在中期选举中破灭的迷思之一，是共和党能通过选区划分操纵赢得众议院控制权，以及最高法院试图帮助他们。共和党很愚蠢，而民主党欠大法官们又一次道歉。
Among the myths that exploded in the midterm elections is that Republicans could gerrymander their way to House control, and that the Supreme Court tried to help them. The GOP was dumb, and Democrats owe the Justices another apology.
[音频] 吉姆·乔丹是众议院共和党的下一任领袖 / 加州财富税暂时失败 随着更多胶着选战尘埃落定，共和党在选区划分操纵上搞砸的程度正变得更加清晰。特朗普总统一如既往地发起了这场自毁的闹剧，要求德克萨斯州共和党利用其当时压倒性的多数优势重新划分众议院选区，以争取五个额外席位。民主党则通过重新划分加州选区，为民主党创造了五个额外席位作为回应。
[audio] Jim Jordan Is the House GOP’s Next Leader / California’s Wealth Tax Fails, for Now The magnitude of the GOP gerrymander bungle is coming into clearer view as more close races are called. President Trump started the self-defeating fiasco, as he so often does, by demanding that Texas Republicans use their then towering majorities to redraw House districts to gain five more seats. Democrats responded by redrawing California districts to create five more for Democrats.
结果如何？如果目前的计票趋势保持不变，加州共和党将仅拥有52个众议院席位中的四个，因为民主党获得了那五个席位。但共和党仅赢得了他们在德克萨斯州希望获得的席位中的一个，而民主党则翻转了另外两个被认为安全的共和党选区。共和党希望保住或在墨西哥边境赢得的西班牙裔多数选区，成了民主党的大胜。民主党在德克萨斯州将实现净增一席。
The result? If current ballot counting trends hold, California Republicans will now have only four of 52 House seats, as Democrats gained those five. But Republicans picked up only one of the seats they hoped to gain in Texas, while Democrats flipped two other GOP districts thought to be safe. The Hispanic-majority seats the GOP hoped to keep or gain on the Mexican border were a Democratic rout. Democrats will come out with a net gain of one in Texas.
共和党试图通过在别处重新划分选区来对抗加州，但这也以失败告终。在佛罗里达州，共和党失去了所有四个他们以重新划分选区为目标争取增益的选区。共和党重新划分北卡罗来纳州选区，希望在目前10比4的多数优势上再增加一席。然而，由于共和党将共和党选民分散得太薄，民主党将在那里赢得至少五个席位，甚至可能更多。
Republicans tried to counter California by redrawing districts elsewhere, but that was a bust too. In Florida Republicans lost all four of the redrawn districts they targeted for gains. The GOP redrew North Carolina’s districts in the hope of adding one to its current 10-4 majority. Yet because Republicans spread GOP voters thin, Democrats will pick up at least five and maybe more there.
这一切让左派窃笑，这也可以理解。但你不会听到的是，民主党承认他们在选区划分操纵问题上对最高法院的判断有多么错误。回想一下，在最高法院于四月就路易斯安那州诉卡莱案作出裁决后，民主党曾预测吉姆·克劳法将卷土重来，该裁决认定各州不得以《投票权法案》为借口，以种族为基础进行选区划分操纵。
All of this has the left chortling, and understandably so. But what you won’t hear is an admission of how wrong Democrats were about the Supreme Court on gerrymanders. Recall how Democrats predicted the return of Jim Crow after the Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais in April that states can’t use the Voting Rights Act as a pretext to gerrymander based on race.
田纳西州和阿拉巴马州的共和党人着手重绘众议院选区地图，旨在取消多数少数族裔选区，以期在各自州内再赢得一个席位。结果又是适得其反。田纳西州共和党众议员斯科特·德贾莱在争取第九个任期的竞选中落后于民主党人维多利亚·布罗德里克，而他在2024年以超过40个百分点的优势击败过对方。德贾莱先生可以怪罪共和党的选区划分，该划分将郊区选民纳入其选区，使他在蓝色浪潮面前变得脆弱。
Republicans in Tennessee and Alabama proceeded to redraw House maps to eliminate majority-minority districts with the goal of picking up another seat in each state. Another backfire. Tennessee GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais is trailing in his bid for a ninth term to Democrat Victoria Broderick, whom he defeated by more than 40 points in 2024. Mr. DesJarlais can blame the GOP gerrymander, which added suburban voters to his district and left him vulnerable to the blue wave.
