变革呼声已经出现,包括要求塞尔维亚情报机构领导层辞职。检察官突然开始从抽屉里翻出“被遗忘”的案件,首批逮捕行动也已开始。机构震荡极不可能仅止步于首批辞职。

There are already calls for changes at the security services, including demands for the resignation of the leadership of Serbia’s intelligence apparatus. Prosecutors have suddenly started pulling “forgotten” cases out of their drawers, and the first arrests have begun. It is highly unlikely that the institutional shake-up will end with the first resignations.

总统大选将提供下一次考验,塞尔维亚的政治过渡不会随着议会选举而结束。预计年内将举行总统大选,这意味着“学生名单”必须尽快回答另一个根本性问题:谁代表新塞尔维亚?这将迫使该运动直面其在崛起过程中刻意回避的问题。

The presidential election will provide the next test And Serbia’s political transition will not end with the parliamentary election. Presidential elections are expected before the end of the year, meaning that the Student List must soon answer another fundamental question: who represents the new Serbia? This will force the movement to confront precisely the problem it avoided during its rise.

它将不得不将权力具体化。政府不能是匿名的。必须有人出任总理。部长必须经选举产生,国有企业需要董事,安全部门需要新领导层,公共机构需要能够为决策负责的人选。因此,“学生名单”将不得不以非凡的速度从一场运动转型为一个治理架构。

It will have to personalise power. A government cannot be anonymous. Someone must become prime minister. Ministers must be elected, state-owned companies need directors, the security services need new leadership and public institutions need people capable of taking responsibility for decisions. The Student List will therefore have to move with extraordinary speed from a movement into a governing structure.

选举胜利是由一场集体运动取得的,其最大的政治资产在于没有单一的领军人物。而总统大选和组建新政府则需要相反的条件。

The election victory was achieved by a collective movement whose greatest political asset was that it had no single face. Presidential elections and forming a new Government requires the opposite.

总理必须进行谈判。总统必须在国外代表国家。部长必须做出决策。最终必须有人承担责任,如果这些决策被证明不受欢迎,或者当它们变得不受欢迎时。

A prime minister must negotiate. A president must represent the country abroad. Ministers must make decisions. Somebody must ultimately accept responsibility if, or when those decisions prove unpopular.

这对作为反对派领袖的武契奇来说,将是一个同样艰巨的挑战。他不能再竞选总统,而他对塞尔维亚进步党的绝对主导地位意味着,在过去14年里,没有其他人获得机会崭露头角,成为该党的二号人物。

This will be an equally difficult challenge for Vučić as opposition leader. He can no longer run for president, and his absolute dominance over the Serbian Progressive Party has meant that, over the past 14 years, no one else has been given the opportunity to emerge as the party’s number two.

这就是为什么未来几周可能比选举本身更为重要。“学生名单”已经展示了它懂得如何在不暴露全部战略的情况下获胜。现在它必须证明,它懂得如何在不丧失使其掌权的原则的前提下进行执政。学生们花了一年时间将底牌藏在手中。现在他们必须亮牌。

That is why the coming weeks may be more important than the election itself. The Student List has already shown that it knows how to win without revealing its full strategy. Now it has to demonstrate that it knows how to govern without losing the principles that brought it to power. The students spent a year keeping their cards hidden. They now have to show them.

塞尔维亚——以及欧盟、俄罗斯、中国和西巴尔干国家——将密切注视他们打出的每一张牌。

And Serbia — as well as the EU, Russia, China and the countries of the Western Balkans — will be watching every card they play. Go to accessibility shortcuts

阅读媒体原文 ↗