在以色列于3月加强对黎巴嫩战争之际，阿亚尽管面临风险，仍留在黎巴嫩南部阿巴西耶的家中。她说，一度邻居的房屋遭到以色列袭击。
– During Israel’s intensification of its war on Lebanon in March, Aya stayed at her home in Abbasiyeh, in southern Lebanon, despite the risks. At one point, she says, her neighbour’s house was targeted by an Israeli attack.
在4月最初宣布表面上的停火后，袭击有所平息。但战争的声音并未停止。
The attacks have subsided after an ostensible ceasefire was initially announced in April. But the sounds of war have not ceased.
“周围总有无人机，总有爆炸声，但我们已经练就了厚脸皮，”她告诉半岛电视台。
“There’s always drones around and sounds of detonations, but we’ve grown thick skin,” she told Al Jazeera.
然而在最近几周，围绕以色列自2024年以来可能进行的第三次升级，担忧情绪加剧。许多黎巴嫩人如今处于悬而未决的状态，尤其是那些此前曾经历激烈以色列袭击地区的居民。
In recent weeks, however, fears have intensified around a potential third Israeli intensification since 2024. Many Lebanese are now living in limbo, especially those in areas that previously witnessed intense Israeli attacks.
阿亚说，她的家人为祖父母准备了额外药物，以防新一轮冲突导致难以获取。其他人则在准备包裹和额外食物，并保持电子设备充满电，以防袭击再次开始。
Aya said her family has prepared extra medication for her grandparents, in case a new round of conflict makes it difficult to obtain. Others are preparing bags and extra food, and keeping their electronic devices charged should the attacks start again.
她说，如果以色列袭击再次升级，她会离开家园，而不是像以前那样留下来。
She also said she would leave her home if Israeli attacks intensified again, rather than stay as she had before.
“我没有精力再经历这些了，”她说。相反，她一直在考虑离开黎巴嫩。
“I don’t have the energy for this anymore,” she said. Instead, she has been thinking about leaving Lebanon.
她说：“我真的无法承受再一次流离失所，尤其是看着周围的人照常生活，仿佛什么都没发生。我知道这很正常，但对我来说，精神上太疲惫了。”
“I just can’t handle going through another displacement, especially while watching people around me carry on with their lives as if nothing is happening,” she said. “I know it’s normal, but for me it’s mentally exhausting.”
对以色列升级行动的担忧 黎巴嫩什叶派组织真主党与以色列自2023年10月以来一直处于战争状态。据黎巴嫩卫生部称，自那以来，以色列已在黎巴嫩造成约9000人死亡，主要发生在2024年秋季以及2026年3月和4月的局势升级期间。以色列在每次攻势中都入侵黎巴嫩，此后占领了多达10公里的领土，并在那里设立了所谓的“黄线”。
Fears of an Israeli intensification The Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah and Israel have been at war since October 2023. Since then, Israel has killed around 9,000 people in Lebanon, according to the Lebanese health ministry, mostly during escalations in the autumn of 2024 and in March and April 2026. Israel invaded Lebanon during each offensive and has since occupied up to 10 kilometres of territory where it has established a so-called “Yellow Line”.
在这条线以南，以色列继续摧毁城镇和村庄，同时已使边境地区变得无法居住，可能未来数年都是如此。今年4月宣布了停火，而就在一个多星期前，以色列在不到10分钟内向黎巴嫩发动了100多次袭击，造成350多人死亡。随后在6月，贝鲁特和特拉维夫签署了美国斡旋的框架协议，以建立“试点区”，作为协议的一部分，以色列军队将撤出这些地区，黎巴嫩军队将进驻并解除真主党的武装。
Below that line, Israel continues to destroy towns and villages, while it has already made border areas uninhabitable, possibly for years to come A ceasefire was announced in April, just over a week after Israel launched more than 100 attacks on Lebanon in less than 10 minutes killing more than 350 people. Then in June, Beirut and Tel Aviv signed a US-brokered framework agreement to set up “pilot zones”, as part of which the Israeli military would withdraw from those areas and the Lebanese army would move in to disarm Hezbollah.