阿拉巴马州民主党众议员肖马里·菲格斯在一个以白人为主的新配置选区中击败了共和党州众议员雷特·马奎斯。他的胜利反驳了左翼的成见，即认为需要种族选区划分才能选出黑人政治家。这位黑人民主党人在一个白人占多数的选区中赢得了54%的选票。
Alabama Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures defeated GOP state Rep. Rhett Marques in a newly configured district that is mostly white. His victory refutes the left-wing conceit that racial gerrymanders are needed to elect black politicians. The black Democrat won 54% of the vote in a majority-white district.
共和党将在下届国会继续占据阿拉巴马州七个选区中的五个，以及田纳西州九个选区中可能的八个，与之前相同。但取消种族选区划分使两州的部分选区竞争更加激烈。大胆希望一下，这可能会促使政治家们必须吸引更广泛的选民群体，从而鼓励更多的政治温和。
Republicans will hold five of Alabama’s seven districts and likely eight of Tennessee’s nine in the next Congress, same as before. But eliminating racial gerrymanders has made some districts in both states more competitive. Dare to hope, this could encourage more political moderation by requiring politicians to appeal to a broader spectrum of voters.
哦，别忘了大法官埃琳娜·卡根错误的哀叹。在大选前不久——糟糕的时机奖得主——她批评保守派同僚在“卡莱斯案”和“鲁乔诉共同事业案”（2019年）中的做法，该案件将联邦法院排除在监管党派选区划分之外。她声称，法院“使自己对其裁决对政治体制运作产生的极其有害影响视而不见”。
Oh, and don’t forget the mistaken lament of Justice Elena Kagan. Shortly before the election—bad timing prize—she criticized her conservative colleagues for Callais and Rucho v. Common Cause (2019), which removed federal courts from policing partisan gerrymanders. The Court had “blinded itself to the very deleterious effects of their rulings on how the political system works,” she claimed.
她说，“鲁乔案”迫使候选人“远离中间，走向两翼，走向极端，因为任何人唯一需要担心的就是初选被挑战”。中期选举结果至少证明了后一种断言是错误的，因为蓝色浪潮在表面上安全的选区击败了共和党人。
Rucho, she said, pushed candidates “away from the center, toward the wings, toward the extremes, because the only thing anybody has to worry about anymore is being primaried.”The midterms showed at least the latter assertion to be false, as the blue wave toppled Republicans in ostensibly safe districts.
民主党去年在联邦法院对北卡罗来纳州共和党的选区操纵提出挑战，但败诉了。如果没有“鲁乔案”的判决，他们本可能胜诉——并因此在北卡罗来纳州赢得更少的席位。顺便说一下，尽管有人声称新选区地图歧视黑人，但北卡罗来纳州仍有五名黑人民主党候选人获胜。
Democrats last year lost a challenge to the GOP gerrymander in North Carolina in federal court. If not for Rucho, they might have prevailed—and consequently picked up fewer seats in North Carolina. By the way, five black Democratic candidates won in North Carolina despite the claim that the new map discriminates against blacks.
不得不为前民主党籍司法部长埃里克·霍尔德因选区操纵反噬而发表的得意言论所表现出的认知失调感到好笑。他在大选前声称共和党的选区操纵威胁民主，现在却说民主党的胜利表明选民可以被信任来制衡划图越权行为。“美国民主再次得到捍卫，”他说。到底哪句话才算数，老兄？
You have to laugh at the cognitive dissonance of former Democratic Attorney General Eric Holder’s gleeful statement on the gerrymander backfire. After claiming before the election that the GOP gerrymanders threaten democracy, he now says the Democratic victories show that voters can be trusted to check map-making overreaches. “Once again, American democracy has been defended,” he said. Which is it, mate?
明年请关注霍尔德在律师马克·埃利亚斯的协助下，利用州议会中新出现的进步派多数，操纵各州选区地图，以巩固民主党在国会众议院新获得的多数地位。到时候你们不会听到他们——或他们的媒体啦啦队——再抱怨“鲁乔案”了。[视频] 《华尔街日报》观点：民主党的猎狗逮住了公交车
Next year watch Mr. Holder, aided by lawyer Marc Elias, move to use the new progressive majorities in state legislatures to gerrymander their state maps to entrench the new House Democratic majority in Congress. You won’t hear them—or their media cheerleaders—complaining about Rucho now. [video] WSJ Opinion: The Democratic Dogs Catch the Bus