在停火和框架协议之后，尽管以色列仍在袭击和摧毁黎巴嫩最南部的房屋和基础设施，真主党与以色列之间的激烈战斗有所缓和。住在黄线以北的人大多不在火力范围内，但能听到持续的爆炸声和无人机声音，有时难以进入自己的土地。近几周，据报道美国总统唐纳德·特朗普考虑与以色列协调，对伊朗发动另一轮袭击。伊朗警告称，如果发生此类袭击，它将对该地区的目标进行报复。这引发了人们对受伊朗支持的真主党是否会恢复自己对以色列发动袭击的疑问。
Following the ceasefire and framework agreement, active fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has eased, despite Israel’s ongoing attacks and destruction of homes and infrastructure in the far south of Lebanon. Those who live above the Yellow Line are mostly out of the line of fire but hear constant explosions and drones, and at times have struggled to access their land In recent weeks, US President Donald Trump has reportedly considered launching another round of attacks on Iran, in coordination with Israel. Iran has warned that if such an attack happens, it would retaliate against targets in the region. This has led to questions over whether Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, would return to conducting its own attacks against Israel.
以色列官员还指责黎巴嫩军方未能履行框架协议中的义务——黎巴嫩军方对此予以否认——分析人士称，这可能是以色列试图为在黎巴嫩发动新一轮轰炸行动寻找借口。
Israeli officials have also accused the Lebanese army of failing to meet its part of the framework deal – something the Lebanese army denies – in what analysts say might be an effort to build justification for another bombing campaign in Lebanon.
“谈到黎巴嫩，以色列不需要这种挑衅，”黎巴嫩政治分析人士穆罕默德·巴齐（Mohamad Bazzi）告诉半岛电视台。“在4月17日停火协议下，以色列摧毁了南部比停火前更多的地区。以色列一次又一次地表明，它愿意执行自己的政策，尽可能摧毁黎巴嫩南部，使其无法居住，并惩罚什叶派社区，如果美国和以色列大规模重启对伊朗的战争，没有理由认为它不会继续做同样的事情。”
“When it comes to Lebanon, Israel doesn’t need that instigation,” Mohamad Bazzi, a Lebanese political analyst, told Al Jazeera. “It destroyed more of the south under the ceasefire of April 17 than before it. Again and again, Israel has shown its willingness to carry out its policies, to destroy as much of south Lebanon as possible, to make it uninhabitable, and to punish the Shia community and there is no reason it won’t do more of the same if the US and Israel restart the Iran war on a large scale.”
行囊已备，电池已充电2024年7月，拉米兹（Ramez，出于安全考虑不愿使用真名）正坐在贝鲁特南郊哈雷特赫里克（Haret Hreik）的卧室里，这时他听到巨大的爆炸声。不久之后，邻近的建筑物倒塌，砸中了他的公寓。从那以后，他一直住在家人位于贝鲁特东南约半小时车程处的第二套住所里。
Bags packed, batteries charged In July 2024, Ramez, who did not want to use his real name for security reasons, was sitting in his bedroom in Beirut’s southern suburb of Haret Hreik when he heard loud explosions. Soon after, the neighbouring building collapsed on his apartment Since then, he has stayed in his family’s second home, about a half-hour drive southeast of Beirut.
“对我来说，战争从未真正停止过，”他告诉半岛电视台。“入睡是失眠、噩梦或惊恐发作之间的赌博。即使世界上每个国家都销毁了每一枚炸弹、每一颗子弹和每一支枪，创伤也会一直留在那里。”他说，由于担心袭击可能重新开始，他的家人推迟了返回位于贝鲁特南郊（被称为达希耶）的家的计划。“就我个人而言，我甚至无法考虑在那里睡觉，而不幻想那栋建筑再次倒塌在我身上。”拉米兹说，他一直保持电池和充电宝充满电，水源充足数月，汽车油箱加满。
“The war for me never really stopped,” he told Al Jazeera. “Going to sleep is a gamble between insomnia, nightmares or panic attacks. Even if every country in the world disposed of every single bomb and every single bullet and every single gun, the trauma will stay there.”He said his family has postponed returning to his home in Beirut’s southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, over concerns the attacks could restart. “Personally, I can’t possibly even consider sleeping there without hallucinating the building collapsing in on me again.”Ramez said he is keeping his batteries and power banks charged, his water supply steady for months and his car’s petrol tank full.
其他接受半岛电视台采访的来自达希耶或南部的人表示，他们一直保持着随身包已打包好。
Other people interviewed by Al Jazeera who are from Dahiyeh or the south said they keep go-bags packed.
“人们已经筹划了几个月，”塔赫里尔中东政策研究所非常驻研究员卡里姆·萨菲丁（Karim Safieddine）告诉半岛电视台。“过去几个月，达希耶一直没有挤满人。夜晚，那里总会稍微空一些，每个人都有一条非常、非常精妙、非常快速的逃生路线。”经济压力 尽管黎巴嫩许多人因又一轮激烈战斗而陷入普遍焦虑，但人们也感受到了经济的紧迫。世界银行8月表示，预计黎巴嫩今年通胀率将上升至17.5%。分析人士担心，这可能带来严重的安全后果。
“People have been planning for a few months,” Karim Safieddine, a non-resident fellow with the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, told Al Jazeera. “Dahiyeh hasn’t been filled with people in the past few months. At night, it always empties a bit and everyone has a very, very delicate escape route that’s very quick.”Economic pain While general anxiety has gripped many in Lebanon over another round of intense fighting, people are also feeling the economic crunch. The World Bank said in August that it expects inflation in Lebanon to rise to 17.5 percent this year. And analysts fear that could have severe security consequences.
“随着这个循环一再重复，人们会被磨耗，耗尽积蓄和善意，我认为这增加了社会爆炸的可能性，”巴齐（Bazzi）说。“黎巴嫩社会将指责真主党挑衅以色列，并由此[一些人将指责]整个什叶派社区。”来自黎巴嫩南部纳巴提耶的黎巴嫩分析人士贾德·迪拉蒂（Jad Dilati）表示，一些家庭继续为黎巴嫩其他地区的公寓支付租金，目的是“以防另一场战争爆发，确保有备用住所”。
“As this cycle repeats itself, people get worn down, exhaust their savings and their goodwill, and I think that adds to the possibility of social explosion,” Bazzi said. “Lebanese society will blame Hezbollah for instigating against Israel and by extension [some will blame] the entire Shia community.”Jad Dilati, a Lebanese analyst from Nabatieh, in southern Lebanon, said that some families have continued to pay rent for apartments in other parts of Lebanon in order “to secure alternative accommodation in case another war breaks out”.
但经过三年的战争，他说，“这是不是每个人都能负担得起的特权”。
But after three years of war, he said, “that’s a privilege that not everyone can afford”.
分析人士还警告，另一轮战斗可能加剧该国的宗派紧张局势。他们说，以色列一直试图在黎巴嫩煽动内部冲突，通常是通过警告南部非什叶派社区不要收容流离失所者。而人们在经济上本已勉强维持生计，另一轮战斗可能引发宗派火花。“这是一种可能因意外事件而爆炸的易燃混合物，”巴齐说。
Analysts also warned that another round of fighting could increase sectarian tensions in the country. They say Israel has tried to foment internal strife in Lebanon, often by warning non-Shia communities in the south against hosting displaced people. And with people already barely getting by economically, another round of fighting could cause a sectarian spark. “It is a combustible mix that could explode through something unexpected,” Bazzi said.